The tournament was dealt a massive blow with world number 1 and overwhelming favourite Jannik Sinner going down in five set. He led two sets and 5-1 before illness struck with Juan-Manuel Cerundolo taking full advantage. It means we are likely to have at least one new major finalist as Berrettini is the only player remaining in the top half of the draw to have made it through to the second Sunday of a Grand Slam. Auger-Aliassime is the most accomplished player in this half of the draw but don’t be surprised if he heads for the exits today.
As a junior, Auger-Aliassime was a star. He made the Boy’s final here in 2016 before winning the juniors at the US Open. Sadly, he has failed to live up to the hype in his decade on the main tour with two semi final appearances at the majors being his best results. Of the four majors, he has the worst win rate at the French Open with four losses in the 1st round. With Sinner out FAA is the highest remaining seed in the top half but I don’t fancy his chances. Losses to Kovacevic, Blockx and Navone on clay leading into Roland Garros highlight his inconsistency on clay. Can see this one turning into a very long 4-5 set battle.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 games
Favourable matchups against Pellegrino and Wu have seen Cobolli progress to the 3rd Round without dropping a set. Tien’s road has been slightly tougher and highlighted by two match points saved in his win over Diaz Acosta. It took him some time to figure out the point patterns against a fellow lefty but he will not have that issue against Cobolli. Tien broke the Cobolli serve five times in a 6-3 6-2 win at the China Open last year and despite the different surface this time around, the young American’s game has gone to another level since. Have him covering the games handicap and winning outright.
Best Bet: Tien +2.5 ($2.20)
Tipped both men in the previous round and they delivered – albeit in a different manner. Faria who has come through the qualifiers here beat Struff in straight sets but that came as no surprise while Tiafoe played out a five set thriller with Hurkacz. This is the first time that Faria has made it past the second round and as mentioned prior to Tiafoe’s last match, the American seems to be incorrectly discarded on clay despite making the quarters here twelve months ago. He has a significant edge in experience and will not be passing up the opportunity with Sinner out the door.
Best Bet: Tiafoe WIN ($1.57)
Some say you can never discredit someone who beats the best player in the world but the reality is that Sinner was up 6-3 6-2 5-1 before his body let him down. Admittedly, Cerundolo still needs to get the job done but he entered the tournament with a 2-5 record at the majors which does not include 10 other failed attempts in qualifying. Lost in the opening round at the Barcelona Open and Rome Masters and was comprehensively beaten by Darderi 6-3 6-1 in Madrid. In comparison, Landaluce who is in his first full year on the tour made the quarter finals of both the Miami Masters and Rome Masters. A junior Grand Slam champion (US Open 2022), the 20yo is going places.
Best Bet: Landaluce +2.5 ($1.88)
Cerundolo v Landaluce: Landaluce +2.5 ($1.88)
Berrettini v Comesana: Comesana WIN
Faria v Tiafoe: Tiafoe WIN ($1.57)
Arnaldi v Collignon: Collignon WIN
Auger-Aliassime v Nakashima: Over 37.5 games
Kouame v Tabilo: Kouame To Win A Set – YES ($1.73)
Cobolli v Tien: Tien +2.5 ($2.20)
Cerundolo v Svajda: Over 30.5 games ($1.92)