NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 5

Grant Atkins 

• Dolphins are 5-5 with a 6-4 cover record
• Manly are 10-8 with an 11-7 cover record 
• Home teams cover 59% 
• Interstate teams cover 45% 
• Teams off conceding 30-plus cover 63% 
• 10+ favourites cover 35% 
• The over is 14-4 in Manly games 
• The over hits at 60% when there is a double digit favourite

Home teams typically perform well under Grant Atkins but big favourites have a diabolical record making a line bet too difficult in this. There is a total play though with the over a big play when a team is heavily favoured and Manly having a very strong over record under Atkins.  

Ref Lean: Over 50.5 (Big) 

Todd Smith 

• Souths are 4-7 with a 5-6 cover record 
• Canterbury are 4-4 with a 4-4 cover record 
• Favourites cover at 46% 
• The under hits 55% with a line less than a try 

Todd Smith has been arguably the leading official and has rightly been given a big game. There are no strong angles from him though in this traditional Good Friday game.  

Ref Lean: No lean 

Ashley Klein 

• Penrith are 19-6 with a 15-10 cover record 
• Melbourne are 15-8 with a 12-11 cover record 
• Favourites of 8 or more cover at 57% 
• The over hits at 58% when there is an interstate team 
• The over hits at 57% when a team is favoured by 8 or more 
• The over hits at 55% when a team is off a loss

Both the Panthers and Storm have very good records under Ashley Klein with big favourites normally the play. The best ref push in this one though is the over with Klein the leading over ref and both teams in over situations under his stewardship.  

Ref Lean: Over 43.5 (Big) 

Wyatt Raymond 

• St George Illawarra are 1-3 with a 1-3 cover record 
• North Qld are 1-2 with a 1-2 cover record 
• The over hits at 67% when there is a home dog 
• The over is 56% when a team is off a loss 
• The over is 7-0 when there is an interstate favourite 

Wyatt Raymond is a natural over referee but that severely cranks up when there is a home underdog and ratchets up again when there is an interstate favourite, making the over in this one a top tier referee angle.  

Ref Lean: Over 49.5 (Big) 

Gerard Sutton 

• Gold Coast are 1-5 with a 1-5 cover record 
• Brisbane are 12-5 with an 11-6 cover record 
• Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 61% 
• Home underdogs cover at 43% 
• Home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 36%

Gerard Sutton is the leading favourite ref in the NRL with big favourites covering at an absurd 61% while the Broncos have their best record under Sutton. The Titans have a horrific record under Sutton.  

Ref Lean: Brisbane -12.5 (Big) 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski 

• Cronulla are 2-1 with a 2-1 cover record 
• New Zealand are 2-2 with a 3-1 cover record 
• The under hits at 64%  
• The under hits at 67% when there is a 4+ favourite 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski is shaping as a big under official through his short career and that increases with a favourite of over a try.  

Ref Lean: Under 47.5 (Small) 

Adam Gee 

• Newcastle are 3-6 with a 6-3 cover record 
• Canberra are 10-10 with a 12-8 cover record 
• Top 4 teams cover at 62% 
• The under hits at 57% when there is a home underdog 

Both the Knights and Raiders perform well under Gee but teams at the top of the ladder do have a strong record. No official lean in this one though.  

Ref Lean: Nil 

Peter Gough 

• Parramatta are 7-6 with a 7-6 cover record 
• Wests Tigers are 4-12 with a 7-9 cover record 
• Home favourites cover at 46% 
• The over is 9-4 in Parramatta games 

Both teams have an average cover record under Peter Gough while he is an official that leans towards underdogs. No lean here though.  

Ref Lean: Nil