NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Magic Round

Gerard Sutton 

• Cronulla are 11-8 with a 10-9 against the spread record 
• Canterbury are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record 
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% 
• Teams 13th or worse cover at 33% 

Gerard Sutton is one of the biggest favourite referees in the NRL while bottom wrung teams rarely perform to market expectations on his watch.  

Ref Lean: Cronulla -4.5 (Large) @ $1.85 

Adam Gee 

• Souths are 8-6 with a 9-4 cover record 
• The Dolphins are 4-9 with a 7-6 cover record 
• The under is 10-4 when Souths play 
• The under is 9-4 when the Dolphins play 
• The under is 7-3 under Gee in 2026 

The under has a huge advantage when both of these teams play under Adam Gee while Gee has been one of the biggest under officials in 2026.  

Ref Lean: Under 54.5 (Large) @ $1.88 

Grant Atkins 

• The Tigers are 5-6 with a 7-4 cover record 
• Manly are 11-8 with a 12-7 cover record 
• The over is 15-4 in Manly games under Atkins 
• The over has hit in five of the last six Atkins games 
• The over hits at 60% when there is a favourite of 8 or more 

Manly have an obscene over record under Grant Atkins while the over has been in hot form under his whistle. When there is a big favourite the over has a strong record under Atkins.  

Ref Lean: Over 53.5 (Large) @ $1.90 

Todd Smith 

• The Roosters are 8-5 with an 8-5 cover record 
• North Qld are 6-7 with a 9-4 cover record 
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 41% 
• The over is 8-5 in Roosters games 
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Todd Smith has a small lean as an over official and the Roosters have a slight over edge when he is in the middle.  

Ref Lean: Over 56.5 (Small) @ $1.83 

Peter Gough 

• Parramatta are 7-8 with a 7-8 cover record 
• Melbourne are 8-3 with a 4-7 cover record 
• Favourites cover 42% 
• The under has hit in eight straight games 

Peter Gough has seen his game go under in eight straight so the under has to be a play while the Storm have a dire record on his watch so the Eels are worth a small bet.  

Ref Lean:  Parramatta +7.5 (Small) @ $1.98, Under 53.5 (Small) @ $1.98 

Wyatt Raymond 

• Gold Coast are 2-4 with a 3-3 cover record 
• Newcastle are 1-5 with a 1-5 cover record 
• Underdogs have covered three straight 
• The over is 5-1 in Newcastle games 
• The under has hit in four of the last five 

The Knights have really struggled against market expectations under Wyatt Raymond while underdogs have been running hot.  

Ref Lean: Gold Coast +9.5 (Small) @ $1.96 

Ashley Klein 

• The Warriors are 2-5 with a 3-4 cover record
• The Broncos are 9-8 with an 11-6 cover record 
• Favourites have covered eight of the last nine Klein games 
• Home teams cover 54% 

Favourites are on an incredible run under Ashley Klein, making the Warriors worthy of an interest in this one.  

Ref Lean: New Zealand -2.5 (Small) @ $1.83 

Liam Kennedy 

• Penrith are 2-1 with a 0-3 cover record 
• The Dragons are 3-3 with a 4-2 cover record 
• Favourites off a win cover at 42% 
• Favourites of 12.5 or more cover at 64% 

Penrith have a poor cover record under Liam Kennedy but big favourites of 12.5 or more cover at 64% making this a no lean affair.  

Ref Lean: No Lean