We are nearing the halfway mark of the season and a critical juncture for many teams sitting out of the division lead.
There will be nothing fun about betting Baltimore this week but as such a large home underdog they are an auto-bet. The Ravens have lost their top two quarterbacks for the season and are trying to acquire Jacoby Brissett but on a short turnaround will likely start Joe Fagnano, who did little to inspire last week when thrown to the wolves. This is too good a spot to pass up on though. Home underdogs of at least 10 in prime time are 20-7 against the spread in prime time while home underdogs of seven or more are 40-11-1 against the number. With favourites 9-16 against the spread in night games, the Ravens can be played with confidence. The Ravens are going to need to run the ball and that should see Derrick Henry get plenty of opportunities. He has run for over 100 yards in 10 of his last 15 games from November onwards. Henry has nine touchdowns in eight games this season. Brenton Strange has five or more catches in three of his last four.
Tips
Best: Baltimore +10 ($1.90)
Next: Baltimore Win ($4.80)
Touchdown: Derrick Henry ($6.60 First, $2.25 Anytime)
SGM: Derrick Henry TD/Brenton Strange 5+ Receptions ($4.84)
The NFL plays its first game in Spain with the city of Madrid playing host to the Falcons and Bengals. Both teams were woefully disappointing last week but Joe Burrow did enough to pull the Bengals from the fire while the Falcons couldn’t post a point, becoming the first team to lose without their opponent completing a pass since 1974. The NFC South cover at just 41.1% when playing outside their division while the Bengals have covered six straight against the division. Kevin Stefanski has been overrated by the market, going 15-27 against the spread the last three years. Mike Gesicki has scored in six of his seven games this season including his last five making his price to post a touchdown utterly obscene. Tee Higgins has topped 90 yards in five of his last six, hitting 148 or more in three of his last four.
Tips
Best: Cincinnati -3 ($1.87)
Next: Cincinnati 14+ ($4.40)
Touchdown: Mike Gesicki ($17 First, $3.25 Anytime)
SGM: Mike Gesicki TD/Tee Higgins 100+ Receiving Yards ($10.74)
Cleveland tick off one of the best betting angles in football this week with the Saints a huge-play against team. Home favourites with a points differential of seven or less 48-76-3 against the spread. Teams off a loss of more than one possession like the Browns against a team not on normal rest cover at 62%. Teams favoured with a win record 25% worse than their opponent are 26-50-2 against the spread. The Browns are a chips-in proposition this week. DeShaun Watson has not thrown a touchdown since Week 5 so attention turns to Quinshon Judkins, who has three touchdowns in his last four games. KC Concepcion has been a major contributor with four or more catches in five of eight outings in his rookie season.
Tips
Best: Cleveland +3 ($1.92)
Next: Cleveland Win ($2.35)
Touchdown: Quinshon Judkins ($7 First, $2.05 Anytime)
SGM:Quinshon Judkins TD/KC Concepcion 5+ Receptions ($4.84)
One of the highlights of Week 9 is the late slate clash between the Patriots and the Packers. While Green Bay traditionally show up as an underdog, this is a spot to be with the Patriots. Drake Maye has covered 12 of 17 when favoured by at least a field goal while referee Alex Kemp is the biggest favourite official in the NFL, the popular elect going 31-10 against the spread under his whistle. Eli Raridon has two touchdowns this season and leads all Pats receivers in redzone targets this season.Christian Watson has topped 95 yards in four of eight games this year including last week when he returned after a hospital trip.
Tips
Best: New England -3.5 ($1.94)
Next: Green Bay/New England HT/FT ($7.00)
Touchdown: Eli Raridon ($12.50 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Eli Raridon TD/Christian Watson 100+ Receiving Yards ($9.73)
Chicago are the top play for Week 9 when they host an erratic Tampa Bay at home on Sunday Night Football. In the battle of coaching, this is a complete mismatch. Ben Johnson has covered eight of nine prime time games while Todd Bowles is 10-18-1 against the number in night matches. Johnson has covered 16 of 18 non-division games and 10 of 14 at home. With the NFC South covering at just 41% when playing outside their division, the Bears can be bet with confidence. Luther Burden has 19 catches the last three weeks with two touchdowns. He leads all Bears receivers in redzone looks. D’Andre Swift has seven touchdowns across the last four weeks.
Tips
Best: Chicago -6.5 ($1.94)
Next: Chicago 14+ ($3.20)
Touchdown: Luther Burden ($10.50 First, $2.55 Anytime)
SGM: Luther Burden TD/D’Andre Swift TD ($4.06)
Monday Night Football games don’t get much better than this with the Vikings hosting the Bills in a battle between two one-loss teams. Minnesota got found out last week against the Lions and look to be in strife against the Bills. Minnesota have failed to cover their last seven after playing Detroit while teams who allow 15ppg or less are 42-76 against the spread. With Josh Allen 12-4-1 against the spread against teams allowing 20ppg or less, the Bills can be bet with confidence. Keon Coleman has been fantastic with three touchdowns across his last four games. Josh Allen is the MVP favourite with at least one rushing touchdown in all bar one game this season.
Tips
Best: Buffalo -3.5 ($1.95)
Next: Minnesota Under 14.5 Points ($3.60)
Touchdown: Keon Coleman ($23 First, $5 Anytime)
SGM: Keon Coleman TD/Josh Allen TD ($8.88)
