Te Aroha hosts a seven-race program on Sunday for Day 2 of the two-day Great New Zealand Jumps Carnival, with the track rated a Heavy10 and the rail in the true position. The forecast is mostly clear, however with racing having taken place here in the same rail position just two days ago, the track is expected to remain Heavy throughout.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the seven races at the Te Aroha meeting on Sunday 20 September below:
The Finnster (#9) makes his jumps debut here for the Chrissy Bambry stable in this 0-1 win hurdle event. He comes here rock hard fit deep into his prep, which should have him ready for this assignment. He is a free-running galloper on the flat who will likely look to emulate that racing pattern over the hurdles here. He will appreciate the Heavy conditions underfoot and can run a big race despite taking on some hurdle winners.
| 9. The Finnster (2) J: Jay Kozaczek 64kg 54410 T: Chrissy Bambry |
Taika (#7) is a handy hurdler who was a mightily impressive winner here on Day 1 of the carnival just two days ago, stretching clear for a monstrous 17L win. He now rises slightly in grade to this 0-1 win steeplechase, but it is hard to see how any of these could beat him if he replicates that effort from 48 hours ago. He comes here as fit as he can be and should get very similar conditions to work with. If he handles the very short turnaround, he will take plenty of beating.
| 7. Taika (3) J: Dean Parker 68.5kg 85421 T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Rocky Belle (#2) comes here off a very brave effort last start for 2nd at Hawera, where he was parked wide without cover throughout and kept fighting hard to the line but came up short. Remaining at 1600m on a testing Heavy track looks ideal here. Drawing the inside on a possibly tired track isn’t ideal, but trusting Dean Parker to navigate a path away from the fence. Just needs to cope with the weight to be going very close in what is a very winnable maiden highweight.
| 2. Rocky Belle (1) J: Dean Parker 67kg 05532 T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Prince Turbo (#4) built to an emphatic win over the big fences last start at Woodville, where he put his rivals to the sword late and ran the 4800m out strongly. He has had a flat trial since that win two weeks ago, so he comes into this 6200m fitness test as ready as he can possibly be. He looks well placed just above the minimum with the country’s leading jumps rider in Kylan Wiles aboard. Expect him to position handy to the speed from the inside gate and give a good account of himself here. Peaking at the right time and looks a solid each-way chance at the price.
| 4. Prince Turbo (1) Scratched: | |||
Teleost (#2) is a 4yo son of Darci Brahma having his second start here for Kevin Myers. He was desperately unlucky on debut at Woodville, where he was carted back by a tiring runner but thundered through the line for 2nd. He should be better for the debut outing and now looks suited stepping out over 2200m here off that effort over 2000m. Another Heavy track won’t concern him either, looks clearly the horse to beat if he copes with the weight.
| 2. Teleost (2) J: Dean Parker 67kg 2 T: Kevin Myers | |||
| Debuted last start and did a good job to finish second over 2000m at New Plymouth Raceway. Well backed that day so the effort came as no surprise. Will derive great benefit from that experience and looks the testing material. | |||
Derryman (#4) was a touch one-paced when the sprint went on turning for home last start at Ellerslie, before running into backsides once he got going in the straight and settling for 4th. He has plenty of racing under his belt this campaign, including a couple of hurdling starts through the winter, which should have him ready for a testing track. He maps to settle back of midfield with cover from his wide barrier, where he should be blending into the race late in the best part of the track. Hard to be overly confident in an amateur riders race, but he looks a leading contender nonetheless.
| 4. Derryman (10) J: Zoe Pawson 68.5kg 10554 T: Jo Rathbone | |||
| Game effort last start when he finished a close fourth at Ellerslie over 2200m. Shapes as one of the key chances. | |||
Trainwreck (#1) comes here off a last-start 2nd in R65 company at Wanganui, where he was beaten a narrow margin in a vastly stronger field than he meets here. He looks suited sliding back to R60 company as well as remaining on a testing Heavy track over 1400m. Expect Kylan Wiles to be positive from the outset from his low draw, where he should be able to dictate his own path in the better lanes off the fence. Looks the one to beat, just needs to cope with the big weight.
| 1. Trainwreck (3) J: Kylan Wiles 67kg 76322 T: Rochelle Lockett | |||
| Gutsy effort last start when he finished a close second at Wanganui over 1340m. Nicely drawn. Expected to be very competitive. | |||
