For the first time since 1991 the top 6 seeds have all made it through to the quarter finals. The four players in action today have a long history against one another meaning the winners will likely be those who are able to produce their best tennis.
Swiatek had her way against Maddison Inglis and it came as no surprise as the Aussie was unable to put her on the back foot. The 6-time major winner faces a very different proposition today as Rybakina has the tools required to take the racquet out of Swiatek’s hands. The H2H reads 6-5 in Swiatek’s favour, but Rybakina has won two of the most important meetings – their only other clash at the Australian Open (6-4 6-4 in 2023), and their most recent clash at the WTA Tour Finals last year (3-6 6-1 6-0). Rybakina’s dominance in the 2nd and 3rd sets of that match cannot be ignored, as the match was played on a fast indoor surface and the conditions in Melbourne over the last week have been very similar to that. Another interesting fact in this series is that Rybakina holds a 2-1 edge in matches on clay – the surface that Swiatek is virtually unbeatable on. It highlights her edge in this matchup when she plays to her potential, and her form suggests she will be at her best.
Best: Rybakina WIN ($1.83)
Value: Rybakina 10+ aces ($4.00)
The United States has four women through to the quarters (Pegula, Anisimova, Jovic and Gauff) and are guaranteed at least one semi finalist from this match. Both women have something in common, and it is that they are still chasing that elusive Grand Slam title. Anisimova went awfully close at the last two majors but must first overcome her compatriot whom she has never beaten in a tour level match. Pegula leads the H2H 3-0 which includes victory in the finals of the Toronto Masters in 2024. Pegula has won 51% of 2nd serve points across their three clashes, which is significant as it means she has gotten the better of the baseline exchanges. She is up over 62% in that department for this tournament and a dominant 6-3 6-4 win over the defending champion (Madison Keys) highlights the level of tennis she has produced in Melbourne. They may end up in a third set but we will be in Pegula’s corner either way.
Best: Pegula +2.5 ($1.75)
Value: Sets Pegula 2-1 ($4.80)