Super Rugby Pacific Semi Finals | Tips & Preview

The Chiefs were made to work hard in their qualifying finals match-up against the Reds, but they ended up running away with a comfortable victory. The 46-24 scoreline doesn’t reflect how tight this contest was, especially in the first half, but inspired performances from Damian McKenzie and Cortez Ratima in particular helped Jono Gibbes’s team over the line. It was Ratima who helped energise the hosts in the early going, with a couple of line breaks helping get the Chiefs deep into Reds territory and setting up the opening try through Kyren Taumoefolau. McKenzie then came to life in the second half, jolting his team into action as he capitalised on a lazy Reds defence to score off a quick tap, before zipping through Queensland’s defence 20 minutes later to all but seal the victory. Up front, there were also some standouts in the form of Samisoni Taukei’aho, who was tireless in his 60 minutes of action and dotted down for his 11th try of the season while leading the team with 17 carries. Tupou Vaa’i was also a workhorse defensively, as was Quinn Tupaea, who helped keep the Reds’ back line quiet. Isaac Hutchinson did his job well at fullback and was rewarded with an excellent try in the death and Taumoefolau had his moments on the wing, as the Chiefs continued their impressive attacking form, now averaging 42 points across their last six games.

Speaking of continuing their hot run of form, the Crusaders extended their win streak to four games and continued their unbeaten run of form at One NZ Stadium with a 52-31 thumping of the Blues on Saturday. It was another tidy and composed showing from Rob Penney’s team at Christchurch’s new stadium, shaking off a slow start to score three tries in the space of eight minutes late in the first half to turn a 14-14 score line into a commanding 33-14 halftime lead. The Crusaders controlled the game from there, as Johnny McNicholl completed his hat-trick just after the hour mark to make it 47-21 and put the result beyond any doubt. It was an excellent attacking display from the Crusaders, who were always able to provide answers to whatever the Blues threw at them on attack or on defence, and David Havili was the standout in this contest. The veteran midfielder showed his class whenever he touched the ball with his strong carries, his accurate passes, and his swift decision-making helping establish the Crusaders’ lead as the game went on. He finished the game with one try, one try assists, two line breaks, four defenders beaten, 16 tackles and one turnover win to anchor the back line and help McNicholl to his hat-trick, while Sevu Reece and Chay Fihaki had some good touches out wide. An elite performance from Christian Lio-Willie at No.8 also gave the Crusaders a big boost, as he provided a couple of try assists and 15 tackles, while his loosies partners also got stuck in, with Leicester Fainga’anuku (14 carries, 19 tackles) and Ethan Blackadder (24 tackles) getting through plenty of work.

The Chiefs have named a relatively stable 23, with Samipeni Finau starting for Wallace Sititi (concussion) and Lalakai Foketi starts in place of Kyle Brown (concussion). Xavier Roe returns from injury off the bench and, for the Crusaders, Fletcher Newell also makes his return to start at tighthead. Braydon Ennor starts at centre for the injured Dallas McLeod (groin), seeing Macca Springer come onto the bench, forming what will be a very competitive 23. The big challenge for the Crusaders lies in the fact that this will be their first game on the road in over a month, but their form certainly indicates that they can produce an upset in Hamilton. They beat the Chiefs 36-32 in a thriller three weeks ago, coming back from 24-32 down, and as underdogs on Friday night, I like the Crusaders here.

Best
Crusaders +4.5 ($1.95)

Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.70)

Try Scorer
Sevu Reece ($11 First, $2.02 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Sevu Reece Try / Codie Taylor Try / Damian McKenzie Try ($19.62)

The Hurricanes continued their dominant run of form in 2026, recording a record-breaking 66-12 demolition of the Brumbies. It was the most points ever scored by one team in a Super Rugby finals game and the Hurricanes were all class, shrugging off the wet, windy and cold Wellington conditions to put on an attacking clinic. It was another Ruben Love masterclass, with the 25-year-old continuing to put his hand up for the All Blacks’ #10 jersey, as he led his team to a nine-try effort, while going 10/10 from the tee in very difficult kicking conditions. The Canes ended up recording 14 entries into the Brumbies’ 22 and were often ruthless when they were down that end of the ground, with the locking duo of Warner Dearns and Caleb Delany proving to be very tough to contain in a standout night from the forward pack. They helped the Hurricanes notch up 58% possession and dominate at set piece, with Dearns pulling off a few trademark lineout steals, while also defending sternly. Ngane Punivai recorded a hat-trick off the bench, capitalising on a couple of Brumbies mistakes, Cam Roigard scored a double, one through his support play and another through his carrying power from close range, and Dearns also recorded a brace in a memorable night for Clark Laidlaw’s men.

The Blues will feel lucky to still be alive this season after being thumped 32-51 against the Crusaders in last week’s Qualifying Finals. As the top-ranked loser from the first round, they have been thrown a lifeline but they will really need to clean up their act if they are any chance of toppling the Hurricanes on the road. Vern Cotter’s side have lost their last four games — all by a double-digit margin and by an average of 21.2 points — and although it has been a tough schedule, with two games against the Crusaders, plus matches against the Chiefs and Canes, it’s made it clear that the Auckanders are clearly not in the echelon of the competition’s best. The Blues enjoyed 58% possession on Saturday, including 11 entries into the Crusaders’ 22, but it wasn’t their attack that was the issue, scoring five tries across the 80 minutes. The Blues’ dreadful 80% tackle completion percentage is what let them down, missing a total of 33 tackles as the likes of David Havili and Johnny McNicholl ran riot. Anton Segner was determined in response and was again the best player on the park for the visitors, but a sloppy lineout and a sluggishness at ruck time really hurt the Blues’ pack. Torian Barnes had his moments and Eli Oudenryn had another impactful spell of the bench, while AJ Lam looked the most dangerous out of what was a timid back line.

The Hurricanes have the benefit of having named a near-identical 23 this week, with the returns from injury from both Fehi Fineanganofo and Siale Lauaki being the only additions. That sees Pouri Rakete-Stones and Punivai drop out of the team, while Kini Naholo goes to the bench, while the Blues have named four new faces in their XV. Beauden Barrett returns from injury to start at fullback, while Finlay Christie and Hoskins Sotutu start for the absents Sam Nock (hand) and Malachi Wrampling (suspension). Although some All Black firepower returns for the visitors, I don’t expect that to change the outcome of the game. The Hurricanes have wins of 47-24 and 42-19 over the Blues this season and their form indicates that there will be no slowing down in the semis. Their attack in particular has been show-stopping, but their elite defence has somewhat slipped under the radar this season and they are going to make life very hard for the visitors at both ends of the park, making for another Hurricanes blowout.

Best
Hurricanes -16.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Fehi Fineanganofo OR Josh Moorby 1st Try Scorer & Hurricanes Win by 11 – 30 ($9.00)

Try Scorer
Josh Moorby ($9.50 First, $1.75 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Josh Moorby Try / Cam Roigard Try / Finlay Christie Try ($13.20)