We are down to four in the NFL with a stunner in the NFC Championship Game and an absolute humdinger in the AFC Championship clash.
Line
Denver +5: Home underdogs of four or more points are a perfect 9-0 against the spread the last 50 years in playoff games putting the Broncos in a great spot, even with Bo Nix out and backup Jarrett Stidham taking the reins. Sean Payton is 14-7 against the number with backup QBs while home team with a rest advantage are 21-7 since 2003. The value is with Denver.
Total
Under 42.5: Referee Alex Kemp is a huge under official with the under hitting in 11 of his 16 games this season while the under is 4-1 in Kemp officiated playoff games.
Touchdown
Marvin Mims ($23 First, $6 Anytime): Marvin Mims has had a very quiet season but he exploded last week with eight catches, 93 yards and a score. He will be used a lot this week with the QB change with a role in the run game and plenty of gadget plays. His speed makes him a perennial threat and he looks a great value play in this one.
SGM
RJ Harvey 40+ Rush Yards/Rhamondre Stevenson 40+ Rush Yards/Kayshon Boutte Over 38.5 Rec Yards/Adam Trautman Over 6.5 Rec Yards ($8.24): RJ Harvey has topped 40-plus rush yards in four of his last six and the Broncos will go run heavy. Adam Trautman has at least two catches in four of seven since the bye and is a trusted Sean Payton soldier. Rhamondre Stevenson has topped 40-plus yards on the ground in all six since the bye. Kayshon Boutte has seven catches for 141 yards in his two playoff games.
Line
Seattle -2.5: Home teams with a rest advantage are 21-7 in conference championships so Seattle start in a strong prop. Sam Darnold is 24-11-1 against the spread the last two seasons with Mike MacDonald 7-2 on extended prep. This is a big play-against spot for the Rams too with teams averaging 30ppg December or later covering at just 42%. Referee Bill Vinovich is an important factor too with the Seahawks 17-6 when he is in charge while the Rams are 4-11 with a 3-12 cover record.
Total
Under 47: The under hits at 58% in division matches making the under a very good bet in this conference championship affair.
Touchdown
Kenneth Walker ($5 First, $1.62 Anytime): The RB split in Seattle is over now with Zach Charbonnet ruled out. That will see a heavy workload go Kenneth Walker’s way. He dominated last week with 19 carries for 116 yards and three scores. He has loved it against the Rams this year too with scores in both regular season meetings.
SGM
Jaxson Smith-Njigba 100+ Rec Yards/Puka Nacua 100+ Rec Yards/Tyler Higbee Over 14.5 Rec Yards ($7.48): JSN has topped 100 yards eight times this season. Nacua has topped 100 yards four times the last seven weeks. Tyler Higbee has at least 23 receiving yards in his last five starts.