If you’re not factoring in the referee, you’re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 12.
Todd Smith
- Canberra are 6-8 with a 6-8 cover record
- Dolphins are 7-3 with an 8-2 cover record
- Faves cover at just 46%
- The over hits at 55% in all Smith games
The Dolphins have an outstanding record under Todd Smith while outsiders have a strong enough winning edge to make the Phins a play this week.
Ref Lean: Dolphins +3.5 (Large) @ $1.94
Wyatt Raymond
- Canterbury are 4-3 with a 4-3 cover record
- Melbourne are 3-1 with a 2-2 cover record
- The under is 6-1 in Canterbury games
- The under has hit in four straight Raymond games
The under has hit in four straight Wyatt Raymond games while the Bulldogs have nearly a perfect under record under his stewardship.
Ref Lean: Under 47.5 (Small) @ $1.90
Adam Gee
- St George Illawarra are 3-12 with a 6-9 cover record
- New Zealand are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record
- The over is 9-6 in Dragons games
- The under is 8-3 under Gee in 2026
Adam Gee is a big under official this year while the Dragons have been a strong over team so nothing to look at in this one.
Ref Lean: No lean
Gerard Sutton
- Manly are 11-9 with a 12-8 cover record
- Gold Coast are 1-6 with a 1-6 cover record
- Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%
- Teams 13th or worse cover at 33%
Gerard Sutton is one of the biggest favourite referees in the NRL while bottom wrung teams rarely perform to market expectations on his watch, making Manly a must-bet this week.
Ref Lean: Manly -12.5 (Large) @ $1.90
Grant Atkins
- North Qld are 5-5 with a 4-6 cover record
- Souths are 6-12 with a 6-12 cover record
- The over is 7-3 when North Qld play under Atkins
- The over has hit in six of the last seven Atkins games
The over has been in hot form under Atkins whistle, who has no qualms in driving a team with no momentum into the ground, while the over has been reliable when the Cowboys play under his whistle.
Ref Lean: Over 52.5 (Large) @ $1.90