Ōtaki hosts an eight-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Soft6 and the rail in the true position. The forecast on raceday is all clear, however, showers in the lead up on Friday could see the track worsen towards a Soft7.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Ōtaki meeting on Saturday 31 October below:
Cricket (#11) is a locally trained mare who comes here off a 4th at Woodville just over three weeks ago, where she closed off well from a long way back. Now second-up, she looks suited rising to 1600m with that run under her belt. She maps to settle back in the field from the wide draw, in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. She can be finishing off over the top of these late if she’s not standing them too much of a start turning in.
| 11. Cricket (11) 56.5kg344×4 |
Stylish (#8) comes here at just her second start. She ran a great race on debut after getting back early due to rearing at the start, getting home solidly to finish 4th at Taupo. That race rated strongly, and the form has already been franked with Thunder In Motion winning well since. She maps to settle closer here from the low draw if she jumps evenly this time. She should take some beating with natural improvement.
| 8. Stylish (3) 55kg4 |
Zorero (#1) comes here off a very impressive win at Hastings three weeks ago, where he settled back off an good tempo and unleashed a good sprint late. He maps to settle back of midfield with cover again here from the middle draw. The key to his chances is that there looks to be a genuine enough tempo for him to be finishing over the top late. One of the more progressive horses in the country, he can continue on his winning ways here.
| 1. Zorero (6) 59.5kg20×11 |
Puddle Of Mudd (#3) heads here third-up off a 5th here a fortnight ago, not beaten far, where he got back and worked home nicely without having many favours early in the straight. He looks suited getting out over 1400m with those two runs under his belt this time in. With an even getaway from the inside gate, he maps to settle handy to the speed this time. He looks a good each way play in an even field.
| 3. Puddle Of Mudd (1)SCRATCHED: | |||
Old Bill Bone (#8) got back and made no impression after a wide run working without cover throughout in the Gr.3 Spring Sprint at Hastings three weeks ago, finishing well down the track. He heads here third-up and looks well suited remaining at 1400m. He maps to settle back in the field from a wide draw again here, where I expect they’ll be snagging in search of cover early. Tom Wigram takes the reins, which looks a plus as he is ideally placed down in the weights carrying just 51kg after the claim. He looks well weighted to run an improved race with better luck in running.
| 8. Old Bill Bone (7) 51kg33×40 |
Ploy (#7) comes here third-up off a last start 8th in the Gr.3 Taranaki Breeders’ Stakes at Hawera last start, where she got back and tried to mount a run wide out but made no impression. The step out to the mile is a slight query, as she’s yet to be tested beyond 1400m. She maps to settle much closer to the speed this time around, with Samantha Collett jumping aboard from a middle draw. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run a much improved race if she runs out the 1600m.
| 7. Ploy (9)SCRATCHED: | |||
Solidify (#6) comes here off a very good win at Ellerslie a fortnight ago, where he sat just off a strong tempo and ran past them late to score by over 2L. He maps to settle ahead of midfield off a strong tempo again here, where Kelly Myers should have the opportunity to slide across early behind the early burn from a middle draw. He wouldn’t need to improve off his last start effort to be taking plenty of beating in this.
| 6. Solidify (9) 56kg24321 |
Joan’s Joker (#1) heads here off a last start 2nd at this course/distance, where he settled handy but was held up at a crucial stage turning for home, yet finished off strongly once clear to go down by less than a length. He maps to settle back of midfield this time from the wider draw, as he’s not fast away as a general rule. Tom Wigram takes the reins, and his 3kg claim helps offset the 60kg impost. He can go one better with some luck from the draw.
| 1. Joan’s Joker (9) 57kg10402 |


