Te Rapa hosts an eight-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Good4 and the rail out 4m. Significant rainfall is forecast for the Waikato over the next 48 hours, which could see the track deteriorate sharply late in the day if the worst of it arrives.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Te Rapa meeting on Saturday 7 November below:
Pick Up Artist (#3) is a 2yo Trapeze Artist gelding on debut for Te Akau. He showed good tactical speed in his sole trial, where he led and kept up a nice gallop to the line when asked for an effort. Hopefully he can bring those barrier manners to raceday and take up a forward position in this small field of juveniles. It’s hard to be overly confident in a race of 2yos on debut, but I’m happy to trust a stable who know how to get them up and running as 2yos.
| 3. Pick Up Artist (3) 57kg | |||
| Gelding by Trapeze Artist from Pickup The Pieces on debut. Fitter for a recent trial placing and stable have a impressive strike rate with the first starters. Profiles well and a bold run is expected. | |||
Victor Tango (#2) is a locally trained gelding who closed off well out very wide from a long way back at Ellerslie a fortnight ago, sustaining a long sprint before peaking late into 4th. He maps to settle midfield off an even tempo from a favourable low draw, where I expect Warren Kennedy will just look to get him into a rhythm and ensure he is given every chance to run out the trip. I expect he may just be a touch sharp for these late and he can bounce back to winning form on his home track.
| 2. Victor Tango (4) 59kgx4544 | |||
| Stepping up in trip after finishing fourth over 1600m at Ellerslie last time out. Finds a nice race this time and is expected to go very well. | |||
Hello Angel (#9) got back and worked home well to the line without threatening when 7th at Ellerslie a fortnight ago, beaten just over 2L that day. She maps to settle closer to the speed this time around from the middle draw with Kelly Myers now jumping aboard. This maiden looks a more winnable assignment and she looks as likely as any in this.
| 9. Hello Angel (6) 55.5kg557 | |||
| Came from a wide gate and could only manage to finish seventh last time out over 1400m at Ellerslie. Sure to be prominent. | |||
Echannay (#6) comes here second-up after sitting just off the speed and fighting on gamely for 3rd at Ellerslie a fortnight ago. She is bound to strip fitter for that resuming run, and the possibility of rain and an easing of track conditions likely won’t concern her either. She looks a leading contender with natural improvement from the first-up run in what shapes as a very even field on paper.
| 6. Echannay (4) 57.5kg1×3 | |||
| Encouraging first-up run when third at Ellerslie over 1200m on October 24. Fitter for that run and will be tough to beat. | |||
Twain (#4) comes here off a 2nd at Tauranga last week, where he sat handy and fought on well in the straight in Open Handicap company over 1300m. He maps to settle handy again here from the low draw under Elen Nicholas, in a race that looks to have a genuine speed on paper. He will appreciate any easing of track conditions more than most, and if the worst of the rain arrives it would bring him right into contention. It’s more of a weather watch for him, but he could run a vastly improved race at odds.
| 4. Twain (2) 57kgx7782 | |||
| Six-year-old gelding with multiple wins at this journey. Good effort but found one better last time out, beaten 4.5 lengths, over 1300m at Tauranga. Capable of taking this out. | |||
Rocking (#10) got back and stretched out nicely late for 4th at Tauranga three weeks ago, beaten a length in what was her first run in nearly six weeks. She maps to settle midfield in this big field, where she may require a smart steer early from Samantha Collett from the very wide draw. She’s another who will be praying for rain, and if it arrives she will be right in contention at odds.
| 10. Rocking (16) 56.5kg13594 | |||
| Handy mare who is racing well, including a solid fourth last start over 1400m at Tauranga. Right in the mix again. | |||
Ploy (#6) heads here third-up off a last start 8th in the Gr.3 Taranaki Breeders’ at Hawera five weeks ago, where she got back and made no impression out wide. Getting out over a mile for the first time is a slight query, but she should be nearing peak fitness with those two runs under her belt this time in. She maps to settle handy to the speed this time around under Kate Hercock, where she may be able to tag the likely leader Prometheus throughout. Any rain likely wouldn’t bother her either, and she looks a solid each way chance at odds in an even field.
| 6. Ploy (11) 57.5kg80×18 | |||
| Second run back finished eighth over 1400m at Hawera when dropping back in journey. Out further in journey but needs to find best. | |||

