NRL Tips & Preview | Round 2

Both the Broncos and Eels were left red-faced in their respective season openers and are both desperately hoping to bounce back in Round 2. Brisbane were shutout at home by Penrith after Hull KR ran roughshod over them in the World Club Challenge with rumblings out of Red Hill that the camp is not happy, not helped by Payne Haas’ stunning decision to sign with South Sydney next year. Parramatta scored first against Melbourne and then imploded as they conceded 52 points after being torn apart for an astonishing 13 line breaks. The ructions at the Broncos certainly seem deeper than those at the Eels and this is a super spot for Parramatta with underdogs of 12 or more off conceding 50 in the first eight rounds covering at 85%. Teams off conceding 50-plus cover at 64% full stop. Rounds 1-4 favourites of at least 6.5 or more covering at 31%. Parramatta +12.5 are one of the better bets of Round 2. Sean Russell scored the opening try last week against the Storm and has three tries in five games against the Broncos. Josiah Karapani has 11 tries in his last 14 games. Mitchell Moses is always over the odds with 10 tries in his last 22 appearances.

Tips

Best: Parramatta +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Parramatta Win ($3.90)
Tryscorer: Sean Russell ($19 First, $3.90 Anytime)
SGM: Sean Russell Try/Josiah Karapani Try/Mitchell Moses Try ($24.05)

New Zealand were sensational in putting the Roosters to the sword last Friday, playing a disciplined and hard-running brand of football that obliterated one of the pre-season hotpots for the premiership. Canberra overcame one of the worst officiating starts to a season imaginable that kept the ball from their hands for the first 11 minutes to win in golden point over Manly. The Raiders have won the last three against the Warriors with the underdog covering nine of the last 11. The concern for the Warriors is their 38% cover record when favoured and their 4-12 cover record at Mt Smart off a win. The Raiders cover at 58% when $1.80 or larger while they are 17-12 against the spread off scoring 28-plus and off conceding 28-plus. Canberra can be bet with confidence. The Warriors leaked nearly 60% of their tries conceded down the right last season and it was more of the same when right centre Ali Leiataua missed two tackles that led to tries so the focus will be on left-edge Canberra players. Hudson Young has six tries in 10 games against the Warriors. Sebastian Kris’ record is even better with six tries in nine matches against New Zealand.

Tips

Best: Canberra +1.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canberra 13+ ($4.40)
Tryscorer: Hudson Young Try ($17 First, $3.30 Anytime)
SGM: Hudson Young Try/Sebastian Kris Try ($10.02)

The oldest rivalry in the league plays out its latest chapter on Friday night in a match that could prove historic and will certainly prove seminal for both teams’ hopes in 2026. Alex Johnston is just one try off Ken Irvine’s record and would love nothing more than to claim the record against South Sydney’s oldest and most hated rival. While Souths were certainly one of the more impressive teams in Round 1, they look vulnerable as they are down to their fourth-choice halfback in Jayden Sullivan. While Trent Robinson teams have a poor Round 1 record, his teams have won 67% of Round games with a 6-2 record off a loss. The Roosters have won five of the last six against Souths with four wins and covers in the last five at Allianz. The Roosters have covered 13 of 21 off conceding 30-plus while Souths are 10-14 against the number off scoring 30-plus. The Roosters look super value. Billy Smith is an elite mover with six tries in his last 11 games and matches up against the weaker South Sydney right edge. Latrell Mitchell has 49 tries in 64 games playing in the centres.

Tips

Best: Sydney Roosters -1.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters 1-12 ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Billy Smith Try ($15 First, $2.95 Anytime)
SGM: Billy Smith Try/Latrell Mitchell Try ($5.92)

It is absolutely stunning to see the Wests Tigers favoured in this one against North Queensland even if the Cowboys are off a poor loss and the Tigers open their season at their spiritual home ground. Ever since the Tigers stunned the Cowboys by putting 66 on North Queensland, Todd Payten’s team have won five straight, scoring 32-plus in each. North Queensland have also won three of the last four at Leicchardt. The key number around the Tigers is what a poor record they have when favoured, covering three of 13 when the elect. North Queensland have covered at 65% off a double digit loss. With North Queensland more advanced into their season, they look a super bet getting more than a try in a game they can win and win handily. The Tigers conceded 53% of tries down their right edge so working the Cowboys left. Tom Dearden has six tries in nine games against the Wests Tigers. Murray Taulagi has a remarkable record scoring against the Tigers with 10 in just eight appearances.

Tips

Best: North Queensland +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland Win ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Tom Dearden Try ($21 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Tom Dearden Try/Murray Taulagi Try ($6.48)

Arguably no team gives Melbourne more grief than St George Illawarra and with the incredible record of big early-season home underdogs, the Dragons are the best of the week getting more than a converted try in Wollongong. The Dragons have won then last two against the Storm while they are 16-8 against the spread in head-to-head clashes dating back to 2008. Home underdogs of four or more in the opening four rounds cover at 66%. The Dragons are 27-16 against the spread getting a start of at least a try and 23-10 against the number getting at least 6.5. Shane Flanagan’s team have covered 16 of 24 in Wollongong. With the Storm covering just six of 15 off a win of 30-plus, the way to bet this one is to confidently bet the Dragons getting 7.5 start. Kyle Flanagan is a highly underrated tryscorer who is well over the odds. He has scored 12 tries in 45 games for the Red V. Will Warbrick has 38 tries in 57 games making him an incredibly reliable tryscorer.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Kyle Flanagan Try ($31 First, $5.80 Anytime)
SGM: Kyle Flanagan Try/Will Warbrick Try ($9.03)

Penrith could not have looked more ready to win their fifth title in six years when setting off their campaign with a 26-0 road win against defending premiers Brisbane. That should prove ominous for the rest of the league. They play their first home game of the season at Bathurst and they look primed for a big win against Cronulla. The Panthers have dominated the Sharks with five straight wins and eight covers in the last 10. Cronulla have really struggled to break Penrith down too, scoring 12 or fewer in six of the last eight meetings with the Panthers. Penrith are near-impossible to beat with Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary in the lineup, winning at 83% and covering at 60% since 2020. Penrith are typically underrated at the start of the season, covering at nearly 70% in Rounds 1-4 since 2021, while teams off a defensive shutout cover at 64%. Cronulla are 13-24 against the spread off scoring 30-plus and look to be getting too much credit from the market. Casey McLean is an elite tryscorer with 20 tries in 31 games and gets the plumb matchup on the side where the Sharks concede the most. Tom Jenkins scored a double last week and now has 20 tries in 28 games for the Panthers.

Tips

Best: Penrith -7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla 10 Points or Less ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Casey McLean Try ($9.25 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Casey McLean Try/Tom Jenkins Try ($3.57)

Newcastle were bet heavily early in this one with the line moving from 6.5 to 3.5 but the sharps with come into the Sea Eagles with Fletcher Sharpe unavailable. Newcastle’s win percentage drops from 42% to 26% when Sharpe is sidelined. Manly have covered eight of the last 11 against the Knights while they have won three of the last four at Brookvale. Manly cover at 60% off conceding 28-plus while they are 15-8 against the spread at Brookvale off a loss. The Knights cover at just 44% getting a start of at least a try. Manly are not a reliable proposition but their average pack gets a reprieve this week against Newcastle and if they get on top they have the firepower to run up a score. Tolutau Koula is an elite tryscorer who had 17 tries in 22 games last season and opened the year with a double against the Raiders. Tom Trbojevic looks much fitter than last season and his tryscoring record is superb with 68 in 82 games since 2020. Lehi Hopoate has 16 tries in 21 games on the wing.

Tips

Best: Manly -3.5 ($1.90)
Next: Manly 13+ ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula ($11 First, $2.25 Anytime)
SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Tom Trbojevic Try/Lehi Hopoate Try ($8.42)

The opening round finished off with the Dolphins featuring in a match that totalled 70 points and we are looking at something similar here when the Phins host South East Queensland rivals Gold Coast. The Dolphins are a clear over team, one who can run in points but is flimsy defensively. The over is 25-15 when the Dolphins are off a loss and 18-12 when they play at Suncorp. The Titans conceded 50 in a horrid defensive showing in Round 1 with the over 8-3 when the Gold Coast play at Suncorp. Betting alternative over lines too is also recommended. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 53 tries in 58 games since moving to the Dolphins. Herbie Farnworth has 13 tries in 20 games across the last two seasons. Selwyn Cobbo has 43 tries in 58 games on the wing

Tips

Best: Over 52.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($8.50 First, $1.70 Anytime)
SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Herbie Farnworth Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try ($4.75)