Oklahoma City were silenced in Game 4, being held to just 82 points on a terrible 82.0 offensive rating to lose 82-103. With the series now tied 2-2, Game 5 now feels like a must-win for the defending champions at home, with the absence of Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell really hurting them on Monday. Mitch Johnson wisely decided to stop aggressively double-teaming Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the MVP couldn’t capitalise against the likes of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. He finished with just 19 points on 52.5% TS%, along with seven assists, two steals and four turnovers, while the rest of the squad failed to generate offence of their own. The bench heroes from Game 3, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Jaylin Williams, combined for just eight points this time around and Chet Holmgren again looked shaky defensively, with just 10 points, nine rebounds, one block and three turnovers. Of course, there was some bad shooting luck that went into this stinker of an offensive game from the visitors, with an abysmal 33.1% eFG%, including going 6/33 from deep, but the fact that they were forced into 29 midrange FGAs and 17 turnovers mean that this wasn’t simply an unfortunate shooting performance.
After rather flat performances in Games 2 and 3, Victor Wembanyama came to play in Game 4. His impact on both ends was huge in this fight, finishing up with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, two steals and three blocks to be a +29 in 31 minutes. His buzzer-beating half-court three to end the first half made for another highlight play from Wemby’s postseason and ended up being important in giving SA a double-digit buffer heading into the break, and there was no looking back from there. Castle was also highly impressive in this game, with his defence on OKC’s perimeter players causing real headaches, and although he finished with just 13 points, his impact was immense. De’Aaron Fox (12 points, 10 rebounds, five assists), Devin Vassell (13 points, six rebounds) and Dylan Harper (seven points) also had relatively humble stat lines but their impact on the game was unmissable, providing timely plays on both ends to keep San Antonio in control. That culminated in an amazing defensive performance from the hosts, as they barely gave up an easy look at the rim and forced Oklahoma City into a lot of tough looks to tie the series up.
With Williams and Mitchell both likely still out for Game 5, OKC are at a real disadvantage and San Antonio. I have low hopes for how the defending champions are going to generate their offence now that SA have eased off the double-teaming of Gilgeous-Alexander, and even as the series heads back to Paycom Center, I have San Antonio in the box seat. At 5.5-point underdogs, I really fancy SA here.