We have Vain Stakes tips and predictions for the Group 3 race at Caulfield on Saturday, where punters can invest in an even betting field.
Vain Stakes odds have Closer to Free at the top of the market following a run in the Golden Slipper, but we’re looking elsewhere in the 1100m sprint for colts and geldings.
We’re keeping the faith with Hard Kick, who comes off a disappointing effort at Flemington. However, he was clearly in need of a hit out, and punters should expect a much stronger effort at Caulfield.
Moving away from running down the straight at Flemington should help him. He’s an on-pace runner, and if he finds the front, he should give a good kick, which is the benefit of being on the speed at this track.
The 3YO son of All Too Hard hasn’t been missed with Vain Stakes odds, which is a good sign, and Lindsay Park knows how to accurately place their horses. Therefore, we’re backing Hard Kick to do exactly that on Saturday.
| 3. Hard Kick (5) J: Damian Lane 57kg 1×6T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | |||
| Third race start. Strong on debut as favourite; won by 2.75 len in the LR Talindert Stakes at Flemington on February 14 over 1100m defeating Zambales carrying 57kg at $3. Went for a break before returning did the work up front then tired 6th of 8 at Flemington on July 18 over 1000m, slow going 5 len behind Riverina Lulu carrying 57.5kg at $2. Plain disappointing fresh but is much better than that. | |||
Sneaking under the radar is Myhro’s Ruler, who was shinsore on debut at Caulfield, but his return to the track couldn’t have gone better.
The 3YO gelding by Wild Ruler won by six lengths at Echuca, and although he faces a field with more depth, we’re not leaving him out of our Vain Stakes predictions.
He clearly has enough ability to win at Group level, and he started as a $4.80 chance on debut at Listed level, so expectations were high. We expect a big spring from him, and his opening odds of $11 have firmed to $9, which is a good sign.
| 9. Myhro’s Ruler (8) J: Jamie Mott 56kg 6×1T: John Mcardle | |||
| Second-up. First start ran last in a small field in the LR Valley Pearl (St Albans Stakes) at this track on March 21 over 1200m, 11 len behind Rich On Bubbles with 58kg at $4.80. Went for a spell before returning favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 6 len at Echuca on July 24 over 1000m in heavy going defeating Imperial Valley with 58kg at $1.80. Dominant fresh, respecting despite a sharp jump in grade. | |||
There has been some betting support for Confederation, and we wouldn’t put it past Chris Waller to get this colt ready enough to win at this level.
The well-bred son of Wootton Bassett had mixed fortunes in his 2YO season, including a second placing on debut at Rosehill. He didn’t fire last time out, but he should have matured nicely for this season.
He remains a colt, so connections have big hopes for him, and he should get a good run in behind the speed from the inside draw. That could be the winning of the race, so he’s not being left out of Vain Stakes predictions at double-figure odds.
| 7. Confederation (1) J: Ben Melham 56kg 28xT: Chris Waller | |||
| Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign second last of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Silver Slp February 21 over 1100m, 6 len behind Stretan Ruler carrying 56.5kg at $5. On debut second in a small field at Rosehill in the G3 Canonbury January 31 over 1100m, 1.75 len behind Hidrix carrying 55kg at $3.40. Has shown good ability, wary of top yard bringing him here. | |||
Punters get lovely odds with our Vain Stakes SRM, which includes our three selected runners.
We have Hard Kick Top 3, Myhro’s Ruler Top 4, and Confederation Top 4, which pays a generous $15 at the TAB. We don’t need any of our runners to win, but as long as all three finish in the top 4, we’re happy.
It’s a good betting field for the Vain Stakes, so punters get value odds across the board. We add value to our SRM with Myhro’s Ruler and Confederation, who are paying better odds than expected.
| 3. Hard Kick (5) J: Damian Lane 57kg 1×6T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | |||
| Third race start. Strong on debut as favourite; won by 2.75 len in the LR Talindert Stakes at Flemington on February 14 over 1100m defeating Zambales carrying 57kg at $3. Went for a break before returning did the work up front then tired 6th of 8 at Flemington on July 18 over 1000m, slow going 5 len behind Riverina Lulu carrying 57.5kg at $2. Plain disappointing fresh but is much better than that. | |||
| 7. Confederation (1) J: Ben Melham 56kg 28xT: Chris Waller | |||
| Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign second last of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Silver Slp February 21 over 1100m, 6 len behind Stretan Ruler carrying 56.5kg at $5. On debut second in a small field at Rosehill in the G3 Canonbury January 31 over 1100m, 1.75 len behind Hidrix carrying 55kg at $3.40. Has shown good ability, wary of top yard bringing him here. | |||
| 9. Myhro’s Ruler (8) J: Jamie Mott 56kg 6×1T: John Mcardle | |||
| Second-up. First start ran last in a small field in the LR Valley Pearl (St Albans Stakes) at this track on March 21 over 1200m, 11 len behind Rich On Bubbles with 58kg at $4.80. Went for a spell before returning favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 6 len at Echuca on July 24 over 1000m in heavy going defeating Imperial Valley with 58kg at $1.80. Dominant fresh, respecting despite a sharp jump in grade. | |||