NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 10

Grant Atkins 

• The Dolphins are 5-6 with a 6-5 cover record 
• The Bulldogs are 6-7 with a 5-8 cover record 
• Home teams cover 57% 
• The under 9-4 in Bulldogs games 
• The over has hit in four of the last five Atkins games 

There is nothing significant from an officiating point of view to recommend a play in the opener of Round 10.  

Ref Lean: No Lean 

Peter Gough 

• The Roosters are 2-3 with a 2-3 cover record 
• The Titans are 6-7 with an 8-5 cover record 
• Favourites cover 42% 
• Interstate teams cover 45% 
• The over is 8-5 in Titans games 
• The under has hit in seven straight games  

Both interstate teams and favourites have an ordinary record under Gough so no lean the team but given the unders run he is on the under needs to be a play.  

Ref Lean: Under 55.5 (Small) @ $1.90

Liam Kennedy 

• The Cowboys are 3-5 with a 6-2 cover record 
• The Eels are 6-4 with a 4-6 cover record 
• Favourites off a win cover at 42% 
• The under is 6-2 in Cowboys games 

Liam Kennedy has no strong leans. The Cowboys have a strong record on his watch but that is usually as an underdog with favourites off  win having a poor cover record.  

Ref Lean: No Lean 

Todd Smith 

• The Dragons are 2-8 with a 4-6 cover record 
• The Knights are 1-6 with a 1-6 cover record 
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 41% 
• Road faves of 8+ cover at 41% 
• The over is 5-2 in Knights games 
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games 

The Knights have a diabolical record under Todd Smith while big road favourites are awful plays, putting the Dragons in play here as a referee bet. Smith is the leading over referee in the NRL.

Ref Lean: St George Illawarra +9.5 (Small) @ $1.90, Over 52.5 (Small) @ $1.83

Jarrod Cole 

• This is the first game both Souths and Cronulla have played under Cole 
• Favourites 3-0 against the spread 
• Favourites have won all three games by 14+ points 
• The under is 2-1 

This is just the fourth NRL game for Jarrod Cole so data is extremely limited but he has shown himself to be a big favourites official making the Rabbitohs a play in this one.  

Ref Lean: South Sydney -1.5 (Small) @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton 

• Manly are 10-9 with an 11-8 cover record 
• Brisbane are 13-5 with a 12-6 cover record 
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% 
• The over is 12-7 in Manly games 
• The over is 13-5 in Brisbane games 

The Broncos absolutely love playing under Gerard Sutton while both teams are in huge over spots when Sutton is in the middle.  

Ref Lean: Brisbane +4.5 (Small) @ $1.73, Over 50.5 (Large) @ $1.83

Adam Gee 

• The Storm are 11-9 with an 8-12 cover record 
• The Tigers are 5-6 with a 7-4 cover record 
• Teams off conceding 50+ cover at 80% 
• Interstate underdogs of 4 or more cover at 42% 
• The under is 7-2 in 2026 

The Wests Tigers have a nice cover record under Adam Gee and teams off being embarrassed tend to do well under his officiating.  

Ref Lean: Wests Tigers +6.5 (Small) @ $1.80

Ashley Klein 

• Canberra are 9-6 with a 10-5 cover record 
• Penrith are 20-6 with a 16-10 cover record 
• Penrith are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 
• Favourites have covered 7 of Klein’s last 8 games 
• Home teams cover at 55% 

Both teams have an excellent record under Ashley Klein so cannot put up an official lean in this one.  

Ref Lean: No Lean