With the bulk of the big names making it through, we have some intriguing 3rd Round matchups on Day 7 including the young pair of Jovic and Mboko taking on Grand Slam champions in their respective matches. Despite their inexperience, both are in better form than their opposition and should be the ones to make it through to the next round. Last year’s finalists (Sabalenka and Gauff) are heavily favoured to progress.
The world number one was below her best for a second consecutive match dropping serve multiple times and making 31 unforced errors. No need to worry as she has cleared the cobwebs and meets a very familiar opponent that she has dominated in the past. Sabalenka holds a 7-2 edge in the H2H against Kasatkina which includes four straight set wins in their last four battles. Kasatkina has won no more than 5 games in the last three clashes with Sabalenka winning their prior meeting at the French Open 7-6 6-0. That came back in 2020 before Sabalenka developed into the best player in the world. She will be back to her dominating best in this contest.
Best Bet: Sabalenka -6.5
Not only did Jovic avenge her loss to Navarro in Strasbourg last week, but she did it in style 6-0 6-3! Osaka had a much tougher time in a 7-6 6-4 battle against Vekic and has now accumulated 6 breaks of serve in four very long sets. In comparison, Jovic has 11 breaks in significantly less games played and against tougher opposition. Jovic plays beyond her years and will be climbing into the top 10 sooner rather than later. She should be a clear favourite in his match and will get the better of Osaka in the baseline exchanges.
Best Bet: Jovic WIN ($1.98)
Madison Keys may be the major champion in this matchup but Mboko is the player who brings form and upside into the contest. The pair faced off at the Adelaide International earlier this year with Mboko winning in three sets. She was a relative unknown at that point and her game has improved significantly since. In contrast, the form of Keys has dropped off and you get the sense that she is content after breaking through to win her maiden major. Mboko brings hunger and serious power to this battle and this one will not be close.
Best Bet: Mboko -2.5
Apart from a slow start in the opening set against Townsend, the defending champion has been in cruise control. She will need to go up a few gears here as Potapova has caused her trouble in the past. Of the three completed matches between them, Potapova has won two including a comfortable 6-2 6-3 win in their most recent clash. That battle in Stuttgart is also the most relevant as it is the only other time that they faced off on clay. Potapova made the semis in Madrid and the 4th Round as a qualifier in Rome. She is a very dangerous opponent and Gauff will need to do more than defend well. This one will go the distance.
Best Bet: Over 20.5 games
Sabalenka v Kasatkina: Sabalenka -6.5
Jovic v Osaka: Jovic WIN ($1.98)
Mboko v Keys: Mboko -2.5
Shnaider v Oliynykova: Oliynykova +1.5 Sets ($1.92)
Gauff v Potapova: Over 20.5 games
Kalinskaya v Osorio: Osorio WIN ($1.96)
Sakkari v Chwalinska: Chwalinska WIN
Parry v Anisimova: Anisimova -1.5 Sets ($1.58)