Ellerslie hosts a nine-race program this Saturday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 8.5m. A mostly clear forecast in Auckland through the latter part of the week should ensure the surface is presented in excellent order for the duration of the meeting, likely sitting in the Good4/Soft5 range throughout.
Selections for each of the nine races below:
Shambo Jack (#1) produced a solid effort for 4th here first-up in what appears a stronger 2yo race than what he meets here on paper. He has the early speed to offset the wide draw and roll forward under Michael McNab, likely positioning outside leader. With natural improvement and that additional race experience under his belt, he looks a leading contender.
Deprive (#7) was last seen finishing 2nd at Te Rapa back in December. Connections have dodged Heavy tracks in favour of running here and he finally looks set to make his resumption. He’s a consistent 3yo son of El Roca, placing in all four of his career starts to date and those maidens have proven strong form references since. He shouldn’t be settling too far off the speed from the low draw, and in this sort of maiden field, he looks well placed to break through for a deserved win.
Hezashocka (#1) didn’t fire first-up on a Heavy track at Tauranga in what was a much tougher assignment than he meets here. He should strip fitter for the run and looks better suited stepping up in trip here against easier opposition here second-up. He maps to settle off a genuine tempo under Opie Bosson and should get every chance to improve sharply back in this company. Needs to improve but has the ceiling to suggest he can going off his form in Australia.
Glance (#7) is a 3yo Savabeel filly who made a big impression with a powerful last-to-first debut win at Pukekohe, beating a respectable field of 3yo’s in the process. The way she found the line over 1400m suggests the rise to 1600m will suit, and from a middle draw she maps to again settle back and finish off strongly late. With natural improvement from the debut outing, she looks very hard to beat.
Solid Gold (#11) has returned in good order this preparation, finishing off strongly at her of her two runs and not being beaten far. She looks ideally placed remaining at the mile third-up, and should again settle back from the wide draw, in a race that looks likely to be run at a genuine tempo. That setup suits, and she should be storming home late here.
Shoebill (#9) has improved with each run this campaign, breaking through impressively two starts back before running strong 2nd in good 3yo company last start. She steps up to 2200m and drops back into R65 grade, both of which looks ideal. From the middle draw, McNab will likely let her find her feet early and allow her to get into a rhythm before coming with one run late. She shapes as a key winning chance if she continues on her upward trend.
Sweet Smile (#5) is an ex-HK horse who won well first-up back in NZ before backing it up with a strong 2nd in R65 company last start. His closing work over 1200m suggests the rise to 1500m third-up may well suit, and he maps to get a soft run midfield with cover from a handy draw – which should see him given every chance to run the race out strongly. In an even race, he shapes as a leading contender.
Yaldi (#13) ran a solid race in the Gr.3 King’s Plate last start, finishing off well from the back behind Sweynesday and co. He should appreciate getting back out to 1300m here and retains Michael McNab in the saddle from a middle draw. The key for him is the first 50m, as if he steps cleanly and can settle within striking distance, he’s capable of giving this a real shake. Happy to side with him on an each way basis at the price.
Top Shelf (#8) produced a tough win here last start over 1600m, doing plenty of work early before proving too strong and tenacious for her rivals late. She maps to get a favourable run into the race if ridden positively early, as the two likely leaders in Big Wave and Sista Sugar are drawn directly underneath, which should provide her with an ideal cart forward. If Opie can find a spot near the speed without burning too many tickets early, she looks a strong chance to go back-to-back.