We’re back out to Rosehill Gardens this Saturday, November 7th and the lucrative Five Diamonds headlines ten races.
The rail will be left in the True position around the entire course but after some inclement weather in Sydney’s west this week, we’re faced with a track rated in the Soft (7) range at publish.
Check out this week’s Rosehill tip sheet below.
Having debuted with a fine performance to win easily at Scone back in September, Mainstay has since added Class 1 and 2 races to his CV. This is undoubtedly the hardest task he’s been set, but he has plenty of upside and should get his chance again.
| 3. Mainstay (7) 59kg111 | |||
| Yet to taste defeat in three starts. When well in the market, favourite; ran on from midfield and won by 2.5 len in a Cl1 at Muswellbrook on October 5 over 1000m defeating Real Mccoy carrying 59kg at $1.18. Last start favourite; settled well back; won by a long-neck in a Cl2 at Scone on October 23 over 1000m in soft going defeating Won’thearmecoming carrying 61kg at $1.50. Undefeated in three starts and should relish the extra trip. | |||
I Am Carrot turned in some fine performances throughout his autumn and winter prep, ending the season a credible sixth behind Skyhook in the Gunsynd Classic at Eagle Farm. He clearly needed his first run back this time to tuneup, but he’s a horse that tends to enjoy strong second up improvement, and he looks well placed in these Midway races.
| 3. I Am Carrot (16) 59.5kg196×9 | |||
| Dual acceptor. Second run back. First-up after four months 9th of 11 in a Bm72 at Warwick Farm on October 21 over 1300m, 4.5 len behind Youre Not The King carrying 60.5kg at $14. Previously second-up 9th of 13 in a Bm85 at Eagle Farm on May 30 over 1400m, slow going 5 len behind Bengal Diamond carrying 53kg at $3.20. Will be better for that run and is a winning hope. | |||
Savvy Spy stripped fitter for three credible performances when resuming this time and was rewarded for his improving conditions with a sharp victory in BM64 company at Hawkesbury. Having franked that performance when stepping up in grade to win at Warwick Farm last time out, he’s in peak order now, and something like this looks the next logical target for him.
| 3. Savvy Spy (10) 55.5kg27311 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run favourite; settled well back; won by 1.4 len in a Bm78 at Warwick Farm on October 28 over 2400m on a soft track defeating Criteria with 54kg at $2.25. The run before that favourite; won by 1.2 len in a Bm64 at Hawkesbury on October 15 over 2000m on a soft track defeating Think I Do with 58.5kg at $2.60. Hard to stop in this vein of form. | |||
He was an easy winner on the Illawarra Grange first up this time, while Donatello has since finished the runner up in races at Warwick Farm and Randwick, the latter on last weekend’s Golden Eagle program and where he was only just denied. Getting out to the 1800m this week looks to suit, as does the booking of Zac Lloyd.
| 6. Donatello (9) 54.5kg1×122 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start came home strongly from last on the turn; 2nd of 8 in a 3&4yo Bm78 at Randwick on October 31 over 1500m, 0.8 len behind Agent Zero carrying 55kg at $3.60. The race before that 2nd of 7 in a 3&4yo Bm68 at Warwick Farm on October 21 over 1400m, 0.6 len behind Prince Of Verona carrying 59kg at $3.70. One of the chances looking for this trip. | |||
Cashout has hardly put a hoof wrong this time in, winning three of four starts, including races over 1400m at Pakenham and Cranbourne most recently. 1400m is undoubtedly his pet trip and as long as he handles the change to the Sydney way of going, I really can’t find a reason why he won’t be in the finish again.
| 1. Cashout (3) 59kgx1211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. Last start favourite; scored a big 4 len win in a Bm74 at Cranbourne on October 23 over 1400m defeating Didn’t Miss Many carrying 58kg at $1.55. The start before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 3 len in a Bm66 at Pakenham Synthetic on October 2 over 1400m defeating Happy Link carrying 60kg at $1.90. Nicely placed to keep the winning momentum going. | |||
Exo Velocity showed ability at the trials prior to debuting and put the writing on the wall with a smart performance to get up in the Kirkham Plate. There isn’t a lot of exposed form to study ahead of this race, but this filly has an experience edge over most of her rivals and with natural improvement, she’s a winning chance once more.
| 9. Exo Velocity (7) 54.5kg1 | |||
| At debut, won came home strongly from last on the turn and won by a long-neck in a Kirkham at Randwick on October 24 over 1000m defeating Tour De Force carrying 54.5kg at $13. Dominant debut winner and will be even stronger over this trip. | |||
Lazzura has almost been faultless again this time in, and after filling the minors behind Savvy Hallie in the Group 2 Sheraco Stakes first up in September, she’s since recorded consecutive victories in the Golden Pendant and the Invitation at Group 2 level. She’s hard fit and will take a power of beating again, so I am going to select her as my winner in a Same Race Multi and pump up my odds with Gerringong running into the Top 3 and Tuileries running into the Top 4. Gerringong steps out third up and following strong performances in the Nivison and the Invitation, while Tuileries is also third up and coming through the same formline.
Same Race Multi selections:
- 1 Lazzura (Win)
- 3 Gerringong (Top 3)
- 2 Tuileries (Top 4)
| 1. Lazzura (2) 57kg2×311 | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 0.5 len in a G2 The Invitation at Randwick on October 24 over 1400m defeating Infancy with 59kg at $2.70. The race before that favourite; came from midfield and won by 1.2 len in the G2 Golden Pendant at this track on September 26 over 1400m defeating Verona Rose with 58kg at $1.85. Multiple Group winning mare too sharp for these at set weights. | |||
| 2. Tuileries (3) 57kg10×48 | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up 4th of 14 in a G3 The Nivison at this track on October 10 over 1200m, 0.5 len behind Gerringong with 56.5kg at $15. Last start eased back early on 8th of 12 in a G2 The Invitation at Randwick on October 24 over 1400m, 4 len behind Lazzura carrying 58kg at $10. Maps well for this and can to return to form. | |||
| 3. Gerringong (8) 57kg34×14 | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up won by a nose in a G3 The Nivison at this track on October 10 over 1200m defeating Arabian Rose with 54kg at $3.70. Second-up 4th of 12 in a G2 The Invitation at Randwick on October 24 over 1400m, 2 len behind Lazzura carrying 58kg at $4.80. Can take a hand in the finish third up. | |||
Evaporate looks well placed in the Five Diamonds. Having returned to winning form with a sharp performance in the So You Think Stakes at Sandown back in August, the Per Incanto gelding has since mixed his form without a lot of luck. In peak order this week and from the perfect alley, he won’t have any excuses.
| 3. Evaporate (4) 57kg31907 | |||
| Last start sat behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 11 in the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick on October 24 over 1500m, 5 len behind Declichy Boulevard with 58.5kg at $4.80. The run before that 10th of 15 in the G1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield on October 10 over 1600m, 3 len behind Lady Shenandoah carrying 58kg at $12. Deep into the prep and gets a better setup today. | |||
Agatha finished on the placegetters’ heels in BM78 company fresh from a break and has since filled the minors in a couple of BM72 contests. In peak order this week, I don’t think she’ll get a better opportunity to win in Saturday metro company.
| 9. Agatha (1) 55kg8×433 | |||
| Most recently made ground from midfield; 3rd of 10 in a F&M Bm72 at this track on October 14 over 1100m, on a slow track; 0.8 len behind Maybe Moet carrying 59kg at $5. The start before that 3rd of 10 in a F&M Bm72 at Warwick Farm on September 23 over 1200m, slow going 0.5 len behind Maluku with 58.5kg at $3.50. No excuses today fourth up. | |||
Esmahli was only just denied in each of his first two runs back this time, while he was sent off a popular favourite at Cranbourne a couple of weeks ago and didn’t disappoint, kicking away to win in BM70 company. In peak order now and with even luck in the run, I’m confident he can go on with it.
| 1. Esmahli (9)SCRATCHED: | |||
