NRL Tips & Preview | Round 3

Round 3 opens up with a compelling affair as Ricky Stuart and his Raiders host a beleaguered Bulldogs with plenty seemingly going on off the park. The big news out of Belmore is that Bronson Xerri has been dropped over persistent sulking. All is not well. This game opened pick ‘em but the money has rightly come for Canberra. The Raiders have won five of their last six against the Bulldogs in the capital while they are 5-1 against the spread off a loss of 30 or more. Canberra are 10-4 against the spread at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders were not nearly as bad as the final score indicated against the Warriors and they should have few issues bouncing back against the Bulldogs. Simi Sasagi comes off a quality tryscoring season where he scored seven tries in 22 games. Xavier Savage has 29 tries in 47 games across the last three seasons with tries in three of his four against the Bulldogs. Jacob Preston has three tries in three meetings with the Raiders.

Tips

Best: Canberra -1.5 ($1.96)
Next: Canberra 1-12 ($3.05)
Tryscorer: Simi Sasagi ($17 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Simi Sasagi Try/Xavier Savage Try/Jacob Preston Try ($14.49)

The Friday slate is one for the ages and opens with a crackerjack affair between popular premiership pick the Sydney Roosters and title favourites Penrith. The Panthers have been as impressive as anyone, conceding just a single try in their two games against Top 8 teams from last year. They have covered eight of 10 against the Roosters while the Panthers cover at 69% in the opening month of the season. They have covered eight of 10 when favoured by at least a try. It is impossible to not take the Roosters getting a big start at home though. Home underdogs of at least a try in the opening month of the season cover at 69%. The Roosters are just getting too big a start at home in a match they will be well and truly up for. Mark Nawaqanitawase has 26 tries in 26 games and is one of the elite finishers in the NRL. Tom Jenkins has been absolutely sensational this year with back-to-back doubles after scoring 13 in 21 games last year.

Tips

Best: Sydney Roosters +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters Win ($2.40)
Tryscorer: Mark Nawaqanitawase ($9 First, $1.90 Anytime)
SGM: Mark Nawaqanitawase Try/Tom Jenkins ($3.59)

The Storm are still stinging from blowing last year’s Grand Final against the Broncos and are set to show little mercy when the teams meet at AAMI Park on Friday night. Melbourne have been simply stunning this season, putting on scores of 52 against the Eels and 46 against the Dragons, adapting to the new set restart rules better than anyone. It has been far different for the Broncos, who conceded 40 to the Eels after being held scoreless by Penrith. While Brisbane have won the last two against Melbourne – their only instance of two straight wins against the Storm since 2004 – the Storm have dominated the matchup with a 35-7 record in the last 42 clashes. The Storm have covered 27 of 38. When a Top 4 team is at home and meets a team outside of the Top 8, they cover at a clip of 70% between Rounds 3-6. Bottom five road teams cover at 35%. The Storm are 22-16 against the spread at AAMI while they are 13-6 against the number at the ground off conceding 20-plus. This shapes as a Storm rout. Jahrome Hughes has 13 tries in 14 games against the Broncos including five in the last four meetings. Harry Grant has been in rare form this year with three tries in two games. Sua Fa’alogo has been close to the best player in the premiership through two weeks with a remarkable five tries.

Tips

Best: Melbourne -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne 41+ Points ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($15 First, $2.45 Anytime)
SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Harry Grant Try/Sua Fa’alogo Try ($8.98)

Never mind the loss of Kalyn Ponga – or the loss of Dylan Brown for that matter – the Newcastle Knights are an outstanding bet against New Zealand with the 6.5 points a gift from the gods and the head-to-head price more than a little appetising. Ponga is a sublime talent but he is highly overrated by the market with the Knights covering at just 45% with him and 56% without him. It is the opposite with Fletcher Sharpe, whose win rate goes from 26% to 42% when he plays with the cover rate jumping by six points. Newcastle have played New Zealand well with seven covers in their last 10 but this is about the Knights being a big early-season home underdog with those getting a try or more in the opening month covering at 69%. Newcastle are 22-15 against the spread at home and play their best football in the afternoon with a 26-13 cover record in day games. The Warriors cover at just 38% when favoured while they are 9-21 against the spread when favoured by four or more. The Warriors win rate drops from 51% to 25% without Chanel Harris-Tavita, who is missing this week, while the Wahs cover rate drops 17 points when Charnze Nicoll-Klokstaad is out. The Knights are value across the board. Fletcher Sharpe is a remarkable talent who has 23 tries in 27 games at the top level. Leka Halasima has 16 tries in 27 games across the last two seasons.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +6.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($16 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Leka Halasima Try ($5.83)

Cronulla were soundly beaten by the Panthers last week but lost no admirers when going down by 20 in Bathurst. They will certainly appreciate – to use racing parlance – the drop in grade when hosting the Dolphins. The key here is Shark Park. Cronulla are 26-17 against the spread at Shark Park including a 10-5 cover record at the ground when playing at night/twilight while they are 17-11 against the number when favoured at the ground by 6.5 or or more. The Dolphins are poor travellers, going 10-14 against the number interstate, and there are still queries over the coaching of Kristian Woolf. The Sharks look like they will have too much discipline for a flighty Dolphins side. Addin Fonua-Blake is the top tryscoring prop in the NRL with 23 tries across the last four seasons. Braydon Trindall is a highly undervalued tryscorer with 21 tries in 28 games across the last three seasons.

Tips

Best: Cronulla -7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Addin Fonua-Blake ($26 First, $4.10 Anytime)
SGM: Addin Fonua-Blake Try/Braydon Trindall Try ($11.98)

The faith being shown on the Tigers here seems a little far-fetched based on a single beatdown of a very bad side. The Tigers have shown no ability to back up a strong performance and look far too short in this one even as an underdog. South Sydney have owned this matchup with nine wins in the last 11 with the last five wins all coming by double digits. Teams off a win in the opening four weeks cover at just 43% with the Tigers are 3-6 against the spread off scoring 30-plus. Gosford is key to this one. Souths are 9-3 against the spread at the ground while the Tigers are 2-4 against the number. The talent at the Rabbitohs should get them home comfortably. Cody Walker is an underrated tryscorer who has 100 in 225 games, scoring six in his last eight against the Tigers. Alex Johnston has a remarkable 20 tries in 18 games against the Tigers including 12 in his last seven. Latrell Mitchell has 49 tries in 65 games starting at left centre.

Tips

Best: South Sydney -5.5 ($1.90)
Next: South Sydney 13+ ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Cody Walker ($19 First, $3.20 Anytime)
SGM: Cody Walker Try/Alex Johnston Try/Latrell Mitchell Try ($8.35)

No coach better prepares his teams to rebound off a bad loss better than Shane Flanagan, putting the Dragons well in the frame for best bet status this week against a Parramatta team pumped full of recency bias by the market. Flanagan team off conceding 40-plus cover at 63% the following week while those off a loss of 20-plus cover at 67%. The Dragons are 30-19 against the number off a loss and 19-9 against the spread off a double digit loss. The Dragons are also highly underrated as a big outsider, covering 23 of 34 getting a start of more than a converted try. There is a lot of hype around the Eels too for a team that had 50 put on them in week one. They are 7-11 against the number when favoured and cover at just 40% off a win. The Dragons are a tremendous bet in this one, particularly getting over a converted try. Valentine Holmes has remained a quality tryscorer with 24 tries in his last 40 games. Christian Tuipulotu has 17 tries in 23 games since moving to the Red V. Kelma Tuilagi comes off a double and is a fearsome edge runner up against a team that has been opened up on the right in both games this year.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Valentine Holmes ($15 First, $2.50 Anytime)
SGM: Valentine Holmes Try/Christian Tuipulotu Try/Kelma Tuilagi Try ($14.61)

There has been little to like about North Queensland through two weeks as Todd Payten clings to his job as head coach by only his well-worn fingernails and anything shy of a smashup here will keep him well in the furnace. The numbers dictate though that the Cowboys have to be bet laying less than a converted try. North Queensland have dominated this matchup with six wins in the last eight including four straight in Townsville that have all been by margins of 12 or more. The Cowboys have covered 10 of the last 12 against the Titans in Townsville. While the Cowboys come off a humiliating defeat, they do tend to bounceback with a 65% cover rate off a double digit loss. North Queensland are 8-2 against the spread off conceding 40-plus and 10-4 against the number off a loss of 20-plus. With bottom five road teams covering at 35% before Round 6, the Cowboys can be bet with confidence. Jaxon Purdue has 15 tries in 20 games starting in the centres. Braidon Burns has 13 tries in 19 games since moving to the North Queensland Cowboys. Helium Luki has two tries in six games against Gold Coast.

Tips

Best: North Queensland -5.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland 30+ ($7.00)
Tryscorer: Jaxon Purdue ($11 First, $1.87 Anytime)
SGM: Jaxon Purdue Try/Braidon Burns Try/Heilum Luki Try ($8.05)