The world number 1 looks to have hit her straps at the right time. After having some trouble against Potapova and Mboko, she could not miss against Jovic in a crushing 6-3 6-0 win. She won 83% of 1st serve points and saved all 5 break points that she faced. To the surprise of everyone, Svitolina was just as dominant in her upset win over Gauff – dropping only 3 games in a match that lasted 59 minutes! Tactically she played a brilliant match, attacking the Gauff forehand and regularly playing down the middle of the court to prevent her opponent from creating any angles. Replicating that against Sabalenka is not possible as the top seed possesses the serve and groundstroke power that will prevent Svitolina from staying up on the baseline. This is the 4th time Svitolina has made it through to the semi finals of a Grand Slam and her 0-3 record is concerning. Moreover, all three defeats came in straight sets and she managed to win a total of only 14 games in 6 sets played. Sabalenka leads the H2H 5-1 and has won the last 4 meetings. With 17 breaks across the last 9 sets they have played, Sabalenka is averaging almost two breaks of serve per set in this matchup. Taking into account her strength on serve, cannot see Svitolina making enough inroads in return games.
Best: Sabalenka -4.5 ($1.95)
Value: Set 1 Score After 2 Games – Sabalenka 2-0 ($3.90)
The duo of Pegula and Rybakina delivered for us in a big way yesterday. The best bets in their respective matches both saluted (Pegula +2.5 and Rybakina WIN) with the latter also thundering down 11 aces for our value play (10+ aces @ $4) also collecting. There have been several glaring similarities in the way they have crafted their way through to the semi finals. Dominance on serve and winning the big points are the two that stick out. Rybakina leads the ace count for the tournament (35) and has won 74% of 1st serve points. Pegula is slightly better at 75% in that department with both players converting 63% of break opportunities. The H2H reads 3-3 with 3 of the last 5 clashes producing 23+ total games. Rybakina has won the last two meetings with the most recent being at the WTA Tour Finals. Have previously touched on how she relished the fast conditions in Riyadh and it has been a very similar story here. She thundered down 15 aces in that match and won 73% of 1st serve points which is in line with what she has produced over the last week. Sticking with her in this one.
Best: Rybakina -3.5 ($1.92)
Value: Rybakina 10+ aces