NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 6

Gerard Sutton 

• Canterbury are 4-7 with a 6-5 cover record 
• Penrith are 17-6 with a 14-9 cover record 
• Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 61% 
• Home underdogs cover at 43% 
• Home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 36% 

Gerard Sutton is the leading favourite referee in the NRL with road favourites of a notable size particularly well suited to his refereeing. Sutton officiated a road favourite of more than two converted tries last week and the Broncos covered as a big road favourite despite key injuries.  

Ref Lean:  Penrith -17.5 (Big) 

Adam Gee 

• The Dragons are 3-11 with a 6-8 cover record 
• Manly are 10-10 with an 8-12 cover record 
• Home dogs of 8+ cover at 40% 
• The over is 9-5 in Dragons games 
• The under hits at 57% when there is a home underdog 
• The under hits at 54.1% in night games

Adam Gee shows no real tendencies with neither team particularly strong. Home underdogs do poorly so perhaps the Manly minus. There is a lean the under though with home underdogs and night games going under at a big enough clip under Gee.  

Ref Lean: Under 50.5 (Small) 

Ashley Klein 

• Brisbane are 10-7 with a 12-5 record 
• North Qld are 4-10 with a 4-10 cover record 
• The over is 10-7 in Broncos games 
• The over is 9-5 in Cowboys games 

Ashley Klein is a big over referee and these teams both go over under his officiating. The Cowboys have a dire record under Klein so have to be with the Broncos. 

Ref Lean: Brisbane -1.5 (Big), Over 49.5 (Big) 

Liam Kennedy 

• Souths are 3-4 with a 3-4 cover record 
• Canberra are 3-1 with a 3-1 cover record 
• Favourites are 26–21  
• The under is 5-2 when Souths play 
• The over is 3-1 when Canberra play 

Liam Kennedy is a wildly unpredictable official who gives teams strong runs – but there is no way of forecasting who will get that in this one.  

Ref Lean: No lean 

Todd Smith 

• Cronulla are 9-4 with a 6-7 cover record 
• The Roosters are 7-5 with a 7-5 cover record 
• Favourites cover at 45% 
• The over hits in 58% of night games 
• The under hits 55% with a line less than a try 

Todd Smith does not give any of these teams a particular edge, especially with betting so close. Taking on favourites under Smith is certainly the play so a lean to the Sharks but nothing official.  

Ref Lean: No lean 

Grant Atkins 

• Melbourne are 16-12 with a 15-13 cover record 

• The Warriors are 4-5 with a 4-5 cover record 
• Home teams cover 59% 
• Interstate teams cover 45% 
• Teams off conceding 30-plus cover 63% 
• The over is 18-10 when the Storm play 

The Storm could not have asked for a better official than Grant Atkins, who is one of the biggest home ground referees with teams off conceding a big score covering at 63%.  

Ref Lean: Melbourne -9.5 (Big) 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski 

• Parramatta are 1-0 with a 0-1 cover record 
• Gold Coast are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record 
• The under is 4-1 in Titans games 
• The under hits at 64%  
• The under hits at 67% when there is a 4+ favourite 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski is shaping as a big under official through his short career and that shows few signs of abiding. Day games are still going under at 60%.  

Ref Lean: Under 51.5 (Big) 

Wyatt Raymond 

• The Tigers are 2-5 with a 3-4 cover record 
• Newcastle are 1-4 with a 1-4 cover record 
• The over is 4-1 in Knights games 
• The over is 11-6 in day games 

No team in this one has a notable edge but there is a play on the over with the over particularly strong in day games under Wyatt Raymond.  

Ref Lean: Over 49.5 (Small)