Day 3 is a celebration of the defending champions in both draws with Madison Keys joining Jannik Sinner as the headline matches on Rod Laver Arena. Two-time Australian Open winner Naomi Osaka (2019, 2021), Elena Rybakina and the in-form Belinda Bencic are also names to keep a close eye on.
Madison Keys broke through for her first Grand Slam title in an epic final against Sabalenka but there was very little thereafter from the American in 2025. She lost in the 1st Round of the US Open and was winless in the Tour Finals. Played in Brisbane and Adelaide in the lead up losing to Sabalenka and Mboko respectively – both in the quarter finals. All that is relevant for her prospects of defending her title which are very slim, but she should not have any problems against Oliynykova who opts to play almost all her tennis on clay. Of her 80 matches played last year, 75 were on clay and the only reason she was at the US Open was to collect the opening round paycheck. The same applies here.
Ruzic has never won a Grand Slam match but success at ITF level has helped her climb the rankings – giving her automatic entry into the main draw here. It was also the case at the US Open and seems to be a winning formula with respect to earning prize money as she had failed in the qualifiers in all 7 prior attempts. Osaka does not need an introduction and it is no secret that we have consistently bet against her in recent years. She lost in straight sets to Sakkari at the United Cup and in her final tournament of last year, withdrew on home soil. The former world number has been extremely inconsistent and unpredictable of late while Ruzic is coming off a semi final showing in Hobart. Can see this one getting difficult for Osaka.
The faster the surface the better Rybakina plays. A finalist here in 2023, Rybakina possesses the best serve in women’s tennis. She led the WTA Tour in aces and 1st serve points won last year and ended the 2025 season by compiling a 5-0 record at the Tour Finals. That included wins over Anisimova, Swiatek and Sabalenka which is an indicator that she is back to her best. The only meeting between these two cam on this very court in 2023 with Rybakina posting a dominant 6-2 6-1 win. She did not face a single break point in that match and I expect a repeat of that here.
Boulter was close to cracking the top 20 in 2024 but less than 18 months later she finds herself outsider the top 100. Wedding plans may be part of the problem but there is no doubt that the fiancé of Alex De Minaur will have the crowd on her side. The issue for her is that the crowd will not help her get past Bencic who is on a tear! She went 5-0 in singles at the United Cup which includes wins over Mertens and Swiatek. Boulter has failed to make it past the 2nd round in her last 8 major appearances and will not cause Bencic any trouble whatsoever.
Oliynykova v Keys: Under 17.5 games ($1.60)
Osaka v Ruzic: Ruzic +1.5 Sets ($2.10)
Rybakina v Juvan: Rybakina -6.5 ($1.73)
Boulter v Bencic: Bencic -5.5 ($1.80)
Valentova v Joint: Over 20.5 games ($1.80)
Inglis v Birrell: Inglis +3.5 ($1.95)
Pliskova v Stephens: Over 20.5 games ($1.78)
Sramkova v Ostapenko: Sramkova WIN ($1.96)
Siegemund v Samsonova: Siegemund +5.5 ($1.70)
Fernandez v Tjen: Sets Fernandez 2-0 ($1.88)
Kasatkina v Bartunkova: Kasatkina WIN ($1.42)
Gracheva v Golubic: Gracheva WIN ($1.91)
Wang v Kalinina: Wang WIN ($1.68)
Sun v Fruhvirtova: Under 21.5 games ($1.90)
Kalinskaya v Kartal: Kartal WIN ($2.10)
Cirstea v Lys: Cirstea WIN ($1.83)
Udvardy v Siniakova: Under 19.5 games ($1.70)
Grabher v Cocciaretto: Grabher +1.5 Sets ($1.95)