Tournament organisers get the quarter final they wanted with Alcaraz taking on De Minaur. The Aussie is yet to make it through to the final four of a major but will have the benefit of 15,000+ screaming fans in support. Last year’s finalist Alexander Zverev will start favourite against Tien in the other quarter final but the young American just made Medvedev look like he didn’t deserve to be on the tour and is playing with no fear.
We were on the mark backing the Overs in Alcaraz’s battle against Tommy Paul but his battle against De Minaur will be very different as he will finally return to playing under the lights of Rod Laver Arena. The Aussie has dominated the night sessions of the tournament with crushing wins over Medjedovic, Tiafoe and Bublik. His 4th round win over Bublik took only 92 minutes but Alcaraz is a different beast. Nobody knows this better than De Minaur as his lifetime record against the Spaniard reads 0-5. Alcaraz has won 41% of return points in their prior battles which suggests the Aussie will find it difficult to hold serve throughout the match. De Minaur is 0-6 in Grand Slam quarter finals and will be falling to 0-7. Alcaraz has been playing in the tougher and much faster day conditions which has made it easier for his opponents to hold serve. That will not be the case year and we are about to see how big the gap is between these two players.
Declared Tien +4.5 is the BEST BET of the tournament so far and the 20-year-old delivered a masterclass by dismantling Medvedev 6-4 6-0 6-3. He was in complete control of the match and his ability to consistently get the ball deep in the court without missing is similar to what we have seen Djokovic do when at his best. The youngster will need a repeat of that here as Zverev has been serving lights out! He made more than 77% of 1st serves against Cerundolo with the Argentine opting to stand 5m behind the baseline in an attempt to get more balls back but couldn’t make enough returns. Expecting a very different outcome here as we have seen Tien handle the German’s serve in the past. The pair played on a hard court in Acapulco last year with Zverev making almost 75% of 1st serves but getting comprehensively beaten 6-3 6-4. He did get revenge on clay at Roland Garros but that is a very different surface. For the second time in as many matches, we will be taking Tien with the start.