The top half of the men’s draw is turning into a survival of the fittest with 5 of the 8 third round matches going to a deciding fifth set. Tiafoe came from two sets down but his four-hour match was trumped by two others with Arnaldi needing 5 hours to get past Collignon and the battle between J.M Cerundolo and Landaluce stopping the clock at 6 hours and 3 minutes!
Auger-Aliassime made it through in four tight sets against Nakashima and is yet to dominate a match in Paris. His wins have been a genuine grind and that opens the door for an accomplished clay court player like Tabilo to cause an upset. The Chilean has the benefit of being a lefty and it is worth mentioning that he has previously beaten Novak Djokovic on clay – twice! Have previously made note of FAA’s recent losses to the likes of Kovacevic and Navone which makes Tabilo a great bet at this price. Taking him to win at least one set and the match.
Best Bet: Tabilo To Win A Set – YES ($1.73)
Value: Tabilo WIN ($2.45)
Cobolli used being fresh to his advantage against Tien. Yet to drop a set, the Italian blew past the American and now faces a player in a similar predicament. Tien was coming off a long five set match and struggled to get going. Svajda is in an identical situation with an added mental load after having won the two sets before losing the next two. Deserves a heap of credit for finding a way to climb of the canvas and win but we are in Cobolli’s corner here. Cobolli won their only prior meeting which came on a hard court in Delray Beach. Svajda was able to win only 47% of 2nd serve points on a hard court so I do not like his chances on a slower surface.
Best Bet: Cobolli -6.5 ($1.70)
Playing out long and very tight sets has been the theme for both men throughout the tournament. Arnaldi has played 13 sets to date with seven of them having 12+ games while the American has already played 6 tiebreakers. This is something we usually see at Wimbledon with the first meetings between these two ironically taking place at SW19 two years ago. Arnaldi won the first two sets off that match before Tiafoe came back to win in five! More notably, they locked horns again in Madrid last year with Arnaldi winning in straight sets on clay. The Italian won almost 6-% of 2nd serve points while Tiafoe was below 50% in that department. It is a key figure on clay and one we will be relying on here. Arnaldi is the play.
Best Bet: Arnaldi WIN ($2.05)
No player has benefited more from the hot weather in Paris than Berrettini. This is the first time since 2021 that he is even playing the French Open and injury has left him as an afterthought for the last three years. The conditions will be colder today but he has spent significantly less time on court than his opponent. Juan-Manuel will forever be remembered as the player who ended Sinner’s win streak and he can almost be forgiven if he is below his best here as he just spent 6+ hours battling Landaluce. That match included 4 tiebreakers and with the Italian’s previous match having three breakers of its own, breaks of serve will be limited in this match. The Overs looks very enticing.
Best Bet: Over 38.5 games ($1.80)