Paris was the city of love for followers with best bet Cori Gauff ($6) winning the title. She got the better of world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the final but the duo are part of a long list of names that are yet to add their name to the list of Wimbledon winners. Barbora Krejcikova was an unlikely champion 12 months ago but has played very little tennis since. The tournament is more open than betting suggests as none of Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff, Zheng, Keys and Andreeva have made it past the quarters here.
Marketa Vondrousova ($13): Defeated Ons Jabeur in the final two years ago to claim her maiden major title and after dealing with a host of injuries earlier in the season put together a tremendous run at the Berlin Open a fortnight ago. She defeated Keys, Shnaider, Jabeur and Sabalenka on her way to winning the title with the 6-2 6-4 demolition of Sabalenka a standout. Has played her best tennis on these courts and brings winning form with her to SW19 – a key component in women’s tennis. Could meet Sabalenka in the 3rd round and we will be doubling down on her if that is the case!
Liudmila Samsonova ($67): Hits a very heavy ball and tick the ‘recent form’ box. Posted wins over Osaka, Anisimova and Pegula before losing to our other value bet (Wang) in Berlin. Her previous form on clay is also noteworthy as she made the finals in Strasbourg and followed that up with a 4th Round showing at the French Open. Her game suits this surface and is in the bottom quarter which I consider an open section of the draw.
Xinyu Wang ($81): Using the Berlin Open as the best form guide for Wimbledon as those you were beaten early such as Anisimova and Pegula have since gone on to make deep runs in subsequent tournaments. Xinyu Wang made the finals in Berlin (lost to Vondrousova) as a qualifier. Beat Jabeur in qualifiers before knocking over Kasatkina, Gauff, Badosa and Samsonova in consecutive matches. Will start outsider against Muchova in the opening round where we will be backing her and be thankful as she will then pinch the seeded players section in the draw.
Elena Rybakina ($7.50): Was on the forgets list at the French Open with the comment regarding her being “the target for her will be to prepare for Wimbledon where her serve makes her a genuine threat.” Wimbledon has arrived and it is where she achieved her lone major success in 2022. Made the quarter finals and semi finals in the two years since and am expecting her to make a deep run.
A very long list of forgets and most of them are price related. The likes of Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff, Andreeva etc are all way under the odds when you consider the depth of the draw and the sheer number of dangerous players that they will face in the early rounds.
Aryna Sabalenka ($3.90): Sabalenka may be the world number 1, but the draw has not been kind to her. She could meet Vondrousova in the 3rd Round who just blew her off the court in Berlin a few weeks ago. Mertens, Svitolina, Keys and Badosa are among other dangerous names in her quarter and that comes before having to win at least two more matches against top quality opposition. Need $5 or better to be interested.
Gauff ($9.00): Delivered in a huge way for us at the French Open but the key to success is knowing when to jump ship. Has a host of tricky opponents in her section including Yastremska, Kenin, Samsonova and Rybakina. I note that she has made the 4th Round or better in her last 7 major appearances but that streak could come to an end.
Mirra Andreeva ($19): Lost as an overwhelming favourite to Boisson at the French Open and it seems to have taken a toll on her mentally. Has compiled a 1-2 record on grass since which includes a 6-0 loss in the deciding set against Magdalena Frech. She could meet Frech in the 3rd Round and you can be sure that we will be backing Frech at the huge price if that eventuates.
Qinwen Zheng ($26): Has been consistent all season long but has drawn Siniakova in the opening round. Sounds like an easy assignment but it is not as Siniakova has won both prior meetings between them on grass. The first was in the opening round of Wimbledon two years ago and the other was in Berlin last year – both of which ended in straight sets wins for Siniakova.
Iga Swiatek ($8.00): Don’t be fooled by Swiatek’s run to the final in Bad Homburg. The truth of the matter is that if Swiatek is not winning major tournaments on clay, she will not be winning them on any other surface – especially grass. This is the only major which she is yet to make it beyond the quarters and that will not change in the next fortnight.
Jasmine Paolini ($34): Made consecutive major finals at the French Open and Wimbledon last year but her form has tailed off. Have her breezing through the first few rounds but is not playing well enough to beat power hitters in consecutive matches in the second week.
Ons Jabeur ($67): Grass will always provide her with the best opportunity of winning that elusive major, but I cannot look past back-to-back losses against Siniakova and Pavlyuchenkova in the lead up. Will have the crowd on her side and has the best slice backhand in the field but that is not enough.
Madison Keys ($19): Was an unexpected winner at the Australian Open earlier this year but there will be no more surprises from the American. Has underachieved in this tournament when you consider her serve and forehand so will be betting around her.
Jessica Pegula ($23): Have always said that recent form is the best indicator for women’s tennis and a run to the final of Bad Homburg should put Pegula into calculations. What that result does not take into account is that she has made it past the 3rd round in only 1 of her prior 5 appearances at Wimbledon. No thanks.
Winner
Best: Vondrousova ($13)
Value: Samsonova ($67), Xinyu Wang ($81)
Quarter Betting
Quarter 1: Vondrousova ($4.50), Badosa ($21)
Quarter 2: Shnaider ($12), Siniakova ($19)
Quarter 3: Xinyu Wang ($11), Navarro ($8.00)
Quarter 4: Rybakina ($3.50), Samsonova ($12)