Spain’s Davidovich-Fokina is coming off consecutive five set matches which makes this a mountain to climb for him. Thought his compatriot Carballes Baena would trouble Tommy Paul but was well off the mark with that assessment. The American was clinical and has been incredible returning serve. He has broken serve 24 times in three matches and has had great success doing to same against Davidovich-Fokina in the past. Paul leads the H2H 3-0 and has broken the Spaniard’s serve 17 times in the 11 sets they have contested. With only two of those 17 sets producing more than 10 total games, I fancy Tommy Paul to win in convincing fashion.
Alcaraz may have dropped a set to Borges but he didn’t drop serve in that match and continues to dominate when he is handed the balls to serve. Draper has broken Australian hearts following back-to-back five set wins over Kokkinakis and Vukic but will need to improve significantly on those performances o be competitive here. He may have a win over Alcaraz in the past (Queen’s Club last year) but will not be able to generate as many free points on this surface. Alcaraz matches up very well against left-handed players and this is the time at the major where he comes into his best. There can’t be much steam left in the Draper tank and can see him capitulating in multiple sets to potentially conserve energy. Alcaraz to cover the games handicap.
It has not been long since these two last met. Zverev was a comfortable 6-2 6-2 winner over Umbert in the final of the Paris Masters but it is worth noting that the Frenchman simply ran out of steam. He beat the likes of Alcaraz and Khachanov to make the final and prior to that has given Zverev some trouble. Their first two meetings were both tight three set contests and they ended with a win a piece. More specifically, 3 of the first 6 sets they contested were decided by tiebreakers and Umbert is posing a bigger threat than Zverev’s previous opponents. The market agrees and I can see multiple breakers in a match that will go at least four sets.
After some struggles in his early matches we finally saw the best of Novak as he swept his way past Machac 6-1 6-4 6-4. He now faces the winner of the Brisbane International with Lehecka riding an 9-game win streak into this contest. Despite winning that tournament, it is difficult to get a gauge on Lehecka’s form. Dimitrov and Opelka both retired (semi finals and finals) and he is yet to face anyone noteworthy here. Li Tu, Bonzi and Bonzi is a dream run to the 4th Round of a Grand Slam and he will need to go up a few gears at a minimum. Does he have that in him… I don’t think so. Djokovic got the better of him at the United Cup a few weeks ago and broke him 6 times in total. Don’t think Lehecka will have an easy time on serve and that will make it difficult for him to win multiple sets.