Round 6 opens up with a grudge match of sorts between Penrith and Penrith-lite, also known as Canterbury, before the all-Queensland derby has become a much closer run affair with the absence of Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt when the Broncos host the Cowboys. A double-header in Perth kicks off Super Saturday while a surprise Top 4 clash between the Tigers and Knights wraps up the week of NRL action.
Penrith have been nothing short of historically scintillating through the opening five weeks. They have won all five games by at least 20 points. They have conceded just 10 points per game, allowing over that number just once. They have scored 40-plus points the last three weeks including putting 50 on the Storm last week, the first time Melbourne have allowed 50 since 2003. Taking them on is a dangerous proposition and Penrith have had it over the Dogs with nine wins in the last 10 with seven of those by 12-plus points. This number seems far too big though, particularly so given how well the Bulldogs brass knows the Panthers. Home underdogs of at least 12 cover at 71% while home underdogs of at least eight points cover at 63% in the opening eight rounds. Canterbury are not going to be able to break down Penrith, with their insipid attack. But they have a chance of holding Penrith to around the 20-point mark and covering the huge start, making the low Canterbury team total also a play with the big plus. Casey McLean is an elite mover with 22 tries in 35 NRL games. Tom Jenkins has an astonishing 12 tries in five games with at least two in every match.
Tips
Best: Canterbury +17.5 ($1.96)
Next: Canterbury 10 Points or Less ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Casey McLean ($8.75 First, $1.80 Anytime)
SGM: Penrith 1-12/Casey McLean Try/Tom Jenkins Try ($11.92)
Manly showed the complete disdain they held former coach Anthony Seibold in by turning around a winless start to the season with a 52-18 demolition of the Dolphins in Redcliffe. It has been very different for the Dragons, who have lost all five games and come off a performance so insipid that they were booed off at halftime at Kogarah and then booed off with an increased decibel factor of 10 in the 32-0 loss to the Cowboys. This is a real moment for the Dragons though with the club almost certain to sack coach Shane Flanagan if the Red V does not turn it around this week and he has a strong record of firing his club up off a horrid loss. The Dragons are 12-7 against the spread off a loss of 20-plus while they are 18-12 against the number off conceding 30 or more. The Dragons are 9-5 against the Sea Eagles while they have won 10 of the last 12 in Wollongong. There is just no situation Manly should be so heavily favoured on the road here with just three covers in their last 15 as a favourite away from Brookvale. The plus is great in a game the Dragons can win and win well. Tyrell Sloan has six tries in six games against Manly and has 48 tries in 77 starts in the NRL. Tom Trbojevic has five tries this season and has 68 in 78 games the last six seasons.
Tips
Best: St George Illawarra +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($16 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($5.48)
The longest-standing Queensland Derby is always a compelling affair and this one certainly looks like it will add to that legacy with the red-hot Cowboys travelling to Suncorp to meet an injury-decimated Broncos. Brisbane will be without Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt and Adam Reynolds is no certainty to play despite being named. The loss of Walsh severely damages Brisbane’s chances here with his impact at Tom Trbojevic/Manly levels. The Broncos win rate drops from 69% to 43% without Walsh while their cover record drops from 62% to 33%. Brisbane have won six straight against the Cowboys, all by eight-plus points, but this is too good a spot to pass up on Todd Payten’s team. They have won three straight with teams off a defensive shutout covering at 64%. The Cowboys are 6-3 against the spread off conceding 10 or fewer. North Queensland are a great play against a Reece Walsh-less Broncos. Jaxon Purdue is an elite tryscorer with 18 tries in 23 games as a starting centre. Braidon Burns has 16 tries in 22 games at the Cowboys. Gehamat Shibasaki has 20 tries in 29 games since winning a train and trial deal at the Broncos.
Tips
Best: North Queensland +3.5 ($1.96)
Next: North Queensland Win ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Jaxon Purdue ($12 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Jaxon Purdue Try/Braidon Burns Try/Gehamat Shibasaki Try ($10.54)
Canberra have endured a difficult season as the defending minor premiers ride a four-game losing streak. Even the Round 1 game the Raiders managed to win they trailed 14-0. It has been their defence that has been most concerning with Canberra conceding at least 28 in four of their five matches. This looks a great spot to bounce back though with the Rabbitohs having lost their last five in Perth. Canberra have a tremendous recent record against South Sydney with four straight wins and covers head-to-head. The Raiders have won 10 of the last 13 against the Rabbitohs. Ricky Stuart’s team are usually a good bet as an underdog, going 24-16 against the spread as an outsider and 16-11 against the number getting a start of at least a try. Off conceding 30-plus, the Raiders are 15-8 against the spread. Defence is usually the main key to South Sydney’s form and they are a poor 18-27 against the spread off conceding 24-plus. They are also 14-19 against the spread when favoured. The plus here is too big with Canberra eyeing a breakout win in Perth. Simi Sasagi has five tries in 17 starts in the NRL. The hard-running Tallis Duncan has 12 tries in 23 games when starting on an edge.
Tips
Best: Canberra +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canberra Win ($2.55)
Tryscorer: Simi Sasagi ($17 First, $3.05 Anytime)
SGM: Simi Sasagi Try/Tallis Duncan Try ($10.49)
The Sharks and the Roosters have both mixed form to start the season and face what shapes as a critical game for both team as Perth hosts the second-leg of its double header. That should see a defensive encounter between the two sides. Both sides are in strong under spots. The under is 15-10 when Cronulla are interstate and 20-11 when they are off a win of 13-plus. The under is also 18-14 when the Sharks are larger than $1.80. On the Roosters side, the under is 26-18 when they are off a win while three of the four Chooks games this year have gone under the total. The total here is far too high. Hugo Savala has four tries in 18 games as a starter but plays left centre for the first time where he will play more of a finishing role. Sam Stonestreet has 18 tries in 21 games at NRL level.
Tips
Best: Under 51.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 44.5 ($2.60)
Tryscorer: Hugo Savala ($19 First, $3.25 Anytime)
SGM: Hugo Savala Try/Sam Stonestreet Try ($6.07)
Melbourne are in very unfamiliar territory right now having dropped their last three including a 50-10 loss to the Panthers last week, the first time the club conceded 50 points in a game since Craig Bellamy’s rookie season in charge. This is a great situation for the Storm to straighten the very shaky ship. Melbourne have dominated New Zealand with 17 straight wins including the last 10 at AAMI. Eight of the last 10 wins have been by at least 12. In that run of 17 straight wins, the Storm covered 12. Teams off conceding 50 or more cover at 64% while those who do so in the opening eight weeks cover at 72%. The Storm are 11-6 against the spread off conceding 28-plus while they are 16-11 against the number off a loss. The Storm are a long way from the vintage Melbourne teams but given how dire the Warriors defence is they can run in a big score. Sua Fa’alogo has eight tries in five games this season. Will Warbrick is an elite tryscorer with 11 tries in 12 games across the last two seasons. Joe Chan is taking on the Eli Katoa role and has crossed twice already this season.
Tips
Best: Melbourne -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne 30+ ($6.20)
Tryscorer: Sua Fa’alogo ($8.75 First, $1.80 Anytime)
SGM: Sua Fa’alogo Try/Will Warbrick Try/Joe Chan Try ($10.11)
We are only at Round 6 but we are already at crunch time for both the Eels and Titans. Parramatta come off a brutal loss and are suffering an incredible injury crisis with six backs sidelined as well as J’maine Hopgood. The Titans have managed just a single win and blew a golden opportunity against a busted Broncos outfit. The importance of this game should lend itself to some desperate defence making the under the play. Both teams are in strong under spots. The under is 21-11 when the Eels play at CommBank with a 9-3 under record when they are favoured and 8-4 when they play a day game at the venue. On the Titans side the under is 15-9 when they are an interstate underdog and 18-12 when they are off a double digit loss. The Titans have no attack and this is a makeshift Eels backline. It is surprising to see the total north of 50. Jayden Campbell has 12 tries in 34 games as a starting half. AJ Brimson has speed to burn and has 56 tries in 140 games.
Tips
Best: Under 51.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 44.5 ($2.65)
Tryscorer: Jayden Campbell ($17 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Jayden Campbell Try/AJ Brimson ($8.21)
An all-Top 4 clash between the Knights and Tigers is something that is hard to comprehend but that is what we have when Benji Marshall’s 3-1 outfit host Justin Holbrook’s 4-1 side. The key to the Tigers success has been their defence, not conceding any more than 20 points in their four games. Newcastle have kept opponents to 19 or fewer in four of five but it is their attack that has impressed, topping 24 in four of five with two of their stars missing the majority of time. Newcastle do look a good value play in this one. They have won seven of eight against the Tigers with wins in the last two at Campbelltown. The time of this is key though with the Knights one of the premier afternoon teams in the NRL. The Knights are 28-13 against the spread in afternoon matches including a 15-8 cover record on the road. Newcastle are also 22-14 against the spread off a win. With the Tigers covering just three of 12 when favoured, the Knights look a great play. Dylan Lucas is a hard-running edge who has 15 tries in 42 games as a starter. Fletcher Sharpe has scored 24 tries in 29 NRL appearances. Dom Young is an elite finisher with 81 tries in 97 games.
Tips
Best: Newcastle +3.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle 13+ ($5.20)
Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($23 First, $3.80 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Fletcher Sharpe Try/Dom Young Try ($14.56)