Tasman missed a good chance to step one foot into the finals on Friday, losing to Auckland 22-24. It could barely have been a better start for the Mako in front of their home fans, clinically working their way up the field before Maloni Kunawave, Kyren Taumoefolau and Macca Springer linked up to score inside the first few minutes. Tasman’s lead was short-lived, as the visitors scored a couple of quick tries, but a William Havili penalty goal made it a 15-14 lead at the break. When Taumoefolau then crossed for a try of his own with 20 minutes to play to put Tasman up by two scores, the Mako were clearly in the box seat, but once again they were unable to hold off an Auckland response, as the visitors controlled the final 15 minutes of play to win the contest. Tasman will be kicking themselves for not taking their chances, with their 13 entries into Auckland’s 22 resulting in just 22 points, with turnovers again plaguing their play. This time it was 15 turnovers and 12 penalties conceded, while their set piece also let them down. Shannon Frizell was impressive in his all-round play, with 10 carries, one line break, 14 tackles and three turnovers, while Taumoefolau had another dangerous attacking performance and Springer made the most of his chances.
Bay of Plenty dusted off their cobwebs to record a crucial 32-17 victory over Hawke’s Bay on Saturday. After a pair of losses in the two prior rounds dropped them out of the top eight, this win was hugely important and certainly unexpected, being 12.5-point underdogs at kick-off despite being at home. The game-winning moments came either side of half time, as the Steamers held on without conceding a point despite having two yellow cards, before Sione Tupou scored a try at the 50-minute mark for a 22-5 lead. The Magpies threatened from there, with two quick tries making it a five-point game, but a opportunistic kick regather from Cole Forbes saw him run away to seal the win for BOP. It was a convincing performance from the Steamers, whose work in tight won them this game. They were clinical at the breakdown and conceded just eight turnovers while keeping plenty of pressure on the Magpies. Forbes was a constant threat, ending with seven defenders beaten from 18 carries, while the loosies of Joe Johnston, Veveni Lasaqa and Nikora Broughton trucked away on attack all game long.
There are a few All Blacks back for both teams on Thursday, with Timoci Tavatavanawai, Noah Hotham and Leicester Fainga’anuku (bench) in Tasman’s squad and Emoni Narawa, Fehi Fineanganofo and Pasilio Tosi retuning for Bay of Plenty. That ensures a scorching Thursday night showdown, and I am picking it to be a very tight game. Bay of Plenty have really tightened up their defence of late, conceding an average of just 26 points per game across their last five, and that’s seen the under hit in all of them. The under has also hit in three of Tasman’s last four games and is my bet for the opener.
Best
Under 63.5 ($1.90)
Value
Power Plays — Eli Oudenryn 1st OR 2nd Try Scorer & Tasman Win by 1 – 12 ($21)
Try Scorer
Kyren Taumoefolau ($10 First, $1.60 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Under 63.5 / Kyren Taumoefolau Try / Veveni Lasaqa Try ($14.88)
Auckland will be starting to believe after picking up their third win of the season last week, with a 24-22 triumph over Tasman keeping their finals chances alive. We’ve seen an improved defence from Auckland in their last five games, conceding an average of just 26.4 points, and it was their defensive tenacity that earned them this win. Despite the Mako enjoying 13 entries into Auckland’s 22, the visitors held them to just three tries and it was the composure of Steven Bates’ side that helped them seal the win. After going back-and-forth in the opening hour of play, the Mako managed to jump into a 14-22 lead, but Auckland found a response again, this time through Payton Spencer, and Alex Harford then found the winner from the tee with a couple of minutes to play. Harford was crucial to the late comeback, while Che Clark worked hard throughout the contest with 19 tackles and 13 carries. Xavier Tito-Harris was also an important factor, carrying relentlessly all night and setting up the play for Spencer’s try.
Manawatū’s three-game winning run came to an end on Saturday, losing to Waikato 27-36. The Turbos were in good position to win at the 45-minute mark, with a George Worboys penalty goal giving the visitors a commanding 24-12 lead. It all fell apart from there though, as Waikato struck back almost immediately, taking a 24-26 lead just 15 minutes later. It was a tit-for-tat game from there, but the Mooloos were able to land the knockout blow with five minutes to play, scoring from close range. It was another big shift from TK Howden, particularly in the carry, that gave the Turbos the chance of a win. Hunter Kennedy was also promising in just his second-ever game, with a try and a couple of line breaks, while Reece MacDonald took his chances from the back.
There are just a couple of changes to Auckland’s starting team but Manawatū will be dealing with a rather fresh XV, with Kyle Brown, John Tapueluelu, Flyn Yates and Tane Roiri coming into the starting squad. The big out is George Worboys, but MacDonald has proven to be a solid option at #10 this season in his few starts there. That will ensure that the Turbos are right in this fight and I am happy to take them as underdogs of more than a converted try. They have covered their last four games and are value here.
Best
Manawatū +7.5 ($1.90)
Value
Manawatū ($2.90)
Try Scorer
Brayden Iose ($17 First, $2.45 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Brayden Iose Try / Kyle Brown Try / Harlyn Saunoa Try ($12.40)
Northland did what they had to do in Wellington last week, recording a bonus-point victory to stay at the top of the table. With a slew of regular starters, including Sam Nock, Rivez Reihana, Brady Rush and Rob Rush, on the bench or out of the squad entirely, it was a thinned-out Taniwha team but that didn’t end up mattering against the winless Wellingtonians. It was a shaky start for the visitors, getting into a 7-14 deficit early on, but they dominated play from there, especially once the likes of Reihana and James Mullan entered the game. Come the end of play, the Taniwha had eight tries to their name and were very deserving of the win, as they defended well when needed and gave the hosts all sorts of grief on attack. James Ramm showed his class with a couple of tries in what was an excellent attacking display, while Grady Forbes stood out in the pack with some strong tackles and a try. Reuben Stewart was also dangerous with a couple of tries and a try assist and Nathan Salmon was hard to stop in space.
Counties Manukau suffered their heaviest home defeat in over two years on Thursday, getting thumped by Otago 21-50. It was again a promising start to the game for the Steelers, as they scored two tries — one through Sione Molia and another through Gibson Popoali’i — in the opening 20 minutes for a 14-7 lead, but it was a short-lived advantage. By halftime, Otago were up 14-26 and Jimmy Tupou was yellow-carded moments before the hooter to add salt into the wound. The Razorbacks continued the onslaught in the second 40, with Counties having just 40% possession and 36% territory in the contest, and it was perhaps fortunate for the Steelers that it was only a 29-point margin at the end of the night. Peniasi Malimali was a standout for Counties off the bench, with a try and some big carries, while fellow try-scorers Sione Molia and Popoali’i were also impressive in patches.
Northland have reintroduced their big guns this week and are also bringing All Black Simon Parker into the fold, making it a stacked Taniwha team for this Ranfurly Shield defence. Aussies Hudson Creighton and James Ramm fill in the wings, while Jordan Trainor is back at fullback, while the Steelers welcome Josh Gray back into the team on the right wing. As much as they will get up for it, Counties are well and truly out of their depth here against a Super Rugby-level opposition. Even with the line at more than 20 points, it’s not high enough. Northland have covered the spread in both of their Shield defences this year and I expect them to do so again on Saturday.
Best
Northland -23.5 ($1.90)
Value
Northland 31-40 ($4.60)
Try Scorer
James Mullan ($11.50 First, $1.80 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
James Mullan Try / Jordan Trainor Try / Rivez Reihana Try ($11.40)
Canterbury worked their way to a 25-24 victory over North Harbour, holding on in a tight finish to pick up a hugely important victory. Now just one point out of the top four, the defending champions will be eyeing up a home semi-final and are still every chance of a top two finish, and they’ll be stoked to have picked up the win on the road last Sunday. It was all George Bell in the first half, as the hooker completed his hat-trick on the stroke of halftime for a 15-7 lead. Chay Fihaki added a try of his own shortly after the break to make it a 20-7 buffer, with another try from the star wing later on in the piece making it 25-17. However, Harbour had more points in them to make it a one-point game with one minute to play and with Canterbury having just 13 men on the field, but the red and blacks somewhat controversially held on from there. Bell was the star with his three tries and constant carries, but Fihaki was the real danger with consistently dangerous runs, two tries and two ruck turnovers. Ngane Punivai was also reliable on the other wing and Tahlor Cahill had a big defensive shift with 28 tackles.
Southland fell to another heavy defeat on Sunday, with a 19-55 loss to Taranaki effectively ending their season. After shocking the competition with a 43-12 demolition of Bay of Plenty the week prior, the Stags would have been hoping to pull off a similar upset in New Plymouth, but they were far from doing so. In fairness, Southland were competitive across the first half, only for a late Taranaki try to make it a 14-24 score line at the break. It was never close from then on, as the Stags consistently slipped off tackles and threw away ball at set piece to allow the hosts to run riot. In all, Southland conceded 11 line breaks and 14 penalties which is simply to much to give away to a good Bulls side. Jimmy Taylor had a solid night at fullback and had a couple of key defensive plays to stop the score blowing out even further, while Sean Withy had another busy night with 15 carries and 17 tackles.
Dallas McLeod and Jamie Hannah have both been brought into the starting team for Canterbury, while Fihaki is on the bench. Southland welcome back All Black No.8 Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, as well as Glen Vaihu on the left wing, bringing a lot of firepower to this clash and I am expecting fireworks. Canterbury have run up some big scores of late, especially at One NZ Stadium, where the over is 3-1 this season. The over is also 8-3 in Canterbury’s last 11 home games and another big total is on the cards.
Best
Over 68.5 ($1.87)
Value
Canterbury 21-30 ($3.70)
Try Scorer
George Bell ($9.50 First, $1.46 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
George Bell Try / Dallas McLeod Try / Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa Try ($8.76)
North Harbour will be feeling like they missed out on their chance to go to the top of the table last week, losing to Canterbury 24-25 at home. It was a windy scene at North Harbour Stadium and it was the hosts who had the wind at their backs in the opening 40, but not a lot went their way. Kade Banks scored their only try, being on the receiving end of a Hunter Rice kick before beating a couple of defenders to score, but that was the extent of Harbour’s first half scoring, making it a 7-15 halftime scoreline. Canterbury were the first to score in the second half, putting Harbour in quite the hole, but their trusty attack, which has been elite all season long, found its stride from there. Banks was again involved in their second try, slicing through Canterbury’s defence before finding Samuel Tu’itupou on the flank for a try, before Riley Tofilau bustled his way over from close range to make it 17-20. Tofilau scored another in the 79th minute to make it a 24-25 ball-game, and with Canterbury playing with 13 men, Harbour had the chance to finish the comeback, but referee Paul Williams deemed a botched Canterbury intercept attempt to be a knock-on, as opposed to a deliberate knock-on, seeing the game come to a close. Cam Howell steered his back line well, with Banks being the main threat out wide and Rory Taylor finding space often, and Tristyn Cook was again a defensive menace with 15 tackles.
Otago stayed in the hunt for a top-place finish with a 50-21 thumping of Counties Manukau on Thursday. The Steelers had no answers for Otago’s attack, which was red-hot all night long and set up a plethora of scoring opportunities. It could have been a huge margin if the visitors were were polished, but they still did more than enough on their way to an eight-try outing. Their 17 turnovers and 10 penalties conceded only dented their momentum a little, as they finished the night with a whopping 64% territory and 60% possession. Christian Lio-Willie led the charge with a try, to go with 18 carries, three offloads and 11 tackles, while Jake Te Hiwi, Lucas Casey, Ben Lopas and Sam Nemec-Vial all had impactful contributions.
North Harbour have the pleasure of bringing back the steady hands of Motikai Murray and Leo Gordon for this contest, while Josh Timu returns for the visitors and Cameron Millar reclaims Patrick Pellegrini’s spot at #10. The bigger news, though, is that stars Banks, Cook and Jed Melvin are all out of the squad for Harbour, and that really tips this game in Otago’s favour. With a strong bench to call on, I can see the visitors running away with this one.
Best
Otago -3.5 ($1.90)
Value
Otago 1-12 ($2.90)
Try Scorer
Sam Nemec-Vial ($16 First, $x Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Sam Nemec-Vial Try / Christian Lio-Willie Try / George Reeves Try ($21.88)
A winless season now looks like a near certainty for Wellington after last week’s 28-52 loss to Northland. At home and against a Northland team which benched and rested a selection of first-string players, the door was left ajar for the Lions to pick up an elusive victory, and they showed some promise early on with a couple of strong tries through Du’Plessis Kirifi. However, the game eventually got away from the hosts from there, as the Taniwha found their groove and ran in eight tries to put the game well out of the Wellingtonians’ reach. It was a slightly better defensive showing from the hosts this time around, with an 82% tackle completion against a tricky Northland attack, but their 16 turnovers led to a lot of pain and their set piece struggles constantly saw Wellington get on the back foot in the second half. Kirifi was the Lions’ best, with another barn-storming attacking game and a couple of trademark turnovers and Stanley Solomon was a live-wire off the bench with a nifty try and a 50-22.
Waikato’s three-game losing run came to an entertaining end on Saturday, overcoming Manawatū 36-27. It was a tense battle, in which the Mooloos were made to look second-rate for the majority, but they found a way to win yet again to get them to a 4-4 record and fourth on the ladder. Senita Lauaki impressively barged over from the back of the scrum to score the game’s first try, but Waikato’s lead was short-lived, with the Turbos building a 12-21 lead by the half. It got out to 12-24 shortly after the break, but that was when the hosts flicked the switch, starting with a strong run and try from Mitch Jacobson. Taha Kemara then broke Manawatū’s line to put the Mooloos in front, with a Hamilton Burr try five minutes from the hooter sealing the win. It ended up being a deserved win for Waikato, being slightly more organised and disciplined than the visitors in a rather scrappy contest all-round. Lauaki was a big positive at set piece and in tight, Oli Mathis was a workhorse with 13 carries and 17 tackles and Kemara pulled the strings well in the back line.
Another loss is surely on the cards here for Wellington, with a strong Waikato team in front of them. Cortez Ratima has been inserted at halfback for the Mooloos, while Manaaki Boyle-Tiatia comes back into the team as reserve hooker. The visitors have a lot of attacking weapons across the park and, as we have seen all season, Wellington are not going to be able to provide the defensive answers. Lions games are averaging over 75 points per game this season, meaning there’s value in this 60.5-point line.
Best
Over 60.5 ($1.95)
Value
Waikato 21-30 ($4.20)
Try Scorer
Cortez Ratima ($13 First, $1.96 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Cortez Ratima Try / Austin Anderson Try / Du’Plessis Kirifi Try ($16.76)
All of a sudden Hawke’s Bay have lost two games in a row, following their 17-32 defeat to Bay of Plenty last week. Following up from their shock loss to North Harbour in Round 7, the market was picking the Magpies to bounce back in style, as 12.5-point favourites in Tauranga, but they simply never got going. Folau Fakatava scored their first try by winning the race to a loose ball to make it 5-7, but that was as close as the visitors would get, despite scoring back-to-back tries midway through the second half to make it a five-point game. It was a strangely quiet attacking display from Hawke’s Bay, as they gained just six entries to the Steamers’ 22. It came on the back of 16 turnovers and 15 penalties conceded, meaning the Magpies were constantly on the back foot, and they never looked like turning it around. Darby Lancaster looked like Hawke’s Bay’s most dangerous, with a few incisive runs, and Fakatava had a couple of probing carries and was impressive at the breakdown. Sam Smith led the defensive line with a whopping 34 tackles, closely followed by Tom Allen.
Taranaki were clinical in their 55-19 drubbing of Southland last week. Needing a big win to keep pace with the top eight, the Bulls put together a great attacking performance against a plucky Southland outfit to run in nine tries and ultimately breeze to victory. There wasn’t a lot separating the teams late in the first half, before Bradley Slater coasted over the line on the back of a lineout maul to make it a 24-14 halftime lead. From there, the Bulls were comfortably in control, with Jayden Sa and Kini Naholo (twice) crossing the chalk before the 60-minute mark to build an unassailable 41-14 lead. While there were some elements of ill discipline and poor ball control, Taranaki largely looked good in the win. Meihana Grindley continued his good form with another try and a few big carries, while Naholo caused havoc whenever he touched the ball. Josefa Namosimalua and Jesse Parete worked hard up front and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens was also at the centre of a lot of Taranaki’s positive spells.
Hawke’s Bay have brought Bailyn Sullivan and Hunter Morrison back into the starting team as they load up for Sunday’s big battle. Meanwhile, Logan Crowley returns from injury for Taranaki off the bench and All Black locks Josh Lord and Scott Barrett form an elite new second row. These are a couple of loaded squads but I am not ready to move on from the Magpies’ early-season successes just yet. They were the best team in the competition through the opening six rounds and have covered six of their last seven at home. I am backing them to get the job done.
Best
Hawke’s Bay +1.5 ($1.92)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($3.50)
Try Scorer
Darby Lancaster ($12 First, $1.80 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Darby Lancaster Try / Kini Naholo Try / Folau Fakatava Try ($8.54)