Toronto have lost three of their last four games and are now in the #7 seed, meaning a play-in finish is looking increasingly likely. It’s been a real dip in form from Darko Rajaković’s men, and Monday’s 101-115 loss to Boston was an indicator of where they are at. Toronto were certainly in the hunt in the fourth, heading into three-quarter time down just 77-80, but they showed little resistance to Boston’s offence, giving up 35 fourth quarter points to lose this contest. It was a rough night from the big three of Toronto’s with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes all struggling from the floor, going a combined 17/44 to contribute to a poor offensive night, recording a 104.2 offensive rating which was their worst in almost a month. Ja’Kobe Walter was Toronto’s best, with 16 points, two steals and one block, while Collin Murray-Boyles had an impressive 12 points, five rebounds, five assists and one block.
Miami are 10th in the East but remain in the hunt for as high as a #5 seed finish after a 152-136 beatdown of Washington on Sunday. A 41-point second quarter got Miami on their way to a blowout, and they continued that momentum in the third quarter with a 45-point effort, opening up a 35-point lead late in the quarter and that was enough to seal the win. It came in Miami’s best offensive game of the season, with a 148.8 offensive rating thanks to a lights out shooting night. The team recorded a 71.9% eFG%, including going 17/39 from three, this time with Jaime Jaquez Jr leading the scoring with 32 points and four assists. Kel’el Ware was a standout, with 24 points, 19 rebounds and seven blocks and Andrew Wiggins was very tidy on his way to 21 points. Bam Adebayo had 14 points, nine rebounds and seven assists against the team he scored 83 against less than a month ago and Pelle Larsson had another sharp night with 16 points, seven rebounds and four dimes.
Both Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are set to return for Miami and that gives them the advantage in this clash. Toronto have been very inconsistent defensively of late, especially against playoff-level teams, and the pace that Miami plays with will give them a lot of headaches, making the visitors value at this line.
Boston have secured a top-three finish in the East and are in the box seat for the #2 seed after a 115-101 victory against Toronto. Boston were in control most of the way and they made no mistake in closing the game out with an impressive 35-24 fourth quarter, this time with their defence taking care of business. Holding the visitors to just a 51.8% eFG and forcing 15 turnovers, Boston were able to apply a lot of heat on the defensive end and they made the most of it in transition, with 15 fast break points. On the offensive end, it was another big night from the Jays, with Jaylen Brown leading the scoring with 26 points and Jayson Tatum posting 23 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and three steals in another complete performance. Neemias Queta had standout showing too, with 18 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three blocks, and Derrick White did his job again with 10 points, six rebounds and six assists.
Charlotte are now 9-2 in their last 11 games and remain in the race for the #5 seed following their 122-108 victory against Minnesota on Monday. A dominant second half got Charlotte the dub, with a 34-19 third quarter opening up some breathing room, before starting the final period with a 22-10 run to lead 111-89, icing the game in the process. LaMelo Ball was outstanding in this contest, recording 35 points and eight assists, going 7/14 from three in the process to carry Charlotte’s offence. Miles Bridges hit all four of his threes to finish with 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists and Moussa Diabaté defended well again for eight points, nine rebounds, four assists and one block.
Charlotte will need to be at the top of their game to reverse a 99-114 loss to Boston just over a week ago, and I simply don’t have Charles Lee’s team on the same level as Boston. We will see that play out on Wednesday, with Boston’s offence set to blow Charlotte out of the water. I also don’t see Ball having offensive success against a loaded and lengthy Boston defence, which makes the 5.5-point line appealing.
Phoenix picked up a much-needed 120-110 victory over Chicago on Monday to keep their top-six hopes alive. Currently in the #7 seed and three games back of the #6 seed Minnesota, Jordan Ott’s men are going to need to finish the season strongly if they are to avoid the play-in, and it was a solid defensive showing on Monday that got them one step closer. Dillon Brooks has certainly helped Phoenix’s defensive ability since his return, and he was strong on Monday with 15 points, three assists, two steals and one block and Oso Ighodaro had two steals and three blocks to again prove his defensive value. Devin Booker dropped 30 points and four assists to lead the visitors’ offence, while Jalen Green had a tidy 25 points.
Alperen Şengün scored the game-winning layup in San Francisco on Monday to increase Houston’s win streak to six games in a 117-116 triumph. Golden State had the chance to win the game in the final possession but Steph Curry’s three-pointer attempt was off, seeing the visitors hold on and extend their lead for the #5 seed, while keeping their chances of a top-three finish alive. It was another exciting offensive showing from Ime Udoka’s men, recording a 63.1% eFG% thanks to another efficient scoring night from Kevin Durant. The veteran forward ended with 31 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and three blocks and Şengün had 24 points, six rebounds, seven assists and two blocks to make it an elite night for Houston’s two stars. Jabari Smith Jr added 23 points and nine boards and Amen Thompson contributed 18 points and seven assists to pick up an important road win.
Both teams still have a lot to play for in the regular season, setting up a high-stakes game on Wednesday. Both teams play physical defence with lengthy wings and we’ll see two similar styles go head-to-head, and with Brooks, Green and Booker now fully healthy, I see value in Phoenix as home underdogs. They are 23-16 ATS at home this season and Houston are just 27-41 ATS as favourites.