We are just two weeks into the season but we are already at a critical juncture for those teams that have started 0-2 with injuries to quarterbacks not helping many situations.
Atlanta have been one of the most unimpressive teams through two weeks of the season but with starting QB Michael Penix Jnr returning and the Packers wildly overrated this is the spot to be with them. Teams starting 0-2 against 1-1 teams are 42-19-1 against the spread in Week 3 since 2010 while 0-2 teams without a cover are 30-12 against the number in Week 3 when an underdog. Kevin Stefanski is 5-1 against the spread on short rest while underdogs off scoring six or fewer are 37-25-1 against the number. With Jordan Love a poor 12-21-1 against the spread and favourites of more than a field goal off overtime playing Thursday Night Football 2-12 against the number, the Falcons are a highly confident play. No player will be happier to see Michael Penix return under centre than Drake London. London has just six catches on 10 targets for 80 yards over the first two games of this season without a score. When Penix played last season London had at least five catches in seven of nine games while he topped 100 yards in five of the last six. They combined for six scores. Christian Watson has been outstanding this year with 10 catches for 188 yards and three touchdowns.
Tips
Best: Atlanta +5 ($1.90)
Next: Atlanta Win ($2.95)
Touchdown: Drake London ($10.50 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Drake London TD/Drake London 6+ Receptions/Christian Watson 70+ Receiving Yards ($7.20)
There have been few teams as bland or as underwhelming as the LA Chargers this year, who have opened the season with back-to-back losses when favoured by six or more points in each of the first two. This is the spot to be with the Chargers though, a team that never lives up to expectations but tends to show up when there is no pressure. Justin Herbert is 12-3-1 against the spread when an underdog of at least a field goal while Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 against the number when on a rest disadvantage of at least three days. Teams without a cover are 30-12 against the number in Week 3 when an underdog while teams like Buffalo averaging 31ppg are 11-23 against the spread in Week 3. Chips in the Chargers. Tre Harris has been playing WR2 time with snap counts of 75% and 82% and nine targets, making his price to score utterly obscene even as a big outsider. He will get a positive game script. Omarion Hampton has been the mule this year with 35 carries for 137 yards and scores in each of the Chargers’ two losses. Josh Allen has rushed for two touchdowns in each of his first two games this season.
Tips
Best: LA Chargers +7 ($1.95)
Next: LA Chargers ($3.75)
Touchdown: Tre Harris ($31 First, $5.60 Anytime)
SGM: Tre Harris Try/Omarion Hampton Try/Josh Allen Try ($17.59)
Our third straight unappealing underdog is once again an excellent bet with San Francisco in a dire spot. Unbeaten teams in Week 3 who have outscored their opponents by 25 or more points are 19-31-2 against the spread while favourites of three or more off conceding 14ppg are 14-31-1 against the spread in Week 3. The 49ers have not covered their last eight division games, they have failed to cover their last four as a home division favourite and they are 2-9 against the number off scoring 30-plus. The Cardinals are getting too many points. Michael Wilson is a highly underrated receiver and the most reliable wideout target for Jacoby Brissett. He has seven targets in each of the first two weeks. He scored six touchdowns the last five weeks to finish 2025. Brock Purdy has rushed for at least 21 yards in seven of eight games. The under hits at 58% when two division teams meet and the total is 44.5 or higher.
Tips
Best: Arizona +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Arizona Win ($4.25)
Touchdown: Michael Wilson ($19 First, $4.10 Anytime)
SGM: Under 48/Michael Wilson TD/Brock Purdy 30+ Rush Yards ($17.03)
There is no better total to play this week than taking the under on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are in huge under spots. The under is 12-4 when the Broncos play in September. The under is 67-45 over Sean McVay’s career while it is 29-14-1 when Matt Stafford plays in Prime Time. The under is 27-9 when there is a road favourite with the total north of 44 in Week 3. The under can be bet with complete confidence. Terrance Ferguson has been a target machine this year and with a chance that Puka Nacua is again out the focus for the Rams will be on three tight end sets. Ferguson had six catches and a score on nine targets against the Giants. Evan Engram has looked good in two games with a touchdown in Denver’s season opener.
Tips
Best: Under 45 ($1.90)
Next: Under 38 ($3.35)
Touchdown: Terrance Ferguson ($17 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Terrance Ferguson TD/Evan Engram TD ($24.56)
Chicago have spent the week dealing with the embarrassment of Caleb Williams’ exit last week, the former No.1 pick leaving on a cart in tears with what turned out to be a hamstring strain. The Eagles are decidedly a non-cover team and they are not nearly as good as advertised this season. Home underdogs against unbeaten teams cover at 60% while underdogs off scoring six or fewer are 37-25-1 against the spread since 2022. Jalen Hurts is 13-20 against the spread when favoured on the road while the Bears have covered seven straight on the backend of consecutive home games. Chicago are a quality bet. The redzone touches between Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift were split evenly last week while Monangai played 43% of snaps in Week 1 and 34% of snaps in Week 2 – enough for him to get across. Dontayvion Wicks has been quickly integrated into the Eagles offense with 70-plus yards in his first two games in Eagles green.
Tips
Best: Chicago +4.5 ($1.92)
Next: Chicago Win ($2.85)
Touchdown: Kyle Monangai ($11 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Kyle Monangai TD/Dontayvion Wicks 70+ Receiving Yards ($11.82)
