Defending champion Jannik Sinner bounced back with a comfortable win while Novak Djokovic received a free pass into the quarters after Mensik withdrew from the tournament. It means they are one win away from setting up a dream showdown but the duo of Shelton and Musetti will have other ideas.
The Australian Open is Ben Shelton’s best major by a long way with the American through to the quarters for the 3rd time in the last 4 years. He made the semi’s a year ago but will need to get the better of the two-time defending champion to replicate that effort. Moreover, he will have to overcome a dreadful 1-8 H2H record in this series with his only victory being their very first clash in 2023. Sinner’s dominance in this matchup cannot be understated as he has won the last 19 sets the pair have contested! The Italian has also beaten Shelton in straight sets in all three prior battles at Grand Slam level, including last year’s semi here which ended 7-6 6-2 6-2. The fact that Shelton has only been able to break the Sinner serve once in the last 7 sets they have played emphasises the problem he will have in this contest. Unless he manages to hold serve and win tiebreakers, Shelton will be going down in straight sets.
Best: Sets Sinner 3-0 ($1.62)
Value: Set 1 Correct Score Sinner 7-6 ($4.60)
Being fresh and physically ready is one of Novak’s biggest challenges at this point of his career. Mensik withdrawing from his match is significant as it means four days between matches for him. He also meets an opponent in Musetti that he has a commanding record against. The H2H reads 9-1 in his favour and that does not include a mental advantage which started in their very first meeting. Musetti led two sets to love at the French Open in 2021 but fell apart, losing 16 of the next 17 games before retiring. He again had Djokovic on the ropes in Paris three years later but lost 6-0 in the fifth set. The pair met twice last season with both meetings on hard courts. Djokovic was untouchable in a 6-2 6-2 win at the Miami Masters but was forced to come from a set down in Athens – claiming the deciding set 7-5. Musetti was outstanding in his win over Fritz but until we see him overcome Djokovic at a major, we must trust the 10-time Australian Open champion. This could be another case of Novak squeezing out a five set win.
Best: Djokovic -4.5 ($1.87)
Value: Sets Djokovic 3-2 ($6.20)