NRL Tips & Preview | Round 5

The Anthony Seibold era at Manly is officially over and despite protestations from the playing group that they are disappointed with the outcome, they are likely to play with a huge weight shifted from their shoulders. Regardless of the freedom the Sea Eagles play with though, they look in for a tough night on Thursday when travelling to Redcliffe to take on a Dolphins team that averaged 32.75ppg at home last year. The home team has won all three meetings between the two teams while the Phins have covered six of eight at Kayo Stadium. The Dolphins are a night team with a 26-19 cover record under lights while they are 16-11 against the spread off scoring 18 or fewer. The high-powered Dolphins attack should have a field day against Manly. Jake Averillo will be operating against Manly’s left hand side where Luke Brooks is missing 4.7 tackles per game and Ben Trbojevic 3.7 with the Sea Eagles conceding a whopping 59% of tries down that channel. Averillo already has five tries this year. Tabuai-Fidow has 55 tries in 61 games as a Dolphin. Jamayne Isaako has three tries in four games this year and has 50 in 76 playing for the Phins.

Tips

Best: Dolphins -10.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins -23.5 ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Jake Averillo ($13 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Jake Averillo Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jamayne Isaako Try ($6.53)

The traditional Good Friday clash between South Sydney and Canterbury draws a crowd like few other games and over 50,000 are expected to attend Accor for what shapes as a belter. It is a game where defence will reign supreme with the under on the reasonably high total a tremendous bet. The last three between the Bunnies and Dogs have gone under the total and not surpassed 42. The under is 21-8 when Souths are off a win with a 14-7 under record when Souths are off conceding 16 or fewer and 28-16 when off scoring 20 or fewer. The under is 26-16 when Souths are an underdog. The Bulldogs are in a prime under spot too with the under 25-16 when they are $2 or shorter and 16-11 when off 16 or fewer. Canterbury have not scored more than 16 in any of their three appearances this year. Canterbury are conceding 44% of tries down their left channel and the hard-running Tallis Duncan has 11 tries in 22 starts playing on an edge in either the second row or at centre. Matt Burton comes off scoring a double and is likely to spend some time in the centres this week.

Tips

Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canterbury Team Total Under 23.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Tallis Duncan ($26 First, $4.60 Anytime)
SGM: Under 46.5/Tallis Duncan Try/Matt Burton Try ($42.87)

Penrith have been the gold standard through a month of the season with a remarkable four straight wins of 20-plus points, conceding just seven tries in that run while topping 40 in each of their last two. It has seen rivals Melbourne open at north of $3.00 in head-to-head betting for just the fifth time since 2022 with the market in more than a fair state despite the Storm’s reputation. Melbourne are not the team of yesteryear though with team changes and injuries finally catching up with Craig Bellamy’s team. The Storm have won four of the last five against the Panthers but they have blown double digit leads the last two weeks and look a shadow of their former selves. Penrith have covered 10 of their last 12 when favoured by a try or more while they have covered nine of 12 in NSW. They have adapted to CommBank with five covers from six starts at their temporary home ground while they covered at nearly 60% when both Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary play. The Storm have covered just four of 13 interstate while they are not a great night team, covering at just 45% under lights. Penrith will win and win comfortably if they maintain their current form. Isaiah Papalii has a great tryscoring record at the Panthers with eight in 27 games. Tom Jenkins has been the form winger of the competition with 10 tries in his four appearances.

Tips

Best: Penrith -8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Penrith 13+ ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Isaiah Papalii ($19 First, $4.20 Anytime)
SGM: Penrith Win/Isaiah Papalii Try/Tom Jenkins Try ($7.45)

Shane Flanagan’s grip on then Dragons job is slipping and will be gone sooner rather than later if he does not make the tough calls, which he has avoided for another week. They should be a good bet this week with the Cowboys favoured on the road but given their collapses and his failure to make meaningful change, the Red V cannot be trusted. There is an outstanding playing in this one and that is the over. The over has hit in eight straight Dragons-Cowboys clashes with the last three hitting 66 points. North Queensland have scored 31 or more in six straight against the Dragons while this is a huge over spot for the Cowboys with the over 16-6 when Todd Payten’s team are favoured off a win and 18-8 when they are off scoring at least 28. Kogarah is a fast track so the points should flow. Braidon Burns has crossed 15 times in 21 appearances since moving to the Cowboys. Murray Taulagi is an elite finisher with 66 tries in 112 games including 17 in his last 19. Jaxon Purdue is up against Valentine Holmes, who is missing 3.8 tackles per game. Purdue has 16 tries in 22 games playing in the centres.

Tips

Best: Over 49.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Braidon Burns ($10.50 First, $1.96 Anytime)
SGM: Braidon Burns Try/Murray Taulagi Try/Jaxon Purdue Try ($6.51)

Defending premiers Brisbane are heavily favoured to roll wooden spoon favourites Gold Coast on Saturday evening but the value is taking the Titans with the big start on home turf. The Titans come into this off their first win of the Josh Hannay era when coming from behind to roll the Dragons, a game they will have taken plenty of confidence from. This is a mammoth spot for the Titans with home underdogs of 12 or more covering at a clip of 71% the last four years – with the Cowboys winning outright against the Storm in the only instance of the situation this year. Home underdogs of eight or more in the second month of the season cover at 63% since 2008. The Titans are 7-3 against the spread getting a start of 12 or more while they are 8-4 against the number getting more than eight at home. The Broncos are an elite team but this is a danger spot for them with Michael Maguire teams covering at just 42% when favoured by at least a try. Jayden Campbell has nine tries in his last 22 games and has crossed for 12 in 35 playing in the halves. Kotoni Staggs has been in elite tryscoring form this season with five tries in four appearances this season.

Tips

Best: Gold Coast +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($4.25)
Tryscorer: Jayden Campbell ($15 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Gold Coast +12.5/Jayden Campbell Try/Kotoni Staggs Try ($12.86)

New Zealand were terribly disappointing when enduring their first loss of the season last Friday at home, completely outplayed by the Wests Tigers on home turf. The upside of that defeat though is the very enticing price on offer for the Warriors this week when they travel to Shark Park to take on a Cronulla team that have looked shaky through the first month of the season. The Warriors have had the wood on the Sharks of late with four wins and four covers in the last five meetings with New Zealand riding a three-game win streak at Shark Park. New Zealand cover at 60% when playing in Australia while they are 19-11 against the number getting at least a try, 22-14 against the spread off a loss and 7-1 against the handicap off a poor defensive showing where they conceded 30-plus. New Zealand are a very good bet to win, cover and win 13-plus. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has nine tries in 11 games when playing in the three-quarter line. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 13 tries in 18 games against Cronulla. Sam Stonestreet now has 18 tries in 20 NRL appearances.

Tips

Best: New Zealand +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: New Zealand 13+ ($5.75)
Tryscorer: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($19 First, $3.35 Anytime)
SGM: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try/Sam Stonestreet Try ($12.98)

Newcastle have shown across the opening month what an anchor Adam O’Brien was over his stint with the Knights winning three of four to open Justin Holbrook’s stint at the helm despite injuries to their two highest paid players. They can build on their hot start too when they go in as an underdog at home against a Raiders team that has been terribly disappointing after winning the minor premiership last year. Newcastle have covered nine of the last 13 against the Raiders while Canberra are poor favourites, covering just 15 of 39. The Knights are 27-13 against the spread in day games, 21-14 against the number off a win and 22-16 against the handicap at home. All the numbers push a Newcastle cover here. Fletcher Sharpe is an elite tryscorer with speed to burn who now has 23 tries in 28 NRL appearances. Dominic Young now has 79 tries in 96 games since making the shift to the NRL.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($17 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Newcastle +4.5/Fletcher Sharpe Try/Dom Young Try ($7.79)

The final round of the game is the most difficult to assess with the Eels and Tigers playing out their traditional Easter Monday clash. The value is with the Tigers as an outsider with Benji Marshall’s team winning two of three and unlucky to lose to South Sydney in between their two wins. The Eels have two nice wins but have gone to water in conceding 52 against the Storm and 48 against the Panthers. The Tigers are 16-8 against the spread off conceding 20 or fewer points. The Eels have covered just 43% off a loss. Given the form of Adam Doueihi, the Tigers are the play. Kai Pearce-Paul has scored in two of three for the Tigers and looks to be a key element of their attack. Heamasi Makasini has two tries in four NRL games and already looks comfortable in the top grade.

Tips

Best: Wests Tigers +3.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers -6.5 ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Kai Pearce-Paul ($23 First, $4.00 Anytime)
SGM: Kai Pearce-Paul Try/Heamasi Makasini Try ($10.24)