Super Rugby Pacific Qualifying Finals | Tips & Preview

The Hurricanes deservedly finished on top of the Super Rugby ladder in 2026, with their 11-3 record getting them there. They were comfortably the best attacking team in the competition and they also finished with the best defensive record, and that was despite Clark Laidlaw electing to rest a lot of his first-string players in the final round of the regular season, resulting in a 14-47 thumping last week. Ruben Love, Jordie Barrett, Peter Lakai, Asafo Aumua and Warner Dearns were just some of the players that Laidlaw held out of the 23 last week, and the inexperienced second-string side could not match the Crusaders’ intensity and precision at their new stadium. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, they will be welcoming back almost all of their first-choice players for the qualifying finals. All of the aforementioned players are back in the starting lineup, while Kini Naholo retains his spot on the wing, forming a lethal starting XV for the first seeds. Fehi Fineanganofo and Devan Flanders remain out with injuries, but this is otherwise as good as the hosts could get, and after topping the competition with 86 tries this season, as well as leading the way in line breaks and defenders beaten, the Hurricanes will be taking full confidence into the postseason.

Like the Hurricanes, the Brumbies will enter the finals coming off a loss, but theirs came in much more disappointing fashion, falling to Moana Pasifika at home last week. Coming off back-to-back wins against the Force and the Waratahs, the Brumbies headed into Saturday’s game as 23.5-point favourites against Moana, but they fell away as the game went on to lose 19-21 and fall down to a sixth-place finish in the process. Unlike the Canes, this was a good 23 that Stephen Larkham rolled out at GIO Stadium, with the likes of Rob Valetini, Ryan Lonergan and Corey Toole all featuring, as well as getting star No.8 Charlie Cale back from injury. It was a strong start from the ACT, with Rory Scott and Tom Wright scoring in the opening 20 minutes for a 14-0 lead, but a yellow card to James Slipper shortly after opened the door for Moana Pasifika. 15 minutes later the visitors had tied the scores but the Brumbies hit the front after another Luke Reimer try in the corner and looked to essentially seal the win shortly after as Faletoi Peni was red-carded and then scored a try that was overruled by the TMO. From there it was all Moana, who scored a converted try to take the lead and win the game, making it four losses from the Brumbies’ last six games. Just 4-7 in their last 11 games, it’s hardly been a good season from the Australian powerhouses, and they are clearly a cut below the top four.

These teams met during Super Round just over one month ago, with the Hurricanes winning 45-12, but I am picking a tighter game on Friday night. Wet conditions are forecast in the capital and the Brumbies will look to slow things right down at any given opportunity, with the kicking games of Lonergan, Declan Meredith and Tom Wright all coming into play. Of course, the table-topping Canes will still let loose on the odd occasion and they will come out on top, but the 17.5-point line is too big for what may be a grind of a game.

Best
Brumbies +17.5 ($1.90)

Value
Hurricanes 1-12 ($3.60)

Try Scorer
Cam Roigard ($11 First, $2.10 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Cam Roigard Try / Peter Lakai Try / Lachlan Lonergan Try ($27.68)

The Crusaders were able to leapfrog the Blues into a third-place finish with a 47-14 demolition of the Hurricanes last weekend. While that sounds mightily impressive on paper, the Hurricanes brought a second-string squad down to Christchurch, but the hosts made no mistake in cleaning them up in a seven-tries-to-two victory. That, in tandem with the Blues’ loss to the Chiefs, meant that the Crusaders locked in a home qualifying final this weekend and that could prove to be a huge outcome, given how good Rob Penney’s men have looked at One NZ Stadium. Since the opening of the new ground in Super Round, the Crusaders have won all four of their games there, including a 36-20 victory over the Blues just four weeks ago, with sold-out crowds giving the defending champions a real boost. That rise in form has also come as Leicester Fainga’anuku has thrived in his positional switch from the back line to openside flanker, with his ball-running, breakdown work and defensive energy really making an impact for Penney’s team, and after resting last week, we can expect another big showing from the All Black.

The Blues will be bitterly disappointed in how their season drew to a close as they were crushed by the Chiefs 34-59 in Hamilton last weekend. However, it’s not only that result that will leave them with plenty of concerns heading into the qualifying round, given that their two games prior were also double-digit defeats, the first being a 20-36 loss to the Crusaders before being embarrassed by the Hurricanes at home in a 24-47 loss. That saw them drop from second place in the standings at the end of Round 12 down to a fourth-place finish and, with that, a qualifying final on the road at a stadium that has proven to be very tough to win at in its infancy. It’s been their defence that has hurt them the most, with some big totals conceded late in the season, while injuries to the likes of Dalton Papali’i, Beauden Barrett, Patrick Tuipulotu and Josh Beehre late in the season have done them no favours.

Papali’i and Barrett remain out on for Saturday’s game and that puts the Blues even more on the back foot while the Crusaders copped a couple of injury blows last week, losing Fletcher Newell and Seb Calder. However, the hosts have been a completely new team at One NZ Stadium, with an average margin of victory of 17 points, and they will again be too strong on Saturday. The Blues’ defensive struggles of late is my main concern for them, and their backs really lack the star power to keep the attack rolling, meaning this game is the Crusaders’ to lose.

Best
Crusaders -8.5 ($1.85)

Value
Power Plays — Crusaders to Win By 11 – 15 (refund if Crusaders win by 6 – 10 or 16 – 20) ($4.00)

Try Scorer
Codie Taylor ($12 First, $2.10 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Codie Taylor Try / Noah Hotham Try / Dallas McLeod Try ($19.57)

The Chiefs finished their regular season with an almighty bang, tearing apart the Blues in a 59-34 win. With a second-place finish already locked in for the Chiefs, Jono Gibbes decided to rest some key players, including Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tupou Vaa’i, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea, but you would never have guessed that they were without some of their big names. It took awhile for the hosts to get going, giving up a 0-10 lead to the Blues inside the opening 25 minutes, but Kyren Taumoefolau finally got the breakthrough for the Chiefs and by halftime, Gibbes’ men had a 19-15 men before they really put their feet down in the second half. Five tries in the space of 20 minutes turned a 26-20 lead into a 52-20 buffer, as the hosts ran riot to close out the game in seriously impressive fashion. That was a welcome return to winning ways after their loss in Christchurch the week prior, making it eight wins from their last nine games of the season to put them in very strong form heading into the pointy end of the season. The Chiefs have really found their attacking stride late in the season, scoring 30+ points in each of their last five games, averaging 41.7 points, and are looking every bit like contenders.

The Reds couldn’t capitalise on their hot start to the season, with their 4-1 start ending up in an 8-6 record. That was good enough for fifth in the standings and they have a bit of momentum behind them following a pair of wins to round out their regular season. They were really made to sweat against Moana Pasifika a fortnight ago, sneaking home with a two-point win on the road, before a much more convincing 45-24 triumph over the Fijian Drua. That was perhaps their best attacking game of the season, running in seven tries and often taking their chances well, but there remained some glaring weaknesses, with their lineout again looking very shaky and their general play often being rather disjointed.

The Reds simply don’t look like a team that is close to contending with the competition’s best, and we are going to see that become evident on Saturday. This is a very strong team named by Gibbes, with Damian McKenzie and Leroy Carter returning from injury, and I have this as the most lop-sided of the QFs. Queensland are the definition of a solid team, but they lack the class and the polish to get close to the Chiefs.

Best
Chiefs -15.5 ($1.90)

Value
Chiefs 21-30 ($4.00)

Try Scorer
Liam Coombes Fabling ($11 First, $2.02 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Liam Coombes Fabling Try / Wallace Sititi Try / Jock Campbell Try ($20.01)