NRL Tips & Preview | Preliminary Finals

Preliminary finals weekend kicks off with an absolute belter from Suncorp Stadium with the Dolphins 80 minutes away from making the decider in their first finals campaign while the Roosters look to return to the big game for the first time since 2019 and the fourth time in the Trent Robinson era. The numbers are certainly in favour of the Dolphins advancing in a low-scoring game. Over the last decade, 17 of the 20 teams who have enjoyed the week off have won the preliminary final while 13 of the last 16 have failed to surpass 44 points. The Dolphins won both matches between these teams convincingly this year – 48-10 and 26-12 – with the latter coming two weeks out from the finals. The respective records of each team against Top 4 opposition: the Dolphins are 16-9 against the spread while the Roosters are 10-19 against the number. The Dolphins have covered six of eight at Suncorp, six of eight as a favourite of less than a converted try and seven of 10 off conceding 16 or fewer. The Roosters have covered just four of 11 at Suncorp and three of 10 as a dog of less than a converted try. The Dolphins can be bet with confidence. The under is also a very good play here. Preliminary finals have generally been low-scoring and we have two of the four best defensive sides meeting here. The under has hit in five straight Dolphins night games and is 5-1 when the Dolphins have rest of at least 11 days. The under has hit in 12 of the last 16 Roosters night games and is 31-21 when the Roosters are off conceding 18 or fewer. Jeremy Marshall-King has just three tries this season but it is more than noteworthy that two of those have come in his two games against the Sydney Roosters. The Roosters concede 29% of tries through their middle third channel – the third highest percentage of any team this year – with teams taking advantage of the big Roosters middles when fatigue sets in. The Roosters weakest edge is their right which sets up well for Herbie Farnworth. Farnworth has five tries in his last four games, has scored in both games against the Roosters this year and has crossed in four of his last five against the Chooks.

Tips
Best: Dolphins -2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins/Under 45.5 ($3.30)
Tryscorer: Jeremy Marshall-King ($41 First, $7.50 Anytime)
SGM: Jeremy Marshall-King Try/Herbie Farnworth Try ($13.02)

Penrith go in heavily favoured against surprise prelim opponents Newcastle. Whether Penrith can cover the big line is up for debate but what likely isn’t in question is that the Knights are going to struggle to score points. Penrith were the top defensive unit this season but find another gear in big finals games. In their last six preliminary finals they have not conceded more than 16 while they kept opposition to one try in half of those. That sets up well for the under, helped by the fact that 13 of the last 16 preliminary finals have tallied 44 or fewer points. Both of these teams are in major under spots. The under has hit in 10 of the last 13 when Penrith play a team from outside the Top 4 while it is 16-7 when the Panthers play on rest of 11-plus days. The under is 27-15 when the Panthers are off scoring 20 or fewer. The under is 10-5 when the Knights are off conceding 10 or fewer and 15-10 when the Knights are off scoring 12 or fewer. The under is the best bet of the weekend. Dylan Edwards has absolutely feasted against Newcastle of late with five tries in his last four games including a hat-trick when these teams met back in April. Edwards scored in the opening week of the finals against the Roosters in a low-scorer and has two preliminary finals tries to his name while wearing the No.1 jersey. Liam Henry is a highly undervalued tryscorer who has nine tries in 48 games. He has crossed four times in 16 matches this year with the four coming in his last 10 games.

Tips
Best: Under 41.5 ($1.96)
Next: Newcastle 10 Points or Less ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Dylan Edwards ($13 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Edwards Try/Liam Henry Try ($17.72)