Riccarton hosts an 11-race card on Saturday for Day 1 of the New Zealand Cup Carnival. The track is rated a Soft7 at publish, and the rail is in the true position. Plenty of irrigation has been applied leading up to Saturday, with drying conditions likely to see this track improve to the Good range by the mid stages of the card.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 11 races at the Riccarton meeting on Saturday 7 November below:
Rollins (#2) settled back of midfield and was only one-paced to the line late when 9th here six weeks ago, in what was a bunched finish. He comes here fresh, so the drop back to 1600m doesn’t look a major concern for him. He maps to settle midfield on the fence from the inside gate, and George Rooke jumping aboard looks a big plus. Looks a leading contender in an even field.
| 2. Rollins (1) 59kg04329 | |||
| Dual acceptor. Has been knocking on the door including a last start ninth over 2000m at this track when only 2.75 lengths from the winner. Rates highly and will be hard to stop. | |||
Perlino (#4) was just fair to the line from back of midfield when finishing well down the track at Ellerslie three weeks ago, despite looking to have every opportunity. She took a couple of runs to hit her straps last campaign, so I’m happy to give her another chance here, particularly given she is trekking back south. She maps to settle handy to the speed, sitting outside her stablemate and likely leader Cognoscenti in a moderately run affair. She should get her chance to run an improved race here.
| 4. Perlino (4) 57kg31×20 | |||
| Finished second first-up at Cambridge Synthetic then couldn’t repeat the dose last time when 11th at Ellerslie over 1600m when beaten 6 lengths. Best form stacks up nicely and deserves another chance. | |||
Ifyoustartmeup (#1) made good late ground from the back to finish 4th at Timaru just over a month ago, rattling off some good late splits in the process. He should be better for that resuming run coming here second-up and looks suited getting back to the big roomy Riccarton track. He maps to settle back in the field from the middle draw, as per his typical racing pattern. He should be rattling home again late and looks an exceptional 1×3 each way play in an even field.
| 1. Ifyoustartmeup (9) 58.5kg423×4 | |||
| Returned from a spell last start with a sound fourth over 1200m at Phar Lap Racecourse. Strips fitter and is sure to prove hard to beat. | |||
Toronto (#2) resumes here for Kevin & Stephen Gray, last seen winning at this track back in May, where he trailed the leaders and proved too strong late that day. He has trialled boldly ahead of this first-up run, pointing towards a forward showing here in a fresh state. He maps to follow Roaring Bebe forward early from the draw, which should cart him into a handy position. He should take some beating if he returns as well as he left off last prep.
| 2. Toronto (11) 59kg4x21x | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Recent trial form very strong including a win at the latest appearance at Foxton. Opened last campaign with a second at this track over 1000m. Anticipating him to hit the ground running this campaign. | |||
Marokopa Falls (#5) got home strongly from the back to finish 3rd at Timaru a month ago, beaten under 2L. She maps to settle midfield with cover this time from a middle draw, off what should be a strong tempo. Michael McNab jumping aboard looks a positive, and I expect he will give her every chance in this. She looks the one to beat in an even field.
| 5. Marokopa Falls (7) 58kg8×423 | |||
| Has been about the mark of late including a last start third over 1200m at Phar Lap Racecourse. Has ability and can run a forward race. | |||
Charmrose (#3) comes here third-up, last seen leading and kicking on strongly to win narrowly at Ashburton four weeks ago, on a day that did favour those up and in. The drop back to 1000m looks no knock, and she maps to lead again from the inside gate in a strongly run race. She looks well placed on the minimum carrying 53kg with Michael McNab aboard. Expect she can give a big sight.
| 3. Charmrose (1) 53kg11×41 | |||
| Was successful at her latest appearance over 1200m at Ashburton, scoring by half a length. Tough to beat on latest and can measure up again. | |||
Bona Sforza (#9) heads here off a last start 4th at Te Rapa less than two weeks ago, where she closed off strongly from the back and posted all the fastest closing splits of the race in the process. She looks suited getting out over 1400m second-up and maps to settle back in the field again here from the wide draw, where she will be looking to blend into the race late and finish over the top of them. She isn’t well weighted under the F&M SW&P conditions but looks a strong chance regardless.
| 9. Bona Sforza (10) 55kg109×4 | |||
| Prolific black-type performer who opened this campaign with a moderate fourth to To Cap It All last start over 1200m at Te Rapa. Hard to beat on her best form. Give another chance. | |||
Just Charlie (#9) sat up on speed throughout in a genuinely run race at Ellerslie three weeks ago, fighting on well late for 2nd but unable to match the winner. He should be hitting peak fitness now and looks to be trending in the right direction for this. He maps to settle handy to the speed, where Lily Sutherland will likely have the option to lead or take a sit off Lombardi early. A genuine grinding stayer who relishes a strong tempo, he should run another competitive race here if ridden accordingly.
| 9. Just Charlie (8) 53kgx0062 | |||
| Turned in a solid effort last start when second in a race won by Solidify over 2100m at Ellerslie three weeks ago. Hard to fault if at his best. | |||
Graffiti Artist (#12) made up good late ground from the back for 2nd here a fortnight ago, having to duck and weave in the straight and only obtaining clear galloping room late. She maps to settle back in the field again from the wide draw, off what looks to be a strong tempo being set out in front. She will likely be ridden similarly here so may need a few favours in the straight to go through her gears, but looks a solid each way chance in an even field.
| 12. Graffiti Artist (15) 57kgx5732 | |||
| Yet to break through this campaign but hasn’t been far away including a last start second over 1600m at this track. One of the major hopes. | |||
Asturia (#1) is a smart Almanzor filly who heads here at just her fourth career start for Te Akau. Last start, she settled back and unleashed a good sprint late to win the Gr.2 Soliloquy at Ellerslie three weeks ago. She draws a nice low gate and maps to settle midfield with cover under Michael McNab. She looks the one to beat if she cops the firm track come this stage of the day. She has created quite the impression since debuting just two months ago, can add a Gr.1 win to her C.V.
| 1. Asturia (3) 56.5kg121 | |||
| Impressive winner last start of the Soliloquy Stakes over 1400m at Ellerslie, getting home by 1.1 lengths. Hard to fault and can go on with it. | |||
Airpark Hustler (#1) closed off nicely from the back of the field to go down by just half a length for 3rd here a fortnight ago, really surging hard over the last 50m once balanced up. He looks well suited stepping out over 1400m third-up with those two runs under his belt. He maps to settle back of midfield with cover off what should be a genuine tempo. A leading contender in another competitive race to close the card.
| 1. Airpark Hustler (8) 59kg61×83 | |||
| Strips fitter after two runs this campaign. Finished third last start over 1200m at this track, an improvement in the first-up performance. Sure to give a great sight. Looks ready to win. | |||

