A small profit from our selections on Friday. Rozner won his 3-ball with ease as predicted, whilst upset prospect Alex Noren halved his group with Justin Thomas. Patrick Cantlay unfortunately went down to Nico Echavarria by a solitary stroke, with the Colombian making birdies on two of his final three holes to pip us to the post.
Two Kiwis will be around for the weekend at The 154th Open Championship. Ryan Fox carded a 2-under 68 to secure his seventh career cut at The Open, sitting 52nd at even-par. Meanwhile, Kazuma Kobori reached a significant milestone, his second-round 1-under seeing him make the cut in a major championship for the first time. He holds a share of 38th, one stroke ahead of Fox and seven back of the lead.
That lead belongs to Lucas Herbert ($11.00), who threatened to set a new benchmark for the lowest round in major championship history before ultimately matching the record with a remarkable 62. He was joined by Sam Burns ($15.00), whose own 62 propelled him from 106th into a tie for 5th in a day of extraordinary leaderboard movement at Royal Birkdale.
Heading in the opposite direction was Bryson DeChambeau ($11.00), who sat just one shot behind Herbert before being handed a controversial two-stroke penalty late on Friday evening for improving his lie on the 5th hole. Nick Faldo’s comments appeared to light a fire under DeChambeau before his opening round, so perhaps this latest off-course controversy will have a similar galvanising effect as he enters the weekend.
I am siding with the Swede in the battle of the two Alexs. As mentioned yesterday, Noren has some of the strongest links credentials in this field, having finished 23rd or better in five of his last six Open Championships.
Noren is also one of the best putters in the field, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Putting over the past 12 months. Surprisingly, he has lost more than four strokes on the greens this week, the worst putting performance of any player to make the cut. Positive regression with the putter looks likely over the weekend.
Despite that, Noren ranks first in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach, far outpacing his playing partner for ball-striking. Smalley made a superb start to the championship, but has played his last 21 holes in 5-over-par. If Noren putts anywhere near his usual standard, he looks the stronger play.
Experience matters when it comes to major championships, and Kurt Kitayama is favoured to come out on top in this group against his talented but less experienced opponent.
This marks Kitayama’s fourth consecutive made cut at The Open, while Jarvis is making his championship debut. Kitayama is also a former runner-up at the Scottish Open, thanks in no small part to his precise iron play and excellent touch around the greens.
Those strengths have been evident again this week, with Kitayama outperforming Jarvis in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Those two areas could prove decisive as Royal Birkdale continues to firm up over the weekend.
I think a potential upset is brewing in this pairing.
Canter has finished inside the top 25 in two of his last three Open Championship appearances, while Theegala broke a run of three consecutive missed cuts at The Open. Canter has also produced some excellent results in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and the Englishman is well accustomed to the demands of links golf.
Theegala has a reputation for spraying the ball off the tee, something that could be punished even more severely as Royal Birkdale continues to firm up over the weekend. I also spotted Theegala clutching his arm and wincing in pain during the practice rounds. He’s struggled around the greens all week, and with those concerns in mind, all the ingredients are there for a boilover.
There is a clear class divide between these two golfers, and one that I don’t believe has been fully reflected in the odds. Griffin is the current world No. 16, while du Plessis sits at a career-high ranking of No. 120.
Griffin has finished 14th and 17th in the last two major championships, proving he has the game to contend with the best players in the world at this level. By contrast, the South African is making just his second major championship start and has made the cut in one for the first time this week.
The biggest deciding factor for me is on and around the greens, a vital component of success on links courses. Griffin ranks 21st in this field for Strokes Gained: Putting and seventh for Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the past six months. Du Plessis, meanwhile, ranks just 130th in putting and 73rd around the greens. Those weaknesses could be exposed on Royal Birkdale’s greens, which are only getting firmer and faster over the weekend.
Alex Noren over Alex Smalley + Kurt Kitayama over Casey Jarvis + Laurie Canter over Sahith Theegala + Ben Griffin over Hennie du Plessis @ $15.04
Multi Pays $13.70