Sabalenka was a set away from completing a three-peat down under but fell short against Madison Keys who finally fulfilled a life-long dream. It had been almost 8 years since the American made her maiden major final on home soil (lost to Stephens) but her form since claiming her first Grand Slam title has been questionable to say the least. The trio of Gauff, Swiatek and Sabalenka won the subsequent majors last year but there is a wave of teenagers making a serious impact on the WTA Tour including Andreeva, Mboko, Joint, Jovic and Valentova.
Elena Rybakina ($9.00): When she’s at the top of her game, Rybakina is close to unstoppable. Last season was a lean year at the majors but the former finalist here in 2023 finished the season with a bang. She went 5-0 at the WTA Tour Finals beating Anisimova, Swiatek, Alexandrova, Pegula and Sabalenka. She possesses effortless power and has the best serve on tour. Rybakina led the WTA Tour in aces and 1st serve points won in 2025 and finds herself in a nice section of the draw.
Mirra Andreeva ($17): It is no secret that I like following players in form leading into the majors and Andreeva gets a big tick in that department having made the final of the Adelaide International. She finished runner-up in the Girls’ Singles here three years ago as a 15-year-old and is ready to take the next step. Continues to improve on serve which is critical to success at the highest level and is always looking to take the ball early and play the lines. Can lean on the slice when she needs to defend and is very effective at turning defence into attack. Have already pencilled her in to be playing in the second week.
Victoria Mboko ($29): Made an instant impact when she won the Canadian Open beating Gauff, Bencic, Rybakina and Osaka along the way. The dip that followed was not a surprise as she lost her next four matches on tour. She didn’t stay down for long and claimed a second career title in Hong Kong. Judging by her performance in Adelaide she has made further improvement in the off season and if she can keep her second serve under control, she can go all the way here. Could face Sabalenka in the 4th Round which will be a huge indicator as to where she is mentally.
Iva Jovic ($151): Jovic completes our teenage trio (Andreeva and Mboko) and is still only 18 years of age. She has been a winner at every level starting with the Under 14s Orange Bowl and in the junior majors where she made three consecutive finals – winning two (including here). Has made an excellent start to the season with back-to-back semi finals in Auckland and Hobart and is in a section of the draw that lacks power hitters. We will be backing her in the games handicap market for as long as she is in the tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka ($2.88): If she was closer to $4 then Sabalenka would be the top selection but cannot take the price on offer when you consider the depth of the field and the players she would need to beat on the way. Admittedly, she breezed to the title in Brisbane without dropping a set but her potential path to the title here could include battles against Mboko, Tauson, Paolini and Gauff among others. Happy to be around her.
Iga Swiatek ($6.50): The Australian Open is the only major that Swiatek has not won with a run to the semi finals last year equalling her best performance. Went 1-2 at the Tour Finals which was a disappointing result and was underwhelming at the United Cup where she lost to Gauff and Bencic. No thanks.
Amanda Anisimova ($9.00): Made two Grand Slam finals last year but I cannot see her repeating that effort in 2026. Won the China Open in the tail end of last year which was just reward for her form, but it does not equate to a Grand Slam. Should be closer to 20-1.
Cori Gauff ($10): Bowed out to Badosa in straight sets in the quarter finals a year ago and her recent form against the world’s best is questionable. Last year she arrived in Melbourne having won the Tour Finals and led the USA to victory in the United Cup on the back of a 5-0 record in the singles. Is not in that type of for this time around and could face some tricky opposition in the first week including Bouzas Maneiro who she lost to at the United Cup a fortnight ago.
Jessica Pegula ($34): Weeks away from turning 32, the ship has sailed for Pegula. She made her maiden major final at the US Open in 2024 but has never made it past the quarters in Melbourne. She was embarrassed 6-0 6-3 by Kostyuk in Brisbane and on that result alone we will be steering clear.
Maria Sakkari ($251): She may be a fan favourite in Melbourne but has lost in the 1st Round in 7 of her last 12 Grand Slam appearances. Her best result during that stretch is the 3rd Round and we will continue to back against her in the early rounds.
Former Grand Slam Champions: Zero interest in a host of Grand Slam champions including Osaka, Raducanu, Venus Williams, Krejcikova, Ostapenko and Stephens who came through the qualifiers. We will be backing against most of them in the opening round.
Winner
Best: Rybakina ($9.00), Andreeva ($17)
Value: Mboko ($29), Jovic ($151)
Quarter Betting
Quarter 1: Mboko ($6.50), Jovic ($23)
Quarter 2: Andreeva ($3.40), Bouzas Maneiro ($151)
Quarter 3: Badosa ($13), Fernandez ($13)
Quarter 4: Rybakina ($3.00), Bencic ($9.00)