World Cup Predictions & Tips | Round of 32: Mexico v Ecuador

Match 79: Mexico v Ecuador
Location: Mexico City Stadium
Time: 1:00pm, Wednesday 1 July
Head to Head: Mexico Wins (16), Ecuador Wins (4), Draws (8)

Key Stats

• Mexico is unbeaten in its last 11 games
• Mexico has record 9 clean sheets in its last 11 games
• Ecuador have conceded a total of 7 goals in their last 16 games
• Under 2.5 goals is 13-3 in Ecuador’s last 16 games

Preview

Mexico have made full use of home ground advantage thus far. They were one of only three teams to will all their group games (France and Argentina) with the 3-0 win over Czechia coming despite resting several key players. It extended Mexico’s unbeaten run to 11 games with an incredible 9 clean sheets in that stretch. Perhaps the most impressive part about their recent run is that five of those clean sheets were against teams that qualified for the knockout stages of this tournament (Portugal, Ghana, Australia, South Africa and South Korea).

Defence has also been at the forefront of Ecuador’s success with a total of only 7 goals conceded across their last 16 games. Like Mexico, it includes clean sheets against some of the top ranked nations in the world (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Canada and New Zealand). Moreover, it has been more than two years since they conceded multiple goals in a game (26 matches in total). As you could expect, Under 2.5 goals is 13-3 in their last 16 matches and 8-3 in Mexico’s last 11.

There could be more to Mexico’s home ground advantage than the 80,000 fans that will pack the stadium. All three of their group games have been played in Mexico while Ecuador have played exclusively in the USA so far. They took on the Ivory Coast in Philadelphia, battles Curacao in Kansas City and ended the group phase by playing Germany in New York. These locations are not more than 200m above sea level and they must now travel to Mexico City which is more than 2,200m above sea level. Acclimatisation could be an issue for Ecuador and we could see them struggle physically in the tail end of the second half. Goals will be hard to come by and it is hard to see Ecuador holding out a Mexican team that has scored at least once in 7 straight games.

Player To Watch
Football fans can be guilty of giving all the credit to the player who scored the goal and forgetting the person responsible for creating the opportunities. Roberto Alvarado has worked tirelessly for Mexico and has been the most creative player in their team. He has created 6 shots for his teammates which equates to 21% of the shots they have created as a team. Has record two assists on the back of that and is certain to continue that style of play against Ecuador.

Betting Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.42)
Other: Under 1.5 goals ($2.30)
Correct Score: Mexico 1-0 ($5.50)
SGM: 1st Half Result – Draw, 2nd Half Under 1.5 goals, Mexico Double Chance ($3.13)