VRC Oaks Tips 2026: Predictions & Best Bets

We have VRC Oaks tips and predictions for the Group 1 race at Flemington on Thursday.

VRC Oaks odds have Proxima Dea and De Armas best-backed to win, and they’ll be tough to beat.

Best Bet

#4 De Armas @ $3.00

We were taken with the win by De Armas in the Wakeful Stakes last Saturday, and that’s always an excellent form guide for the VRC Oaks.

The Chris Waller-trained filly scored by 1.3 lengths going away from them, and if she is anywhere near that level again, she should prove tough to beat.

Settling in the run is key for her, and that’s all on Waller. She raced a bit keen in New Zealand, mostly over sprinting distances, but Waller has trained her to settle, and she could become a Group 1 winner.

She gets every chance off the inside draw, and getting James McDonald in the saddle is a bonus. He won the Derby, and he’ll be looking to win the Oaks, and we fancy his chances of securing the 3YO double.

Take the $2.90 odds before she shortens on race day.

Flemington R8 – Crown Oaks (G1)

Open Race time:

	4. De Armas (1) 56kgx5241 J: James McDonaldT: Chris Waller	3.10WIN 1.26PLACE
Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite; ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m defeating Girl With A Pearl with 56kg at $3.60. The race before that 4th of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 3 len behind Saintly Dancer with 56kg at $8.50. Very strong on Saturday and should stay this out well.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 05/11/2026 05:18:53 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Next Best

#1 Proxima Dea @ $2.40

We expect the two favourites to battle it out in the straight, and being an unbeaten filly comes with a lot of hype.

She has yet to suffer defeat in five runs, and she keeps finding ways to win, even when she looks beaten. Having that asset makes her tough to beat on Thursday, and she is good enough to put this field away with ease.

The David Payne-trained daughter of Tarzino is bred to run 2500m, and if she can find cover from barrier 19, she should make her run around the home turn and look to run past them at Flemington.

Her odds have drifted a touch since opening, but we would be surprised if she didn’t figure in the finish.

Flemington R8 – Crown Oaks (G1)

Open Race time:

	1. Proxima Dea (15) 56kg11111 J: Zac LloydT: David Payne	2.20WIN 1.22PLACE
Yet to taste defeat in five starts. When well in the market, ran on from midfield and won by a neck in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1800m defeating Wonka with 54.5kg at $4. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 1.5 len in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 2000m defeating Global Goal with 54.5kg at $3.70. Smashed the Derby winner last time and sets the benchmark here.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 05/11/2026 05:18:53 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Best Roughie

#15 Tharwa @ $27.00

It’s never wise to leave out a Waller-trained runner, and although she’s the second-string runner from this stable, she could run a big race.

The daughter of Tagaloa has yet to win a race, but she has two placings, with those coming earlier this preparation at Illawarra Grange and Warwick Farm. Sydney form has been excellent during the Melbourne Cup Carnival, so that’s a good sign.

Damian Lane knows what it takes to win at the top level. His experience could be enough to get Tharwa home, and given the $26 odds, she is worth including in VRC Oaks predictions to boost payouts.

Flemington R8 – Crown Oaks (G1)

Open Race time:

	15. Tharwa (14) 56kg43249 J: Damian LaneT: Chris Waller	35.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Last start 9th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 7 len behind De Armas carrying 55kg at $8.50. The race before that 4th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 1.1 len behind Quick Finish carrying 56kg at $14. Solid on Saturday, should be running on well late.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 05/11/2026 05:18:53 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Same Race Multi

Punters get value odds with our VRC Oaks SRM, which includes our three selected runners.

We have De Armas Top 2, Proxima Dea Top 2, and Tharwa Top 6, which pays $10.50 for our three-runner SRM.

Our top two picks should run the quinella. They are the best fillies in the race, and we get added value by including Tharwa to finish in the top 6.

Flemington R8 – Crown Oaks (G1)

Open Race time:

	1. Proxima Dea (15) 56kg11111 J: Zac LloydT: David Payne	2.20WIN 1.22PLACE
Yet to taste defeat in five starts. When well in the market, ran on from midfield and won by a neck in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1800m defeating Wonka with 54.5kg at $4. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 1.5 len in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 2000m defeating Global Goal with 54.5kg at $3.70. Smashed the Derby winner last time and sets the benchmark here.
	4. De Armas (1) 56kgx5241 J: James McDonaldT: Chris Waller	3.10WIN 1.26PLACE
Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite; ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m defeating Girl With A Pearl with 56kg at $3.60. The race before that 4th of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 3 len behind Saintly Dancer with 56kg at $8.50. Very strong on Saturday and should stay this out well.
	15. Tharwa (14) 56kg43249 J: Damian LaneT: Chris Waller	35.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Last start 9th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 7 len behind De Armas carrying 55kg at $8.50. The race before that 4th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 1.1 len behind Quick Finish carrying 56kg at $14. Solid on Saturday, should be running on well late.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 05/11/2026 05:18:53 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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VRC Oaks 2026 Odds

Flemington R8 – Crown Oaks (G1)

Open Race time:

	1. Proxima Dea (15) 56kg11111 J: Zac LloydT: David Payne	2.20WIN 1.22PLACE
Yet to taste defeat in five starts. When well in the market, ran on from midfield and won by a neck in the G3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1800m defeating Wonka with 54.5kg at $4. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 1.5 len in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 24 over 2000m defeating Global Goal with 54.5kg at $3.70. Smashed the Derby winner last time and sets the benchmark here.
	2. Icelady (4) 56kgx2123 J: Ethan BrownT: Ciaron Maher	7.50WIN 2.00PLACE
Racing well recently. At the latest run led but faded 3rd of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 2.75 len behind De Armas with 57kg at $3.60. The start before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 1.3 len behind Saintly Dancer carrying 56kg at $11. Very game on a hot speed last time, sets up nicely here for the Melbourne Cup winning combination of Ethan Brown & Ciaron Maher.
	3. Quick Finish (5) 56kg51113 J: Jye McneilT: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy	9.50WIN 2.60PLACE
At the latest run held ground to the line 3rd of 16 in the G1 Victoria Derby at this track on October 31 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Stormy Marco with 55kg at $21. The race before that won by 0.5 len in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m defeating Your Colour carrying 56kg at $15. Very game in Derby and has ticked the 2500m box.
	4. De Armas (1) 56kgx5241 J: James McDonaldT: Chris Waller	3.10WIN 1.26PLACE
Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite; ran on from midfield and won by 1.3 len in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m defeating Girl With A Pearl with 56kg at $3.60. The race before that 4th of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 3 len behind Saintly Dancer with 56kg at $8.50. Very strong on Saturday and should stay this out well.
	5. Voynichese (6) 56kgx8777 J: Declan BatesT: Nick Olive	71.00WIN 10.00PLACE
Last start 7th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 6 len behind De Armas with 56kg at $18. Before that 7th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 2 len behind Quick Finish carrying 57kg at $8. Has a bit to find.
	6. Salann (10) 56kgx8063 J: Rachel KingT: Ben Brisbourne	46.00WIN 5.50PLACE
Most recently 3rd of 11 in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 2.25 len behind True Rebel carrying 55kg at $7. The run before that eased back early on 6th of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 3.5 len behind Saintly Dancer with 56kg at $101. Nice run against the boys last start, in the mix.
	7. Churchill Rose (8) 56kg62124 J: Craig WilliamsT: Andrew Gluyas	41.00WIN 7.00PLACE
Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 4 len behind De Armas carrying 55kg at $19. The start before that gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 8 in the LR Hill Smith Stakes at Morphettville on October 17 over 1800m, head behind Kosaji with 55kg at $15. Measured up well latest, not hopeless.
	8. Your Colour (11) 56kg01320 J: Blake ShinnT: Chris Waller	31.00WIN 6.00PLACE
Last start 11th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 7 len behind De Armas with 55kg at $5. The start before that 2nd of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 0.5 len behind Quick Finish carrying 56kg at $9. Has a bit to find on the Wakeful run.
	10. Expensive Taste (9) 56kg74625 J: Luke CurrieT: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy	151.00WIN 17.00PLACE
At the latest run 5th of 13 in the LR Geelong Classic on October 21 over 2200m, 4.5 len behind Murshidi carrying 55kg at $31. The run before that 2nd of 14 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat on September 30 over 2016m, 2.25 len behind Sister’s Run carrying 55kg at $5. Not going well enough.
	11. Notified (12) 56kg12488 J: Billy EganT: Archie Alexander	81.00WIN 11.00PLACE
Last start 8th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 2 len behind Quick Finish with 56kg at $91. The run before that 8th of 12 in the LR Super Impose Stakes at this track on October 3 over 1800m, in the wet; 11 len behind Miss Waititi with 55kg at $20. Looks tested in this field.
	13. Nikitria (13) 56kgx1056 J: Ben MelhamT: Clinton McDonald	101.00WIN 13.00PLACE
Last start 6th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 6 len behind De Armas carrying 55kg at $20. The run before that from last on the turn 5th of 8 in a 3yo Bm70 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1600m, 3.5 len behind Mister Whiskers carrying 56.5kg at $17. Solid on Saturday, not the worst.
	15. Tharwa (14) 56kg43249 J: Damian LaneT: Chris Waller	35.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Last start 9th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 7 len behind De Armas carrying 55kg at $8.50. The race before that 4th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 1.1 len behind Quick Finish carrying 56kg at $14. Solid on Saturday, should be running on well late.
	16. Shameful Impulse (7) 56kg51395 J: William PikeT: Rob Blacker	41.00WIN 5.00PLACE
Most recently 5th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 5.5 len behind De Armas with 55kg at $101. The start before that 9th of 14 in a G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 2000m, 5 len behind Quick Finish with 56kg at $61. Others seem to have her measure.
	17. Quynh (3) 56kgx4410 J: Jamie MottT: Emma-Lee & David Browne	151.00WIN 17.00PLACE
Most recently 10th of 17 in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at this track on October 31 over 2000m, 7 len behind De Armas with 55kg at $61. The run before that ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Bendigo on October 17 over 1600m defeating Adakite carrying 56kg at $9. Others rate better this time.
	18. Little Ally Bama (2) 56kg5431 J: Linda MeechT: Andrew Bobbin	126.00WIN 15.00PLACE
Last start won by a nose in a Mdn-Sw at Horsham on October 18 over 2100m defeating Courting carrying 55kg at $2.50. The race before that 3rd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Geelong on October 7 over 1765m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Fringilla with 55kg at $20. Will need to do even more to match this field.
	19. Courting (16) 56kg0332 J: Kerrin McevoyT: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy	101.00WIN 13.00PLACE
At the latest run raced on the pace when 2nd of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Horsham on October 18 over 2100m, nose behind Little Ally Bama with 55kg at $1.85. The race before that came from midfield; 3rd of 14 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat on September 30 over 2016m, 5.5 len behind Sister’s Run with 55kg at $5.50. Looking to others.
	9. Joely (18)SCRATCHED:
	12. Refuse To Curtsy (13)SCRATCHED:
	14. Waiheke Rose (6)SCRATCHED:
	20. Chocolate Freckles (9)SCRATCHED:

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 05/11/2026 05:18:53 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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