Evan Psarras previews Round 9 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
Magic Round has arrived, and the good news is there will not be a repeat of last week’s 18 sin bins. The NRL has addressed the farcical scenes of Round 8 and without the sin bin lottery we can bet with more confidence this week. The Sharks are on the short turnaround after a nail-biting golden point loss to the Tigers with Kayal Iro se to make a timely return after Hiroti went down injured last week. The Eels were impressive winners prior to last week’s bye and outside of Tuilagi’s one match suspension, there are no major changes to report.
Head To Head
The Eels won their only battle last season 34-22 in a match where Dylan Brown and Will Penisini both scored a try. Mitchell Moses has 3 tries in his last 3 appearances in this matchup while Will Kennedy leads the way for the Sharks with 4 tries in his last 2 against the Eels. Both teams have scored 20+ points in 7 of the last 14 meetings including the last two which produced 56 total match points each. The Sharks have won 6 of the last 9 including each of the last 5 when listed as a home favourite.
Stats That Matter
Consistency has been an issue for the Eels. They have won only 1 of their last 5 following a loss with the Over hitting in 80% of those games. Of most concern in those games is their defence with 50+ points conceded in their last two games on the back of a win. Moreover, the Over is 5-0 in the Eels last 5 games at Suncorp Stadium which suggests a high scoring contest. The Eels have won only 2 of their last 9 as an away underdog and have failed to cover the line in their last 5 when installed as the outsider against the Sharks.
Prediction
Not prepared to place any trust in the Eels despite them having a significant advantage with respect to rest. Do believe the short turnaround and extensive travel to start the season will have an impact on the Sharks defence. There have been 44+ total points in 4 of the 5 opening Magic Round games and with that in mind, have made the Overs the clear best bet. Both teams to score 20+ is a good play with Kennedy, Mulitalo, Moses and Addo-Carr the best anytime tryscorer options.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 46.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Mitchell Moses Anytime Tryscorer ($4.40)
Same Game Multi: Mulitalo Anytime Try Scorer, Kennedy Anytime Try Scorer, Addo-Carr Anytime Try Scorer ($9.69)
The Roosters thumped the Dragons on ANZAC Day for the second year in a row with James Tedesco and Sandon Smith leading the way. They are yet to win consecutive games this season and Trent Robinson has stuck with the same 17 as last week in an attempt to end the drought. The Dolphins were on the verge of a fourth consecutive win when they took an 18-point lead into half time against the Raiders but a run of 30 unanswered points from the Green Machine brought their winning run to a halt. Daniel Saifiti was the latest casualty for the Dolphins but that is offset by the return of Kaufusi and Marshall-King.
Head To Head
The Dolphins first ever game in the NRL came against the Roosters in a match that they scored a 28-18 upset win. The Roosters have since won the last two meetings 30-14 and 40-34. Daniel Tupou has scored a try in 2 of his 3 appearances against the Roosters but the name that has dominated the score sheet in this series is Isaako. He has scored a try in each of the three meetings between them with 4 tries in total. This will be the 4th time in as many games that the Roosters have been installed favourites against the Dolphins but they have successfully covered the line only once in three prior attempts.
Stats That Matter
This is a tough spot for the Roosters. They are 0-5 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 games following a win and have averaged a very low 11.5ppg in those matches. As has been mentioned in the past, the Dolphins are a different team when they play in the sunshine state and have won 4 of their last 5 games at Suncorp Stadium. Despite having registered only 3 wins this season, the Roosters have made fast starts. They have scored the opening try in 7 of their 8 games played – something the Dolphins have accomplished only three times this season.
Prediction
Early momentum and possession will play a part in the outcome of this clash. The Dolphins have won their prior two games played in Magic Round which includes a first half onslaught against the Sharks two years ago. A repeat of that would not be a surprise and would be led by the spine of Tabuai-Fidow and Katoa. The return of Marshall-King at hooker is a big boost and will provide them with additional speed around the ruck. Like the Dolphins to win a very high scoring match.
Tips
Best Bet: Dolphins WIN ($1.90)
Value: 61 Points or More ($4.60)
Same Game Multi: Dolphins +6.5, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try Scorer, Isaako Anytime Try Scorer ($4.26)
The Rabbitohs may have lost their third game in a row but for the second time in as many weeks showed tremendous fight when it looked like they would get completely torn apart. Sadly, fans travelling to Brisbane for the weekend feast of footy will not get to see Latrell Mitchell as he will serve a one-match ban for a high shot on Faalogo. The Knights welcomed back Dylan Lucas last week, but he did not help their cause as they crashed to a 5th straight loss. Attack continues to be their biggest issue and there have been no signs of improvement in the last month.
Head To Head
It has been some time since these two have played out a tight contest with the last 5 meetings decided by a margin of 12 or more points. The Knights have won the last two by 19+ points and this one is unlikely to be close as both teams have scored 20+ in only 2 of the last 16 clashes. Only 3 of the last 7 meetings have produced 40+ total match points but that does not mean that we will not see a standout individual performance. There have been 10 instances of a player scoring 2+ tries in the last 6 meetings so look for at least one player to bag a double.
Stats That Matter
Yet another consolation try in the dying minutes was not enough to disguise the Knights attacking deficiencies. The Under is 4-0 in the Knights last 4 away games and they have consistently been involved in the lowest scoring match of the round with an average of 31.1 total match points in their games this season. That trend is highly likely to continue this week as the Under is 8-0 in the Rabbitohs last 8 games – largely due to the tactics employed by Wayne Bennett. The Knights conceded double to Jackson Ford and Adam Pompey last week with Stonestreet doing so in Round 7. The Bunnies have scored 65% of their tries down the left third of attack so their left winger is the best option in try scorer markets – especially when you consider that Jack Wighton scored a double after being shifted there midway through the game last week.
Prediction
Two weeks ago, the Bunnies should have lost by 50 to the Bulldogs and last week’s loss to the Storm was another example of how tough they are. Despite having to make 60 more tackles than the Storm and losing the yardage battle (1887m to 1382m) they managed to lose by only 8 points. The Knights have been solid defensively which is great and zero threat with the ball – the ultimate combination for a bet on the Unders. The Under in this match is the best bet of Magic Round with the Rabbitohs by 13+ and Tass to score a double representing great value.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Isaiah Tass 2 or more tries ($4.25)
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs WIN, Tass Anytime Try Scorer, To Score 20+ points – Only South Sydney ($4.77)
A polished performance against the Knights helped the Warriors to 5th win in their last 6 and subsequently solidified their position in the top 4. The Cowboys are hot on their heels following a 4th consecutive win. They trailed the Titans 18-6 but went on a scoring spree with 44 points in as many minutes to win 50-18. These are two of the more settled squads in the last month and it has shown with the respective coaches naming the same starting 13 that earned them wins last week.
Head To Head
This series has surprisingly been dominated by the Warriors in recent years. Winning 6 of the last 8 meetings is solid whichever way you look at it but what makes it more impressive is that only one of those games have been played in New Zealand. The Warriors have scored 22 or more points in all but one of those games with the duo of Nicoll-Klokstad and Rocco Berry scoring two tries a piece in last year’s 42-12 win in Townsville.
Stats That Matter
The data highlights the current form of these two sides. Not only have the Cowboys won their last 4 but they have covered the line in each of their last 5 games. They have averaged 31.5ppg during their 4-game win streak and have successfully held their opponents to 20 or less on each occasion. The Under has held on in 57% of their away games in the last year including each of their last three leading into this contest. The Warriors have been harder to gauge with respect to the total as there has been an average of 32 total match points in their last 3 home games but the Over has hit in 4 of their last 5 games played on Australian soil.
Prediction
The Warriors and Cowboys sit in the top 8 despite their slow starts. Both have scored the opening try only twice so far this season. Adam Pompey has had the honours both times for the Warriors and I like his chances as the Cowboys right defensive third is responsible for conceding 48% of the tries scored against them. The Warriors lead the NRL in completion rate (82%) and when you combine that with solid defence you are able to avoid conceding consecutive tries in a short period the way the Titans did last week. Both rank in the bottom 4 for offloads so this game will be played largely through the middle third. Unders.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 1st Try Scorer – Adam Pompey ($9.50)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 Either team by less than 12.5, Pompey Anytime Tryscorer, Alt Total under 55.5 points ($4.51)
There’s no place like Leichhardt Oval on a Sunday afternoon and the wishes of the Tigers faithful were granted as Adam Doueihi slotted a penalty goal in golden point to hand the home side a valuable two points. In contrast, the Dragons were never in the contest on ANZAC Day against the Roosters and several players have made way as a result. Lyhkan King-Togia replaces Lachlan Ilias at halfback and Corey Allan comes in on the wing for Sione Finau.
Head To Head
The Dragons have won 5 of the last 6 meetings including each of the last 3 but there hasn’t been much between them with 4 of the last 6 clashes decided by no more than 6 points. There have been no more than 46 total match points in 5 of the last 6 encounters and 12 of the last 15 dating further back. Kyle Flanagan crossed for a try in each of the two battles between them last season and could look to play a more prominent role with a debutant alongside him in the halves.
Stats That Matter
This is a profitable spot to be backing the Dragons as they have covered the line in 9 of their last 13 games following a loss. The Under has held on in 69% of those games and has also held on in 6 of their last 7 matches played interstate. That is countered by the Tigers 6-1 Over record in games after a win in the last year but it’s worth noting that there has been an average of 43.3 total match points in Tigers games this season. This one may be taking place at a neutral venue, but the Tigers are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 when listed as a home favourite.
Prediction
Galvin’s return to first grade was accompanied by a win but I do not like the Tigers in this spot – favourites interstate following a win. Terrell May continues to lead the way from the front, but the Dragons have enough size and depth in their forwards rotation to contain him. The Roosters carved up the Dragons on the edges and out wide but the likes of Seyfarth and Doueihi are far from dangerous when it comes to creating. They have combined for only 3 linebreaks this season and will be easily contained. Dragons to post a narrow win in a low scoring contest. Gutherson has been quiet in the last few weeks, but I expect him to attack the left edge which could see Corey Allan cross for a try in his return to the NRL.
Tips
Best Bet: Dragons +1.5 ($1.90)
Value: Dragons by 1-6 ($5.25)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 – Either Team by less than 12.5, Allan Anytime Try Scorer, Under 46.5 points ($6.35)
The Bulldogs were bombarded in the opening 30 minutes by the Broncos. They trailed 34-0 at half time and their undefeated start to the season ended abruptly. To make matters worse they will be without the trio of Burton, Curran and Tupouniua who will all serve suspensions. Bailey Hayward will line up at five-eight with Taaffe and Suluka-Fifita coming onto the bench. The news was just as bad for the Titans who were thrashed 50-18 by the Cowboys – their fourth consecutive loss. David Fifita has been dropped as Des Hasler goes in search of a response.
Head To Head
This will be their second meeting this season with the Bulldogs dominant 40-24 winners at Belmore Sports Ground in Round 2. The Bulldogs had 7 different try scorers in that game including Mahoney, Mann, Montoya, Preston, Salmon and Tracey who will all line up for this one. Interestingly, the trio of Mahoney, Preston and Tracey have scored in their last two appearances against the Titans. The Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with a perfect 5-0 line record in those games. Their most recent clash produced 64 total match points but that differs from their previous battles with 6 of their last 7 taking place in Queensland producing no more than 42 total match points.
Stats That Matter
Suncorp Stadium has been kind to the Titans as they have covered the line in each of their last 5 games at this ground. They will have to make a dramatic improvement defensively if they are to keep this one close as they have allowed 30+ points and an average of 38.5ppg during their current 4-game losing streak. Apart from last week, the Bulldogs defence has been incredible and despise that they have still held teams to 14.3ppg this season. The Bulldogs have scored the opening try in 6 of their 7 games played this season with a forward claiming the honour on four occasions. Nanai had a double for the Cowboys against the Titans last week and it could be Preston’s turn.
Prediction
After being bombarded by the Broncos at this venue a week ago, the Bulldogs priority will be to keep things tight in the opening 20 minutes – a formula which has worked for them this season. Their focus throughout this match will be defence and the absence of several key players including Burton will hinder their attack. Cannot see the Titans getting close to 20 points and will be backing the Unders with confidence. If the Bulldogs are going to be the real deal this season, we will see them respond accordingly.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Mahoney Anytime Try Scorer ($4.80)
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs Win, Titans Under 16.5 points, Preston Anytime Try Scorer ($5.29)
A big win over the Roosters a fortnight ago was supposed to kick-start the Panthers resurgence. It was not the case as they were outplayed by the Sea Eagles in a 26-10 loss. Garner will line up in the centres while Brian To’o is at least one more week away. The premiers must now find a way to bounce back against a Broncos side that just destroyed the Bulldogs 42-18.
Head To Head
History suggests that we should not write the Panthers off as they have won 8 of their last 9 against the Broncos and have held them to 13 or fewer points in all but one of those games. That includes wins in each of the last 4 meetings with the Under holding on in the last 6 between them at Suncorp Stadium. The betting favourite has won 18 of the last 24 clashes and despite being listed as the home team, this is effectively an away game for the Panthers. They have won only 2 of the last 10 as an away underdog in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
We are now two months into the season, and it has become clear that this Panthers side is a shadow of the team that won four consecutive premierships. They have won only 1 of their last 5 following a loss and it took them until Round 15 last season for them to concede more than 200 points. The Panthers have allowed 26ppg so far this season and must now find a way to contain a Broncos side that just put 40+ on the best defensive side in the competition. The one major concern for the Broncos is a 4-15 line record as the betting favourite in the last year.
Prediction
We saw what the Broncos were able to do in front of a huge crowd at Suncorp Stadium last week and it will be much of the same here. They have had success in the past when attacking the Panthers edges with speed and it is an area where the premiers have been severely exposed this season. Moreover, they are playing Garner in the centres who will be a target for the Broncos halves. Taking the Broncos to win and win by a big margin.
Tips
Best Bet: Broncos -4.5 ($1.90)
Value: Broncos 19+ ($4.25)
Same Game Multi: Broncos +6.5, Shibasaki Anytime Try Scorer, Arthurs Anytime Try Scorer ($5.22)
We wrap up Magic Round with a huge top 4 battle between the Storm and Raiders. The Storm extended their remarkable winning record following a loss with a 24-16 win over the Rabbitohs and received further good news earlier this week with Fa’alogo cleared to play. Meanwhile, the Raiders overcame a large deficit to get the better of the Dolphins and register a fourth consecutive win.
Head To Head
A 6-2 record in the last 8 meetings suggests that the Storm have been dominant in this series but that is not the case. The Raiders have won 8 of the last 18 meetings as an away underdog including 5 of the last 7 played at AAMI Park. In theory this is at a neutral venue which should benefit the Raiders. Of their last 12 meetings overall, only 2 have produced more than 46 total match points with the Raiders holding the Storm to 20 or less in 3 of the last 4. Furthermore, both teams have scored 20+ points in only 1 of the last 20 battles between them.
Stats That Matter
The Raiders have won and covered the line in their last 4 games leading into this one with an 11-4 line record as the betting underdog in the last year. They are dangerous when they get on a roll having won 9 of their last 13 following a win – covering the line in 77% of those games. Meanwhile, the Storm have successfully covered the line in only half of their games as a favourite in the last 12 months. The Over is 4-0 in the Storm’s last 4 matches at Suncorp Stadium and has also hit in 13 of their previous 19 when coming off a win. Both teams have been quick off the blocks this season with the Storm scoring the opening try in 6 of 7 games played and the Raiders doing so on 6 of 8 occasions. The trio of Tapine, Papenhuyzen and Nicholson have been the first try scorer twice this season.
Prediction
They may have come away with the points last week, but the Storm failed to put the Rabbitohs to the sword. Inconsistency has started to creep into their performances and the absence of Harry Grant is more significant than initially thought. The Raiders play an extremely tough brand of footy and have the better pack by a clear margin here. Expecting Ricky Stuart to direct his team to play largely through the middle before hitting the likes of Young and Nicholson on the edges who have been excellent. The kicking game of Fogarty will also force the Storm to come out of their own end which is not one of their strengths. Raiders with the start and to score an upset win.
Tips
Best Bet: Raiders +5.5 ($1.94)
Value: Raiders 1-12 ($3.60)
Same Game Multi: Under 47.5 points, Fa’alogo Anytime Try Scorer, Hudson Young Anytime Try Scorer ($15.80)