NRL Tips & Preview | Round 8

A record-breaking crown was on hand to watch the Bulldogs extend their unbeaten run in style – holding their opposition to nil for a second consecutive game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this season and will be without Reece Walsh for the foreseeable future after he sustained a knee injury. It will see Cobbo shifted to fullback and Mariner slot into the backline. Bulldogs youngster Jack Todd fractured his arm but there will be no disruptions to the starting thirteen

Head To Head:

The Bulldogs were 41-16 winners in their only clash last season, and it ended a five-game losing streak against the Broncos. The Broncos have won 10 of the last 13 meetings as the home side in this series but have rarely opened as the outsider in betting. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with an average of 57.7 total match points across those games. The losing team has scored 16 or fewer points in 7 of the last 8 meetings with a margin of 13+ points in all but one of those clashes.

Stats That Matter:

Another stellar defensive display for the Bulldogs has seen the Under hold on in each of their last 4 games with an average of 25.5 total match points in those games. The Under has not held on in 14 of the Bulldogs last 17 games following a win (82%) and it has helped them cover the line in 71% of those games. In comparison, the Broncos continue to be a terrible bet at the line. They have a 25% success rate at the line in the last year and have covered only 4 of their last 13 following a loss. The numbers are even worse at home where they have won only 3 of their last 11 and covered the line only once!

Prediction:

Momentum, morale, confidence and toughness are all with the Bulldogs. The absence of Reece Walsh removes one of the Broncos biggest weapons and based on what we have seen in recent weeks, the Bulldogs will have no issue containing the home side’s attack. The Bulldogs are holding teams to 9.7ppg this season and

the Broncos supposed incredible attack have scored more than 20 points just once in their last four games. At this point in time, we know what we are going to get from the Bulldogs – a collective effort from all 17 players with a high level of intensity and focus for all 80 minutes. The Broncos will not be scoring more than 2-3 tries.Tips

Best Bet: Under 42.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs WIN, 31-40 Total Match Points, Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer ($9.96)

The traditional ANZAC Day clash between these two teams is the hottest ticket in town and there is no shortage of narratives heading into this edition. Hopes were high for the Roosters heading after beating the Broncos in Round 6, but they were blown off the park by the Panthers last week in what was a reminder to everyone that the premiers are not done just yet. Meanwhile, the Dragons posted an upset win over the Sea Eagles on the northern beaches with their only defeat in the last month coming in golden point. In a significant boost, the duo of Angus Crichton and Billy Smith are slated to return for the Roosters. 

 Head To Head: 

The corresponding fixture last season was a day to forget for the Dragons as the Roosters ran riot in a 60-18 demolition. Sam Walker put on a clinic with a handful of try assists to go with a 4-pointer and a perfect 10 from 10 with the boot. He will not be on the field for this one nor will three of the other tryscorers from that game – Manu, Sua’ali’i and Keary. Of the last 10 ANZAY Day meetings, 7 of them have produced no more than 44 total match points. The Roosters have won 11 of their last 12 as a home favourite against the Dragons with the Over hitting in each of the last 4. James Tedesco has scored at least once in each of his last five appearances against the Dragons.  

Stats That Matter: 

Victory last week for the Dragons was only the second time in the last year that they posted back-to-back wins. Dating further back, they have won only 3 of their last 18 following a win while the Roosters have won 70% of games after a loss in the last 12 months. The Roosters have a 71% win rate as the betting favourite in the last year, but the Dragons have shown that they can cause an upset with wins in 4 of their last 8 as an away underdog. The Roosters are likely to make a fast start as they have scored the opening try in 10 of their last 11 games at Allianz Stadium.  

Prediction: 

The Dragons have a list of young players (Toby Couchman, Dylan Egan and Tyrell Sloan) that are providing the team with incredible energy. Blend in the direction and experience of their offseason additions (Gutherson, Cook and Holmes) and you have a dangerous side. Two of the Dragons losses this season have come by a single point which highlights their level of consistency. The Roosters have conceded 30+ points on three separate occasions this season and that is yet to happen to the Red V in 2025. The tiny start could prove to be very valuable. 

Best Bet: Dragons +2.5 ($1.90) 

Value: Tyrell Sloan 2+ Tries ($4.25)

Same Game Multi: Dragons +6.5, Under 53.5 points, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer ($7.10)

A run of 4 wins in their last 5 has seen the Warriors climb into the top 4. Their latest victory came in golden point over the Broncos and this week they will have the benefit of a bumper crowd behind them in Christchurch. In comparison, the Knights have had nothing to cheer about after suffering a 4th consecutive loss. Tyson Frizell suffered a broken nose in the loss to the Sharks, but the Knights do welcome back Dylan Lucas. The Warriors receive a boost of their own with Nicol-Klokstad back in the no.1 jersey and Berry also making his return.  

Head To Head: 

The Knights hold a 5-3 edge in the last 8 meetings with the home team claiming victory in each of their five clashes over the last two seasons. What that does not reveal is the Knights struggles on New Zealand soil as they have lost 9 of their last 10 when making the trip across The Tasman. The Warriors have won 11 of the last 14 as a home favourite in this series and have held the Knights to an average of 14ppg in the last 6 as the home team despite losing two of those games outright.  

Stats That Matter: 

With an average of only 10ppg this season, it is impossible not to discuss the Knights ineffective attack. One of their three tries last week was a consolation on the stroke of full time and the others relied heavily on pieces of individual brilliance. A total of 16 points in the final 9 minutes sent the total Over but the Under is 3-0 in the Knights 3 away games played this season. The Knights have won only 2 of their last 10 as a road underdog and have lost their last 4 leading into this one by a margin of 13+. The Warriors love playing under lights and have posted a 5-0 line record in their last 5 night matches.  

Prediction: 

Thought the Knights were a chance of breaking free of their attacking woes at home last week but have now scored 20+ points in only 1 of their last 8 games dating back to last season. Fletcher Sharpe has been great running the ball, but solo efforts are not going to solve the problem. They have been poor in their recent travels to New Zealand and the Warriors will be right up for this one after falling victim to the Titans on ANZAC Day last year. It is only a matter of time before Adam O’Brien’s tenure is placed under the microscope.  

Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)

Same Game Multi: Warriors WIN, Tuaupiki Anytime Tryscorer, Knights Under 16.5 points ($3.25)

At 16-2 after 21 minutes the Storm were on track for another big win. The Dolphins had other ideas and scored 40 unanswered points in a dramatic turnaround. It was an even tougher day at the office for the Rabbitohs as they barely touched the ball in a 32-0 loss. Since 2009 the Storm have almost exclusively hosted the Warriors on ANZAC Day but in a shake-up to the schedule, the Rabbioths are making the trip to AAMI Park. Bronson Garlick will continue to cover the injured Harry Grant with Kane Bradley retaining the wing spot in Warbrick’s absence. Wayne Bennett has selection dilemmas of his out with Hubner the latest casualty and has opted to shift Latrell back to fullback with Gray to come off the bench. 

Head To Head: 

Two years ago, the Storm went down as the ‘home team’ against the Rabbitohs in Magic Round. Let’s not confuse that with winning in Melbourne as it is something that the Bunnies have never done. The Storm are a perfect 19-0 in this series in matches played in Melbourne and have claimed victory in 18 of the last 20 meetings overall when installed as the favourite. The Rabbitohs have gone close to winning at AAMI Park with 3 of their last 7 defeats at the ground coming by a single point. Warbrick crossed for three tries in the two meetings between these sides last season so look for his replacement (Bradley) to feature.  

Stats That Matter: 

We have said it before, and we’ll say it again… There is no better time to back the Storm than following a loss. In their most recent game following a loss they destroyed the Sea Eagles 48-22. They improved to 16-0 in their last 16 games after a loss and have consistently leaned on attack in this scenario. The Over has hit in 6 of their last 7 on the back of a defeat with 60+ total match points in all but one of those games. The Storm have averaged more than 42ppg in those matches. The Rabbitohs are a poor 2-7 both straight up and at the line in their last 9 as an away underdog which suggests they are up against it here. The Under is 7-0 in Rabbitohs games this season and 7-0 in their last 7 away games dating back to last season.  

Prediction: 

The Rabbitohs were never in the contest against the Bulldogs but deserve some credit as it could have been 60 or 70 based on the amount of ball and field position they were up against. My concerns for the visitor here are many. Backing up from a brutal game like that will not be easy and they must do it against a Storm side that are relentless following a loss. Don’t know how much the Bunnies will contribute to the total so will be taking the Storm at the line and to post a big team total.  

Best Bet: Storm -14.5 ($1.90)

Value: Storm 41 points or more ($3.75)

Same Game Multi: Bradley Anytime Try Scorer, Papenhuyzen Anytime Try Scorer, Katoa Anytime Try Scorer ($6.89)

A 16-0 lead midway through the first half was not big enough for the Titans as they were outscored 30-4 thereafter by the Raiders. They have now lost their last three, but Des Hasler does get some of his troops back including David Fifita and Khan-Pereira. The Cowboys have had an excellent month with wins in their last three leading into last week’s bye. With John Bateman returning, the Cowboys have close to their full complement of players to choose from.

Head To Head:

They have split the last 10 meetings, but the away team has been victorious in only two of those matches. The Cowboys have won the last three battles at Qld Country Bank Stadium by 12 or more points with an average winning margin of 17 points across those games. Dating further back the Cowboys have covered the line in 10 of the last 11 as a home favourite. Jeremiah Nanai has 3 tries in his last 3 against the Titans while AJ Brimson has two tries over the same period for the visitors. The Cowboys have scored 24+ points in 5 of their last 6 when facing the Titans at this ground.

Stats That Matter:

A strong run has seen the Cowboys improve to 10-4 when coming off a win in the last year and they have been successful at the line in 64% of those games. The Titans have allowed 27.3ppg from the start of last season and it has seen the totals for their matches set in the high 40’s and low 50s. The numbers suggest that this has been an overreaction as the Under has held on in 8 of their last 11 away games (73%). Both teams have scored 20+ in only 1 of their Cowboys last 9 games and a repeat of that would make it difficult for the teams to combine for 50+ total points.

Prediction:

The Cowboys may have won their last three but an average winning margin of 7.3 point tells us that they haven’t been completely dominant. The concern for the Titans is that they aren’t willing to roll their sleeves up and get into the grind. The Cowboys have opened the scoring only once this season so that does create a window of opportunity. The person to capitalise is Khan-Pereira. He has 15 in his last 12 games and scored a double in his only prior appearance this season. The reigning top try scorer is great value to score the opening try but they will likely get run down for the second time in as many games.

Turns out that the Panthers still have some fight left in them. A return to Panthers football last week helped them to a 40-12 win – ending what was a five game losing streak. They do lose Garner and Kenny which will see their depth tested. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles have lost their last three and have been held to fewer than 20 points in all those games. Their attack is about to get the biggest boost possible with Tom Trbojevic returning to the side which pushes Lehi Hopoate back to the wing and relegates Talau to the extended bench.  

Head To Head: 

A 9-1 record in the last 10 meetings highlights the Panthers dominance in this series with the Sea Eagles only win in that stretch coming in their first of two meetings last season. It was a complete team performance from the Sea Eagles, but it is worth noting that Nathan Cleary did not play. The Panthers are seeking a 6th consecutive win as the home team against Manly and have covered 6 of the last 8 as a home favourite. The Panthers have had at least one player score 2+ tries in each of the last 4 meetings  

Stats That Matter: 

The Sea Eagles have conceded a double to the opposing winger in each of their last three – namely Sloan (Dragons), Stonestreet (Sharks) and Anderson (Storm). The Panthers have won 72% of games following a win in the last year but have covered the line in only 33% of those games. Despite losing their last three, the Sea Eagles have been victorious in 8 of their last 12 on the back of a loss with a 75% success rate at the line. The Over has hit in 7 of the Sea Eagles last 8 away games and their last two battles against the Panthers.   

Prediction: 

Even with Tom Trbojevic back on deck, I don’t want any piece of the Sea Eagles in this one. They have conceded 22+ points in each of their last 6 away games and an average of 29.7ppg in those matches. The Eagles have failed to contain opposing right wingers in recent weeks so we will be taking Alamoti to continue his scoring streak. Another player to keep an eye on is youngster Blaize Talagi. He has 27 runs over the last two weeks and was rewarded with his first try of the season in the win over the Panthers. Like his chances against a Sea Eagles side that also leaks tries through the middle third.  

Best Bet: Panthers -5.5 ($1.85)

Value: Paul Alamoti 2+ Tries ($3.70)

Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Alamoti Anytime Try Scorer, Talagi Anytime Try Scorer ($6.45)

These are two of the in-form teams of the competition and both have won each of their last three games. They did it in similar fashion last week by overcoming large early deficits to win. The Raiders came from 16-0 down to beat the Titans but that does not compare with the Dolphins 42-22 victory against the Storm after trailing 16-2 midway through the first half. Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 with the Dolphins getting their own piece of good news with Max Plath cleared to play.  

Head To Head: 

There has been nothing between these two. Their three prior meetings have been decided by a combined total of 8 points with their last two going to golden point. The Raiders came up clutch in both of those encounters which includes victory in the only prior meeting as the home team. That was played in Wagga which makes this the first clash at GIO Stadium. Tabuai-Fidow is the leading try scorer in this series with 3 tries in previous 3 meetings. 

Stats That Matter: 

The Raiders are 4-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 home games. They have also been successful in this spot having covered the line in 9 of their last 12 following a win. The Dolphins are also in a purple patch having covered the line in their last four games but have claimed the points on offer in only 3 of their last 9 as an away underdog. They have lost their last 7 games played outside of Queensland with the Under holding on in their last 4 away games.  

Prediction: 

Full credit to the Dolphins for their win over the Storm last week but the Raiders have been filling our pockets all season long. The Dolphins have struggled playing interstate and I am convinced that the Raiders pack/bench will allow them to dominate through the middle. The Dolphins have rarely been involved in close matches this season with 5 of their last 6 decided by a double-digit margin. Can see the Raiders winning by a clear margin as the Dolphins have reached 20 points in only 1 off their previous 6 away games.  

Best Bet: Raiders -4.5 ($1.94)

Value: Raiders 13+/Under 46.5 points ($6.25)

Same Game Multi: Raiders +6.5, Savage Anytime Try Scorer, Bostock Anytime Try Scorer ($4.85)

The Lachlan Galvin circus continues with the Tigers naming the teenager to start this week. They could have used him in the loss to the Eels last week as Adam Doueihi looked lost in the halves. The Sharks were comfortable 34-14 winners over the Knights in a game where they clocked off in the second half and cruised to victory. Tuku Hau Tapuha replaced Rudolph (ankle) in the only change for the visitors with Laulilii losing his spot to accommodate for the return of Galvin.  

Head To Head: 

The Sharks have won 11 of the last 13 meetings including 5 of the last 6. Their last five wins over the Tigers have been by a margin of 24+ points which emphasises their dominance in this matchup. Sinoe Katoa has scored 2+ tries in 4 of his last 6 against the Tigers which is music to the ears of Sam Stonestreet who is having a field day on the right wing in Katoa’s absence. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 6 battles at Leichhardt Oval but overall are 1-7 both straight up and at the line in the last 8 clashes as a home underdog.  

Stats That Matter: 

A streak of 5 consecutive Unders games ended for the Sharks last week but that came on the back of 3 tries in the final 10 minutes. Only 3 of the last 9 meetings hosted by the Tigers have gone over the set total and their recent home struggles cannot be ignored. They have lost and failed to cover the line in their last 4 home games and have won only 26% of games as the underdog in the last year. The Sharks have scored the opening try in 5 of 7 games played this season and have gone on to win every game when leading at half time this season.   

Prediction: 

When it comes to priorities, the Sharks number one focus is defence. They elected to get tackled inside the opposing 10m line on the last tackle several times in the second half rather than put in an attacking kick – a clear tactic to slow momentum and force their opponent to go 100m in a set. Perhaps the most concerning part of the Tigers loss last week was how they failed to stem the flow of points once the Eels gained ascendancy and momentum. There are concerns of a repeat here – especially against a Sharks side that have put together some excellent first half performances. Playing from in front, the Sharks will kill the game in the second half by completing their sets and forcing the Tigers to come out of their own end.  

Best Bet: Under 46.5 points ($1.90)

Value: Sam Stonestreet 2+ Tries ($3.20)

Same Game Multi: Sharks WIN, Stonestreet Anytime Try Scorer, 2nd Half – Under 23.5 points ($4.51)