The Northern Hemisphere leg of the Nations Championship kicks off this weekend, and both teams will be looking to build on solid starts from July’s matches. That said, the task gets significantly harder for both outfits, with New Zealand heading away from home and Scotland gearing up for contests against the All Blacks and Wallabies in the next two weeks.
It was not a good start to the year for Scotland, as they stumbled to a 1-5 record in the Six Nations, with their one win narrowly coming against a struggling Wales outfit. Things looked better in July, as Scotland went 2-1 on their road trip to start the Nations Championship. That started with a 47-38 victory in Argentina — a significant upset considering the Scots entered as 7.5-point underdogs — and it was even more convincing of a win than the scoreline lets on, with the visitors leading 47-24 with less than five minutes to play. From there came a very tough test against South Africa, in which Scotland more than held their own, being within seven points of the world champions in the final 10 minutes, before a late Springboks try made it 28-42. Scotland then ended their July tests with a 33-17 victory against Fiji, as they overcame a scare of a 7-17 halftime score to shut out the Flying Fijians in the second 40 while scoring four tries of their own. Sione Tuipulotu was a standout in July, Kyle Rowe and Finn Russell had plenty of good moments and Scott Cummings and Jack Dempsey stood out up front.
New Zealand have had an up-and-down 2026 under Dave Rennie, sweeping their Nations Championships matchups against France, Italy and Ireland at home, before embarking on a long road trip to South Africa and Baltimore as part of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. Consisting of eight games, including four Tests against the Springboks, the All Blacks unsurprisingly went unbeaten against the club teams but lost RGR 1-3 as it became clear that NZ were not up to par with the world’s best team. A massive 21-3 second half earned the All Blacks a 33-16 win in the first Test, but not a lot went right in the final three Tests, losing all three and despite some slim final margins, it’s fair to say that the Springboks had New Zealand’s number for the significant majority of the series. They then moved onto the Bledisloe Cup, which saw a couple of far more convincing showings, with two big wins over Australia, firstly 50-19 in Auckland before a 43-21 victory in Sydney. With Ardie Savea out for that series (and still out for the end of year tour), both Wallace Sititi and Peter Lakai stood out in the back row while Damian McKenzie and Cam Roigard thrived as a new-look halves pairing.
Scotland will need to produce a performance for the ages if they are to win on Sunday morning. They have never beaten New Zealand, with 31 defeats and two draws to their name, but the last four games have all been close. Last year saw a 25-17 NZ victory, following 31-23 (2022), 22-17 (2017) and 24-16 (2014) score lines.
It’s a similar Scottish 23 to the one that gave the Boks a scare in July, but Huw Jones comes in at centre and Rory Sutherland starts at loosehead. Blair Kinghorn also joins the bench to add plenty of experience, while for New Zealand, there are two changes to the XV that beat the Wallabies in Sydney, with Jordie Barrett and Ethan de Groot both returning from injury to slot back into the starting team at the expense of Timocii Tavatavanawai and George Bower who move to the bench. Asafo Aumua comes in at reserve hooker for Samisoni Taukei’aho and Christian Lio-Willie and Anton Segner replace Shannon Frizell and Du’Plessis Kirifi on the bench.
It’s a strong All Blacks 23 that Dave Rennie has named for the first Northern Hemisphere Test. The Scots, however, have also named a good outfit, with their back line in particular looking capable of holding their own, with their 10-12-13 trio a rock-solid one. The concern for Scotland is that their defence did not look good against Argentina or South Africa, which is going to bring on some issues against a NZ team that looks to spread the ball. New Zealand’s defence has hardly been strong under Rennie either, setting us up for a big total at Murrayfield.
Tips
Best
Over 57.5 ($1.90)Value
New Zealand 11-20 ($3.60)Try Scorer
Codie Taylor ($11 First, $1.90 Anytime)Same Game Multi
Codie Taylor Try / Huw Jones Try / Peter Lakai Try ($19.19)
