Super Rugby Pacific Round 10 | Tips & Preview

The Blues’ four-game win streak came to a dramatic halt on Saturday, losing their top-of-the-table battle against the Hurricanes 19-42. The hosts’ free-flowing and attack-focused style of play kept the Blues on the back foot for most of the night, before the game became somewhat of a blowout in the final 20 minutes. As the second-best defensive team in the competition heading into the game, the Aucklanders looked second-rate on that side of the ball, starting the game off with virtually no ball for the opening 20 minutes and while possession balanced out more as the game went on, the Blues never felt like they were in control. Zarn Sullivan produced a couple of big shots in defence and had some incisive carries in what was an impressive return from injury, while Josh Beehre had another workhorse performance with 17 tackles, but a flaky defensive performance from the visitors, especially out wide, set them up for defeat.

The Highlanders were involved in an absolute dog fight against the Brumbies last Friday, but came out on the wrong side of the scoreboard in a 10-14 loss. A moment of brilliance from Jona Nareki saw him collect a cross-field kick, dink a grubber of his own behind the Brumbies’ defence and then regather to score a try and put the hosts up 10-7 with 15 minutes to play, but Henry Bell was somewhat controversially sin-binned shortly after. That gave ACT a one-man advantage for the final eight minutes and they utilised that to get into the Landers’ 22 and crash their way over for the match-winning try. It was a tough loss to accept for Jamie Joseph’s side, as both sides toiled away defensively and were somewhat scrappy on attack and at set piece. It was the Brumbies who enjoyed the most ball, however, especially late in the game, and that is what mattered most, seeing the Landers drop to a 3-5 record. Nareki was the best on the field for the hosts, getting involved often and making plenty of dangerous runs, while Taine Robinson had his moments in his first game of the season. Timoci Tavatavanawai had his usual strong runs, Nic Shearer tried to energise his team at halfback and TK Howden put in another monster defensive effort with 22 tackles.

The Blues have a could of big ins and outs this week, with Caleb Clarke (calf) out and Dalton Papali’i, Patrick Tuipulotu and Hoskins Sotutu all returning from injury. For the Landers, young backs Xavier Tito-Harris and Finn Hurley are set to make their season debuts, but the addition of the Blues’ All Blacks forwards will result in domination from their pack. The hosts will be licking their wounds after last week’s loss and the 14.5-point line is too low here.

Best
Blues -14.5 ($1.90)

Value
Blues 21-30 ($4.20)

Try Scorer
Hoskins Sotutu ($16 First, $2.45 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Hoskins Sotutu Try / AJ Lam Try / Jona Nareki Try ($17.94)

The Waratahs would have had a very long bye week after suffering a 14-42 demolition in their Round 8 date with the Chiefs. There would have been an air of confidence among the NSW camp in their road trip to Hamilton, coming off a shock 30-28 victory over the Brumbies the week prior, but they were quickly put on the back foot in the Tron, conceding the game’s first two tries for a 0-13 deficit. Exciting youngster Sid Harvey then struck back for NSW’s first try, but a slow end to the first half resulted in a 7-23 halftime scoreline and things only got worse in the second 40. The Tahs were perhaps fortunate that the margin was only 28 points at the end of the 80 minutes, as their forward pack got pushed around the park all game, resulting in just four entries into the Chiefs’ 22. Their scrum was awful and their ruck defence was almost as bad, with a few injections of spark from Max Jorgensen and the occasional bustling run from Pete Samu being the only positives for Dan McKellar to take away from this contest.

Moana Pasifika were on the receiving end of another hefty defeat on Saturday, this time losing 17-62 to the Chiefs. After being forced to move this game from Nuku’alofa to Rotorua, it was already a tough blow having to play this home fixture in Chiefs territory, and it was clear early on that Moana were out of their depth. They conceded three tries in the opening 18 minutes to give up more than a point a minute, before a pair of quick tries from the Chiefs early in the second half expanded the score out to 0-36. Moana were then able to find some attacking form of their own, with Solomon Alaimalo scooping up a Patrick Pellegrini chip kick to stroll over. Abraham Pole and Miracle Fai’ilagi added consolation tries for the hosts, but this was another rough defensive effort from MP in what is quickly becoming a grim season. Their execution in Chiefs territory was not up to scratch but their defence was their downfall, conceding 14 line breaks and missing an inexcusable 24% of their tackle attempts. Mills Sanerivi led MP’s defence with 14 tackles and Pole worked hard defensively off the bench, while Pellegrini’s cameo off the bench gave MP’s attack some inspiration and Fai’ilagi carried with good intent.

The Tahs have named a relatively steady team, with Jake Gordon coming in at halfback, Lawson Creighton returning from injury and Angus Scott-Young slotting in at blindside flanker. For Moana Pasifika, Patrick Pellegrini starts at first five-eighth and Solomon Alaimalo moves to centre, and I expect the midfield of Moana’s defence to see a lot of traffic on Friday night. We are going to see a lot of attacking rugby in this contest, featuring two teams that aren’t shy to move the ball, making the over the play. The over is 8-3 in Moana’s last 11 road games and is the bet again in Sydney.

Best
Over 64.5 ($1.90)

Value
Waratahs 11-20 ($4.00)

Try Scorer
Sid Harvey ($10 First, $1.70 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Sid Harvey Try / Glen Vaihu / Pete Samu Try ($9.46)

The Chiefs cruised to a 62-17 win over the bottom-of-the-table Moana Pasifika last Saturday, but things are about to get much tougher in a 1 v 2 clash in the capital. The Chiefs barely had to break a sweat in Rotorua last week, as they scored the first four tries of the game for a 26-0 lead at halftime. Quinn Tupaea was the star of the first half with two tries, before Damian McKenzie and Tyrone Thompson added another pair of tries shortly into the second half to make it a 36-point lead and give Moana Pasifika no chance of coming back. The Chiefs continue to inflict the pain for Moana Pasifika. The Chiefs continued to inflict more pain on the hosts throughout the second half, as McKenzie and Thompson both completed their doubles to make it a near 50-point win and move up to second on the table. The Chiefs had it all their own way with 14 entries into Moana’s 22 and they were able to slow down the visitors’ ball considerably, making it hard for them to gain any momentum on attack. Rampant ball running from the likes of Liam Coombes-Fabling, Kyren Taumoefolau and Tupaea meant that the Chiefs were always going forward, while the likes of Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Simon Parker and Thompson made it an effective night from the pack too.

The Hurricanes recorded a statement win on Saturday, beating the Blues 42-19 to move three points clear atop the standings and set up another top-of-the-table clash against the Chiefs this week. It was an emphatic performance from the Canes, dominating the opening 20 minutes by controlling over 80% of possession to build a 14-0 lead, and while the Blues got it back to 14-12, the Canes scored the next two tries to get out to a 28-12 lead by the 50-minute mark, before adding salt to the would with two more tries in the final 20 minutes. We have seen plenty of free-flowing footy from Clark Laidlaw’s men this season, but Saturday’s display was their most impressive, regularly slicing through what is a very good Blues defence, as the likes of Callum Harkin, Cam Roigard, Fehi Fineanganofo and Xavier Numia helped the team record 16 entries into the visitors’ 22. Josh Moorby also added some strong runs, Jordie Barrett carried the ball all night long and Asafo Aumua had a trademark wrecking ball performance, while the Canes’ lineout dominance, led by Warner Dearns, saved them in a couple of key defensive lineouts.

I’m surprised to see the Chiefs as favourites here, especially given that Tupou Vaa’i is out. It’s a very settled Hurricanes team, and while the Chiefs have some star power, in the form of Wallace Sititi and Josh Jacomb, coming off the bench, it will be too little too late. This Hurricanes attack is on another level and they have covered five of seven games this season, making them my bet.

Best
Hurricanes +1.5 ($1.90)

Value
Hurricanes 1-12 ($3.20)

Try Scorer
Fehi Fineanganofo ($10.50 First, $2.10 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Fehi Fineanganofo Try / Cam Roigard Try / Josh Lord Try ($39.84)

The Brumbies picked up their third road win of the season last week, getting the better of the Highlanders in a 14-10 win. Neither team really got going on attack across the 80 minutes, with a total of 21 penalties and 35 turnovers across the game, but it was the Brumbies who were able to keep their composure late, capitalising on a yellow card to the hosts to see Luke Reimer burrow his way over to put the Brumbies up with five minutes to play, and their defence did the job from there to record another win. Now 5-3, the Brumbies are back in the top four and while it’s been their attack that has looked like their biggest asset for much of this season, they showed their defensive muscles on Friday, conceding just one try and withstanding a lot of defensive pressure in the middle section of the game. Rory Scott produced another unheralded, rock-solid defensive night, while Rob Valetini was as busy as anyone with 15 tackles and 15 carries. Corey Toole was evasive on attack and Ryan Lonergan was everywhere in his 100th cap.

The Fijian Drua picked up another win at home last Saturday, recording a tense 24-22 victory over the Force. It was a relatively shaky start for Glen Jackson’s team as Etonia Waqa was sin-binned for repeated infringements in the opening 10 minutes, allowing the Force to open the scoring, however, the Drua hit back with three consecutive tries of their own to make it 19-7 at half time. The Force got immediately back into the contest with the first two tries of the second half to reduce the Drua’s buffer to just two points but, another try from the hosts, this time through Isikeli Basiyalo, made it a seven-point game with less than 20 minutes on the clock. Ilaisa Droasese was yellow carded with 10 minutes to play and the Force immediately responded through Will Harris, setting up a grandstand finish at 24-22, but the Drua held their nerve to record another win in Lautoka. It was a tight game that could have gone either way, and it was the Drua’s ability to capitalise on their opportunities that made the difference. They didn’t have much success at set piece but their ball running was strong, with he likes of Isikeli Rabitu, Basiyalo and Virimi Vakatawa all making big dents in the visitor’s defence.

It’s another difficult road game on the horizon for the Drua, and I expect them to be well out of their depth in this clash. Tom Wright is returning from injury for the hosts and there are some big absences for the Drua, including Elia Canakaivata and Droasese, making the Brumbies the clear pick.

Best
Brumbies -22.5 ($1.90)

Value
Brumbies 21-30 ($3.60)

Try Scorer
Billy Pollard ($9.25 First, $1.83 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Corey Toole Try / Billy Pollard Try / David Feliuai Try

The Force came agonisingly close to a surprise win in Fiji against the Drua last week but ultimately came up short in a 22-24 loss. A big second half saw the visitors score 15 points to be well in the fight with a one-man advantage for the final 10 minutes. However, a difficult missed penalty goal attempt from Ben Donaldson and an inability to secure their own lineout ball ended up costing the visitors in crunchtime. It was another agonising defeat for the Force, being their fifth loss of 10 points or less this season, and it came despite having the majority of possession and dominance at set piece, except for when it mattered most. Dylan Pietsch was among the Force’s best in the few opportunities that he got, with a couple of line breaks and some incisive carries from the back, while Vaiolini Ekuasi again led the way in the forward pack with 16 carries and 12 tackles. Franco Molina and Jeremy Williams were impressive in the second row once again but the Force left themselves too big of a hole to get out of, resulting in another tight defeat.

The Crusaders are now 0-2 against Australian teams this season after losing to the Reds last week 26-31. It was a very tight first half, with the two teams exchanging tries in the opening 20 minutes to see the Reds lead 12-14. That score line carried through to half time but the Reds immediately hit the front in the second 40 with a try through Tim Ryan, putting the Crusaders on the back foot, and although they tied the scores up with a try through George Bell 10 minutes later, the Crusaders never looked fully comfortable in Brisbane. The pressure started to show in the final ten minutes as the Reds ran in two tries to record an upset win over the defending champions, pulling Rob Penney’s team down to a 4-4 record. The Crusaders simply weren’t able to generate enough scoring opportunities, with just seven entries into Reds’ 22. Their set piece was solid but their forwards were outworked in open play and they were forced to make 50 more tackles than the Reds, which eventually resulted in the visitors running out of steam. Sevu Reece looked for work all night long and David Havili defended well in the back line, while Jamie Hannah got stuck in the forward pack. The absence of Will Jordan was noticeable, as the Crusaders seemed to lack their usual spark on attack, and that seemed to hurt them late on, being unable to find the counters to the Reds’ scoring.

Havili, Jordan, Fletcher Newell and Antonio Shalfoon are all out for the Crusaders this week and that leaves some vulnerabilities in their squad. The hosts are welcoming back Carlo Tizzano, Darcy Swain and Tom Robertson to add some real grit to their forward pack and a potential upset is on the cards in Perth. The Force have been a better team than their record suggests, having covered their last six games, and their physicality is going to cause the Crusaders some headaches, making this game more like a pick ’em in my eyes.

Best
Force +5.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Carlo Tizzano 1st OR 2nd Try Scorer & Force Win ($15)

Try Scorer
Dylan Pietsch ($12.50 First, $2.05 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Dylan Pietsch Try / Leicester Fainga’anuku Try / Vaiolini Ekuasi Try ($17.35)