Trentham hosts an eight-race card on Sunday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 6m. With clear conditions forecast for Sunday, we should be racing on an even surface for the duration.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Trentham meeting on Sunday 25 October below:
Old Fashioned (#1) comes here off a good in the in the Gr.2 Hawke’s Bay Guineas a month ago, and that form has well and truly been franked since, with Asturia coming out and winning impressively last week. He sat midfield on the fence that day before bursting through late to win well. He maps to settle handy to the speed this time from the low draw, where he should have the early speed to lead this small field. He is hard to oppose off what he’s shown to date and is clearly the one to beat.
| 1. Old Fashioned (3)SCRATCHED: | |||
Top Marks (#11) worked home nicely from midfield at Te Rapa on debut a month ago, only just coming up short on the line when beaten a nose in Maiden company. He comes here at just his second career start and should be better for the debut experience. He looks suited remaining at 1400m, in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. He maps to settle midfield with cover again from his low draw under George Rooke. He is on a path to the Gr.1 2000 Guineas next month and would want to be winning this to be making the journey south.
| 11. Top Marks (2) 56kg2 | |||
| Impressive debut last start when second at Te Rapa over 1400m. Has been freshened up since that first outing. Shapes as a leading chance. | |||
Hi Yo Fox Rox (#3) proved a very awkward steer when settling back in a slowly run race at Woodville just over two weeks ago, and was forced to sit wide without cover for much of the 2100m, but still stuck on well to finish 3rd. I’m hoping, more than expecting, that Hayley Hassman pushes forward from the wide draw here, as this race looks to be devoid of any tempo. He is a progressive and lightly tried stayer who clearly still has his quirks, but should take some beating if ridden positively early.
| 3. Hi Yo Fox Rox (8) 56kg15153 | |||
| Lightly raced gelding who was beaten 2.25 lengths into third last start over 2100m at Woodville. One of the chances. | |||
Falcrests Belle (#8) comes here off a last start 4th at this track and trip five weeks ago, where she sat handy but just battled in the straight to finish 4th, beaten over 5L. She’s had a trial to keep her ticking over since then, where she found the line nicely under little pressure. She maps to settle handy to the speed from a low draw, in a 1000m dash that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. I’m happy to side with her at the price in an even field of sprinters.
| 8. Falcrests Belle (4) 57.5kg17×24 | |||
| Returned from a layoff last start and was beaten 5.5 lengths into fourth over 1000m at this track. Rates highly and expected to do much better with that run under her belt. | |||
Miss Jones (#7) resumes here having last been seen finishing 2nd at Te Rapa back in April in R75 company. She heads into this without a trial leading in, which isn’t unusual for Cody Cole’s stable, who often still have them very forward for their first-up runs. She maps to settle handy to the speed from a favourable low draw, where she should be able to tuck in just off the early burn. She can run a big race on resumption here.
| 7. Miss Jones (4) 54kg1142x | |||
| Has not raced since finishing 0.4 lengths away in second over 1200m at Te Rapa on April 25. Won first-up last prep at Ellerslie over 1200m. Likely to feature. | |||
Bradley (#2) heads here second-up off a better run than the result suggested last start at Hastings, having made good late ground from the back without all the favours in the straight. He should be better for that first-up run and looks suited by the rise to 1600m here. He maps to settle back of midfield despite drawing well, as he’s typically not fast away as a general rule. McNab jumps aboard, which is a plus, and he should go close with even luck in running this time.
| 2. Bradley (3) 59.5kg722×8 | |||
| The first up run was just average, finishing eighth and beaten 2.75 lengths over 1400m at Hastings. Generally goes well with that run under the belt. Solid top-three claims if anywhere near his best. | |||
Belles Beau (#2) comes here off a last start 11th in the Gr.1 Howden Insurance Mile at Hastings four weeks ago, where he got back and didn’t have much room at a crucial stage and couldn’t quicken late. He looks suited stepping away from Gr.1 WFA company, carrying just 56.5kg under handicap conditions here. The map is the main concern as he typically settles back in the field, so it may be a question of how far back he settles from the wide draw under Grylls. That said, I’m happy to speculate on him at the price in an even field.
| 2. Belles Beau (11) 56.5kg37×10 | |||
| Taking on an easier race this time after finishing 11th in the Horlicks Plate at his latest appearance over 1600m at Hastings, beaten 6 lengths by Waitak. Huge chance in this line-up. Follow up. | |||
Coulthard (#1) comes here off a dominant win at Hastings a fortnight ago, where he sat midfield on the fence and burst through them late to win well. Whilst he remains in R75 grade here, that last start win sees him carrying a sizeable 62kg impost as a consequence. He maps to settle midfield from the wide draw, where Jonathan Riddell should have his chance to find cover in a field I expect will string out early. Should that eventuate, there’s no reason he can’t go back to back if he cops the weight.
| 1. Coulthard (15)SCRATCHED: | |||