NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 16

Gerard Sutton

• Newcastle are 7-10 with an 8-9 cover record
• St George Illawarra are 4-9 with a 6-7 cover record
• The under is 12-5 in Newcastle games
• The under is 6-1 in his last seven games

Gerard Sutton has been a major under ref of late – none of his last four games have gone north of 38 while six of his last seven have gone under. The under also has a great record when Newcastle play under his whistle.

Ref Lean: Under 49.5 @ $1.90

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski

• The Tigers are 2-6 with a 4-4 cover record
• The Dolphins have not played under this official
• The under hits in 63% of all matches
• The under hits at 68% with a home underdog

In his fledgling NRL career, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has been one of the strongest under officials and that increases when there is a home underdog.

Ref Lean: Under 52.5 @ $1.90

Peter Gough

• The Titans are 6-8 with a 9-5 cover record
• The Panthers are 12-2 with an 8-6 cover record
• Home underdogs cover at 64%
• The under has hit in 10 straight Gough games

Peter Gough has missed the last two weeks of action but his under streak is nothing short of remarkable at 10. Home underdogs also do very well when he is in the middle making the Titans a confident play.

Ref Lean: Gold Coast +12.5 @ $1.90 & Under 49.5 @ $1.90

Adam Gee

• The Bulldogs are 7-6 with a 6-7 cover record
• Manly are 12-10 with a 10-12 cover record
• The under is 14-8 in Manly games
• The under is 10-3 in 2026
• The under hits at 55%when there is a favourite of 4 or more

Adam Gee has been a major under official this year and this is a big spot for the under with Manly having a strong under record when he officiates and the under hitting when there is a sizable favourite.

Ref Lean: Under 49.5 @ $1.96

Grant Atkins

• New Zealand are 5-5 with a 5-5 cover record
• North Queensland are 6-5 with a 5-6 cover record
• The over is 7-4 in North Queensland games
• The over has hit in seven of the last 11 Atkins games
• The over hits at 56% when a 6.5+ favourite
• The over hits at 57% when a Top 8 team plays a team outside the Top 8

Grant Atkins is a big over official who has certainly skewed over of late and when strong teams play weaker teams. The over has a strong record when the Cowboys play under his whistle.

Ref Lean: Over 50.5 @ $1.85

Todd Smith

• Melbourne are 9-4 with an 8-5 cover record
• Canberra are 6-9 with a 6-9 cover record
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games
• Day games go over at 54%

Todd Smith is a leading over official and day games go over at a big enough clip to bet blindly.

Ref Lean: Over 50.5 @ $1.90

Ashley Klein

• The Roosters are 13-14 with a 12-15 cover record
• The Sharks are 11-12 with a 12-11 cover record
• Favourites have covered 10 of the last 11 Klein games
• The under is 16-7 in Sharks games

There are no strong angles this week under Ashley Klein though the Sharks do have an excellent under record when he is in the middle.

Ref Lean: No Bet