Day 5 looks favourable for several of the top-ranked women including Swiatek, Rybakina, Anisimova Pegula and Bencic – all of whom should progress. The same cannot be said about major champions Osaka and Ostapenko who face tricky matchups so do not be surprised if both are headed for the exits following the completion of the day’s play.
Swiatek’s opening round win over Yuan took longer than expected but she gets a favourable matchup here. She holds a 2-0 advantage in the H2H against Bouzkova which includes a 6-1 6-1 win over her in Wuhan less than six months ago. Bouzkova was able to break the Zarazua serve five times in her first round match but this match will be like her loss against Andreeva in Adelaide where she was only able to win four games. Bouzkova relies on consistency rather than raw power and shot-making – two of the keys to beating Swiatek. Far from the greatest mover laterally, Swiatek will move her from side to side before hitting behind her and capitalising on short returns. Cannot see Bouzkova winning more than a handful of games.
Anisimova is coming off the best season of her career after having made two major finals in 2025. We often see players regress after a year like that and a disappointing loss to Kostyuk in Brisbane is not a good sign. The good news is that she faces Siniakova who does not know how to progress past this stage at the majors. Siniakova has failed to make it past the 2nd Round in her last 17 Grand Slam appearances and even with a win in the opening round has a terrible 4-12 record at the Australian Open. Anisimova in straight sets.
In case you missed it, Naomi Osaka came out wearing a jelly-fish inspired outfit for her first round match and she found herself swimming in the deep end as she needed three sets to get past Ruzic. She must now contend with the very experienced Cirstea who won their only prior clash on tour – albeit more than a decade ago in the qualifiers of Wimbledon. The numbers surrounding Osaka’s win to raise concern as despite serving 11 aces, she dropped serve four times against Ruzic and won less than 35% of 2nd serve points. This one will develop into a seesawing battle that should go the distance.
It was a case of cruising to the finish line for Rybakina and her 6-4 6-3 win over Juvan was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests. She won 75% of all service points and was never threatened – something we will see a repeat of here. The H2H reads 2-0 with Rybakina dominating their prior battles. Gracheva has won a total of 6 games in four sets played against Rybakina and has not been able to get a grip on the best serve in women’s tennis. Under 18.5 games looks very enticing!
Pegula v Kessler: Pegula -4.5 ($1.75)
Bouzkova v Swiatek: Swiatek -5.5 ($1.73)
Siniakova v Anisimova: Sets Anisimova 2-0 ($1.83)
Rybakina v Gracheva: Under 18.5 games ($1.80)
Bartunkova v Bencic: Under 18.5 games ($1.92)
Osaka v Cirstea: Over 21.5 gams ($1.82)
Selekhmeteva v Badosa: Selekhmeteva +1.5 Sets ($2.10)
Tjen v Pliskova: Over 21.5 games ($1.92)
Krueger v Keys: Krueger +4.5 ($1.95)
Noskova v Preston: Preston +1.5 Sets ($2.35)
Wang v Ostapenko: Wang WIN ($1.77)
Stearns v Marcinko: Marcinko WIN ($2.10)
Fruhvirtova v Valentova: Under 19.5 games ($2.00)
Mertens v Uchijima: Mertens -5.5 ($1.75)
Inglis v Siegemund: Siegemund WIN ($1.73)
Kalinskaya v Grabher: Grabher +6.5 ($1.68)