US Basketball Tips & Preview | Monday 25 May

US Basketball Tips & Preview | Monday 25 May

San Antonio
vs
Oklahoma City
Monday, 12:10pm
San Antonio -2.5 ($1.90)

San Antonio were suffocated by Oklahoma City in Game 3, seeing them fall to a 108-123 defeat. With the series at 1-1 heading to Frost Bank Center, San Antonio had the advantage early on in this conference finals matchup and it looked like they were on their way to another victory in the opening minutes of Game 3, racing out to a 15-0 lead less than three minutes into the contest. However, the hot run soon came to an end, with the lead being reduced to just five points by quarter time and the momentum had well and truly shifted by the second quarter, as San Antonio’s offence froze to be trailing 51-58 at halftime. SA never found the juice to get back in front in the second half, as they were dominated any time Victor Wembanyama sat on the bench. San Antonio were +4 in 39 minutes with Wemby on the floor and -19 in his nine minutes on the bench, as they particularly struggled on the defensive end in his absence. Wembanyama finished with 26 points, four rebounds, three assists and two blocks, but was forced to settle for a lot of outside looks again as OKC bodied him up, while De’Aaron Fox made a nice return from injury, with 15 points, seven rebounds and six assists before potentially reaggravating his ankle injury, as Lu Dort crashed into Fox’s leg as he dove for a loose ball. Devin Vassell had some more big plays with 20 points and four steals but Stephon Castle struggled again offensively, this time on the shooting front, going 1/8 from the field and 11/14 from the free throw line for 14 points, seven assists and two blocks. Dylan Harper looked a step slow after his injury scare in Game 2, with just six points, and SA are going to need his slashing ability in this series if they’re to get back into the box seat.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked every bit like the MVP in this Game 3 triumph, starting the night by embracing his playmaking duties, before scoring 12 points in the third quarter on his way to 26 points, 12 assists and just two turnovers. Despite getting constantly double-teamed, SGA was often able to find the open man and ended up generating 58 points with his offensive play. He was not the only star, with Oklahoma City’s bench having a stellar night, led by Jared McCain’s 24 points in 27 minutes. The young guard showed off his inside game in this one, while Jaylin Williams was on fire from deep, going 5/6 from range for 18 points. Alex Caruso got OKC back into the game after their disastrous 0-15 start, ending with 15 points and two steals and Cason Wallace did a bit of everything with 11 points, five rebounds, four assists and three steals. After a standout Game 2, Isaiah Hartenstein was less impactful on Saturday and Chet Holmgren was kept relatively quiet, but OKC were happy to inflict pain from the perimeter, that way reducing Wemby’s interior impact and finding their way to a stellar 125.5 offensive rating.

A calf injury to Ajay Mitchell dished the defending champions another blow, and he’s already been ruled out of Game 4, but he has been effectively a non-factor this series thanks to SA’s rim protection. I will also be surprised if Jalen Williams (hamstring, questionable) suits up, and that is a lot of ball handling and scoring removed from the defending champions. I expect Mitch Johnson to reapproach his gameplan of double-teaming SGA and that will make for less wide open shots for OKC’s supporting cast and, with that, a worse offensive showing from the visitors. Wemby also has to be more aggressive going forward, and he will know that, to help San Antonio pick up a much-needed Game 4 win. I still have him as the best player in this series and with Fox and Harper set to provide more as they regain their health, I have SA winning Game 4.