Men’s tennis has been dealt a savage blow with Carlos Arlcaraz sustaining a wrist injury that has ruled him out of the tournament and likely Wimbledon as well. It means that there will be no three-peat for the Spaniard and opens the door for Sinner to join him on the elite list of players to have won all four majors. His absence also means opportunity for someone else to step up but is there anybody capable of doing so…
Jannik Sinner ($1.36): Even when Nadal was at his absolute peak, we did not see him installed this short to win the French Open. The difference is he still needed to get the better of proven champions at their best including Djokovic, Federer and Wawrinka. With Alcaraz out, Sinner’s biggest hurdle and the second favourite is Alexander Zverev – a player whom he has defeated in each of their last 9 meetings including a crushing 6-2 6-1 win in Madrid last month. The gap between Sinner and the rest of this field is monumental. It’s not like he needed things to get any easier but the draw has been extremely favourable with all the notable threats (Djokovic, Zverev, Ruud, Fils and Jodar) in the other half. Injury or illness are the only things that can prevent him from winning and he is likely to win he tournament without dropping a single set.
Casper Ruud ($23): Last season was a down year for Ruud who was forced to deal with a left knee injury. He has bounced back in 2026 and is coming off a finals appearance at the Rome Masters. Went down 6-4 6-4 to Sinner in what was a competitive match. More importantly, he is a two-time runner up in this tournament and has a dozen clay court titles on his resume. In what is a weak field, he is among the most accomplished players on this surface.
Arthur Fils ($21): The only other name I am keen to put on this list is Frenchman Arthur Fils. Was in red-hot form after winning the Barcelona Open and making it to the semi finals in Madrid (lost to Sinner) but was forced to retire in Rome with a hip issue. Has since been cleared of any serious damage and has the game to go deep. One of the biggest forehands in tennis and his recent success will give him the confidence required to make a run at it. The big question mark is best of five sets tennis as he has never made it beyond the 4th Round at this level.
Rafael Jodar ($26): It was going to be a matter of time before the next Spanish star emerged and his name is Rafael Jodar. Won his maiden ATP Tour title in Marrakech and has catapulted his way up the rankings since. Made the semi finals in Barcelona (lost to Fils in three sets), quarters in Madrid (lost to Sinner) and went down to Darderi in Rome in a match that ended at 2am in the morning in very heavy conditions. This will be just his second Grand Slam appearance but there are less than a handful of players that can beat him.
Novak Djokovic ($13): Leading into the Australian Open I said that he had one great match left in him on Rod Laver Arena and he made me look like a genius when he downed Sinner in the semi finals. Ran out of steam against Alcaraz and despite having won this tournament multiple times, Djokovic has not played the number of matches necessary to be competitive. Played a single match in Rome and it ended in a loss to Prizmic after winning the opening set. In the same section as Fonseca and Ruud which will make for some very interesting viewing in the opening week. Novak will not be adding to his haul of major titles.
Alexander Zverev ($11): An 0-3 record in major finals and a series of heavy losses at the hands of Sinner have caused serious damage to Sinner’s level of belief. He wasted four match points in his semi final battle with Darderi in Rome only to be bageled in the deciding set. When a player of this calibre loses a set 6-0, there is cause for concern. With the duo of Fils and Jodar in his quarter, Zverev faces a tricky draw.
Daniil Medvedev ($41): May have forced Sinner to a deciding set in the final of the Rome Masters but don’t buy into the recent form of Medvedev on the red dirt. Has lost in the opening round in 6 of his 8 appearances at the French Open and has not beaten a top 10 ranked player on clay since 2023.
Alex De Minaur ($101): Added another Grand Slam quarter final to his list in Australia but fell to 0-7 in major quarter finals and is a big fade here. Lost his last four matches on clay leading into this tournament with defeats against Ofner, Medjedovic, Jodar and Arnaldi. With Rublev, Etcheverry, Mensik and Ruud all in his quarter of the draw, the Aussie is zero chance of winning the tournament.
Joao Fonseca ($51): The Brazilian may have an incredible amount of talent, but he does not know how to win matches – especially at Grand Slam level. Is ye to make it beyond the 3rd Round at the majors and there are too many lapses of concentration in his matches. Needs to improve his point construction significantly as a player that possesses his power should not need to hit 3-4 big shots to put a point away.
Andrey Rublev ($151): We have witnessed a mini revival from Rublev who made the finals in Barcelona (lost to Fils) and quarters in Rome (lost to Sinner). Losses to two of the form players on clay reads well on paper but when it comes to Rublev we will always steer clear of him at the majors as he is yet to make it past the quarter finals stage.
Alexander Bublik ($151): Made the quarter finals for the first and only time at Grand Slam level here 12 months ago but again showed us that he cannot be trusted at this level. Created some false hope when he beat De Minaur and Draper on his way to the final eight last year but them managed to win a total of only 6 games in the loss to Sinner which included a bagel.
Stefanos Tsitsipas ($151): We don’t often put a line through a former finalist and despite having won the Monte Carlo Masters three times, Tsitsipas is currently a shadow of the former number 3 player in the world. Has failed to make it past the 2nd Round in his last 7 major appearances and is unlikely to end his struggles here.
Team America: This section is becoming a staple at the majors and this is the Grand Slam that the American drought is least likely to end at. We haven’t seen an American champion here since Andre Agassi in 1999 and they haven’t gone close since with ZERO American men making the semi finals since. You can put a line through Fritz ($151), Paul ($81), Shelton ($126), Tiafoe ($151), Korda ($201), Tien ($201) and the rest of the American contingent. The only American who is a chance of making the second week is Learner Tien.
Winner
Best: Sinner ($1.36)
Value: Ruud ($21), Fils ($21), Jodar ($21)
Quarter Winners
Quarter 1: Sinner
Quarter 2: Tien, Vacherot
Quarter 3: Ruud
Quarter 4: Fils, Jodar