Indiana have won two of their last three games to somewhat hurt their tanking progress, as they have started to find a bit of form now with a largely healthy roster. Their 6-5 record in their last 11 games has them at 12-36 on the season and no longer with the worst record in the league, with Thursday’s 113-110 victory over Chicago being their latest triumph. Scoring the last four points of the game to cap off a 24-8 run, it was a strong finish to the game that got Indiana home, as Aaron Nesmith came up with a layup and then a block on the other end of the floor in a couple of massive plays. He was arguably Indiana’s best on the night, with 14 points, four rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block, while Andrew Nembhard had a solid night at point guard, with 18 points, six rebounds and nine assists. Pascal Siakam’s shot was off, going 6/16 from the field for 20 points, but it didn’t matter, as the hosts stormed to the finish line for the win.
Atlanta had their four-game win streak come to an emphatic ending on Friday, losing to Houston 86-104. It was a very ugly offensive night from the hosts, shooting just 36.6% from the field, including a 30.8% clip from deep, as they struggled to get any good looks with Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu on the sidelines. CJ McCollum was looking after the offence and did a respectable job, with 23 points, but Atlanta could not generate good offence, as Dyson Daniels went 2/12, Nickeil Alexander-Walker shot 6/16 and Mouhamed Gueye went 1/8 in a rough night for the hosts.
Johnson is questionable to return on Sunday, as is Zaccharie Risacher, but I am not expecting offensive fireworks from either team heading into this contest. We’ve seen both teams lean into their defence of late, and that’s resulted in the under hitting in seven of Indiana’s last 10 games and six of Atlanta’s last 10. At a relatively high 233.5-point line, the under is again the bet.
Memphis may be at their lowest point of the season right now, with a five-game losing streak under their belt after a 106-114 loss to New Orleans. After leading by 10 points early in the second quarter, New Orleans came back to tie the game shortly after, before a 2-20 run from the hosts to end the third quarter saw NO take a 76-93 lead and Memphis had no response in them. There were few positives from Memphis in this game, with Jaren Jackson Jr shooting 6/19 from the floor for 16 points, nine rebounds and two assists, but his six steals and two blocks were a standout on the defensive end. Cam Spencer missed just one shot for 16 points and three assists and Jaylen Wells provided good energy for 10/4/4, but 19 turnovers from the team made it very hard for them to come out on top.
Minnesota picked up their third win on the bounce on Friday and it came in impressive fashion, beating Oklahoma City 123-111. It was a convincing performance from the hosts, as they led throughout the entire contest and barely gave OKC a sniff, leading by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter to record a statement victory against the defending champions. Anthony Edwards was the star yet again for this Minnesota side, finishing with 26 points, five rebounds, five assists and two steals in a dominant display, while Jaden McDaniels (21 points, four assists) and Rudy Gobert (14 points, 11 rebounds) provided valuable two-way contributions. Julius Randle shot poorly, going 5/14, but had five rebounds, five assists, four steals and one block to find other ways to impact the game and Naz Reid capped things off with an efficient 18 points.
It was a flat performance from Memphis on Saturday, continuing a trend of poor performances of late, and it’s hard to see them bouncing back in night two of a back-to-back on Sunday. Minnesota are in fine form and will be far too good on both ends, making for a comfortable victory.
Houston put on a defensive masterclass in their game against Atlanta on Friday to pick up a 104-86 victory. It was just as well that their defence was in full lockdown mode, as Houston’s offence failed to fire for much of the game, but a 35-24 third quarter gave them the separation that they needed to run away with the win in relatively comfortable fashion. Kevin Durant had another big offensive night, with 31 points and four assists, while Jabari Smith Jr did a bit of everything, with 14 points, eight rebounds, three steals and five blocks in a standout performance. Alperen Şengün was off his game on the offensive end, shooting 3/14 for just nine points, contributing what was generally a poor offensive evening from the visitors, but the defence of Smith, Şengün, Amen Thompson and Clint Capela made for another comfortable victory.
Dallas played out an enthralling game against Charlotte on Friday but they came up just short, losing 121-123. Trailing by two points heading into the game’s final possession, a red-hot Cooper Flagg couldn’t send the game to overtime, missing his midrange jumper attempt to seal the loss for the hosts, but that was a rare miss for Flagg in what was the best game of his young career so far. He finished with 49 points on 20/29 shooting, to go with 10 rebounds, three assists and one block in what was a dominant two-way showing from the 19-year-old. Disappointingly, help from the rest of his team was few and far between. Brandon Williams had a tidy 15 points and six assists and Klay Thompson added 16 points of his own, but the likes of PJ Washington, Max Christie, Caleb Martin and Daniel Gafford all struggled, seeing Dallas come up short.
It was a disappointing result for Dallas but they have shown some promising signs in the past two weeks, even with Anthony Davis out, and I am not expecting a blowout in Houston. Dallas’ defence has been solid for most of the season but they are now starting to find some offensive form and that will help them stay in this contest. Houston are just 8-12 ATS at home this season and Dallas are 18-14 ATS as underdogs.