The NRL season kicks off in Las Vegas for the third straight year with the traditional double-header and all eyes on the new recruits making their club debuts led by Dylan Brown at Newcastle, Reed Mahoney at North Queensland and Dan Atkinson at St George Illawarra.
After enduring an awful season that netted the club its fourth wooden spoon in 11 years, Newcastle smartly moved on from Adam O’Brien and get the fresh start they need under astute new mentor Justin Holbrook. Holbrook did a very good job at the Titans, taking the team to a rare finals berth, and should improve the Knights immediately, particularly with ball in hand.
It is a different situation at the Cowboys, who have stubbornly stuck fat with Todd Payten. Almost no coach is under as much pressure. The Cowboys certainly have more roster issues than the Knights with Jeremiah Nanai and Zac Laybutt out and John Bateman unlikely to play. Holbrook smartly decided to start Fletcher Sharpe.
Underdogs need to be the natural starting point in Round 1, covering at 59%. Underdogs of a try or more return a profit on turnover of 68% in head-to-head betting in Round 1. North Queensland are 19-25 against the spread when favoured including covering at just 40% when favoured by 4 or more. Newcastle are 11-8 against the spread interstate.
Newcastle can win this and win it big. Fletcher Sharpe is an elite tryscorer with 22 tries in 26 games. Braidon Burns has been superb at the Cowboys, scoring 12 tries in 17 games.
Tips
Best: Newcastle +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($16 First, $3.20 Anytime)
SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Braidon Burns Try ($6.80)
Canterbury’s continued rise as an NRL power will very much depend on how they perform in Las Vegas against rivals St George Illawarra. There is no doubt the Bulldogs have a major talent edge, particularly with international Matt Burton overcoming a hamstring injury. All eyes will be on how Lachlan Galvin performs after his first full offseason at Belmore.
The Dragons have brought in Dan Atkinson but are going to struggle to break down a Bulldogs team that conceded just 17.25 points per game in 2025.
While the Bulldogs should get the two points, the best bet in this game is the under. The under hits at 69% in Round 1 with opening round night games going under at 73.3%. The under is also 16-7 when the Bulldogs are favoured by at least a try. The total points line look way too big. Jacob Preston was Canterbury’s top tryscorer last season and has 24 tries in 60 games. Viliame Kikau has four tries in nine games against the Dragons.
Tips
Best: Under 38.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra 10 Points or Less ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($17 First, $3.90 Anytime)
SGM: St George Illawarra Under 15.5/Jacob Preston Try/Viliame Kikau Try ($28.78)